It's the Oscars tonight, which seemed like a good excuse to get back on here and do another predictions blog! As before, I'll list the nominees in each category with a star by the ones I've actually managed to see. Then I'll say which film I think should win and why.

Best Picture
Nominees
* The Big Short
* Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
* Mad Max: Fury Road
* The Martian
* The Revenant
Room
* Spotlight

Winner
The Revenant

I would be very surprised if anything other than the Revenant wins the big one this year. It's swept up the top awards in most of the other awards ceremonies that build up to the Oscars, such as the BAFTAs and various Guild awards, and with good reason. Everything about it is completely different from any other film in recent memory. It's intense and exciting, but also character driven and emotional, and at the same time beautifully and artfully shot. The special effects, especially in the bear attack scene, are so flawless that you barely even notice they are special effects. The Academy likes filmmakers to suffer for their art, and the various stories of the actors and crew submitting themselves to the real harsh conditions in the North American wilderness will play into that well. The other nominations are all great, but Revenant is the clear favourite and the one to beat.  
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees
Bryan Cranston - Trumbo
* Matt Damon - The Martian
* Leonardo DiCaprio - The Revenant
* Michael Fassbender - Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne - The Danish Girl

Winner
Leonardo DiCaprio - The Revenant

When the first picture was released of Eddie Redmayne in costume for the Danish Girl almost a year ago, I thought he was a shoo-in for this category. He won it last year, and everything about the character is almost custom built to appeal to the Academy - a period drama about a historical figure overcoming adversity was bound to get a nomination. Then I saw Michael Fassbender in Steve Jobs, which was an outstanding performance. He managed to make Jobs completely unlikeable, yet at the same time sympathetic and impossible not to root for. It's great to see Cranston and Damon getting some well deserved recognition too, but this has to be Leo's year. His performance in the Revenant was incredible. Every moment of physical and emotional pain played out over his face as if Tom Hardy was standing just behind the camera holding a knife to his actual children. Plus of course, his lack of an Oscar to date has become a running joke. If he doesn't win it this year, after putting himself through so much in filming the Revenant, the Academy might inadvertently break Leonardo DiCaprio. And probably also the internet.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees
Cate Blanchett - Carol
Brie Larson - Room
Jennifer Lawrence - Joy
Charlotte Rampling - 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan - Brooklyn

Winner
Brie Larson - Room

To my genuine shame and regret, I didn't manage to see any of the films in this category, so I'll have to base my prediction purely on past success. Cate Blanchett and Jennifer Lawrence both have some serious Oscar pedigree - Blanchett's been nominated six times and won twice, and this is Lawrence's fourth nomination in the last six years, winning one of them. Saoirse Ronan is also a fantastic actress - she's only 21 and this is already her second Oscar nomination. I don't know so much about Brie Larson, but she seems to be the one to beat this year. She's already won the BAFTA, Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild awards and it's very unlikely that the Academy will vote any differently. 
Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees
* Christian Bale - The Big Short
* Tom Hardy - The Revenant
* Mark Ruffalo - Spotlight
* Mark Rylance - Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone - Creed

Winner
Mark Ruffalo

This is a much harder one to predict. I think with the controversy about the 'whitewashed Oscars' this year, the Academy wouldn't dare give the award to Sylvester Stallone, given that it would highlight the fact that they snubbed Michael B Jordan in the same film. That said, he did win the Golden Globe. Any of the other four nominees would be deserving winners though. Mark Rylance won the BAFTA which I think probably makes him the favourite, Tom Hardy was incredibly horrible in the Revenant, and Christian Bale was so good in The Big Short that he actually managed to make his eyes move independently, which I was probably more impressed by than I should have been. I would love to see Mark Ruffalo win it though, and I'm going to go with my heart and make him my prediction. His furious speech in Spotlight as he tried to comprehend why they should wait to print a story that would stop a priest from victimising children was magnificent and really stuck with me long after I left the cinema. I would be quite happy to see any of the nominees whose films I saw win though. 
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees
* Jennifer Jason Leigh - The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara - Carol
* Rachel McAdams - Spotlight
Alicia Vikander - The Danish Girl
* Kate Winslet - Steve Jobs

Winner
Kate Winslet

When I saw Steve Jobs, I genuinely didn't recognise Kate Winslet, and spent a large part of the film thinking 'they've managed to find a really good Polish actress here.' She was so good that I actually thought she was Polish (which, incidentally, is a really hard accent to try and impersonate). That aside, her performance was brilliant, lending the film some moments of heightened emotion that perfectly offset the impenetrable calm of Fassbender's Jobs. Winslet has already won the BAFTA and the Golden Globe which has to make her the favourite here too. Alicia Vikander stands a good chance as well though - she won the Screen Actors Guild award and has had a fantastic year between Ex Machina and The Danish Girl (with a fun role in The Man From U.N.C.L.E. thrown in the middle), but I think on balance this will probably go to Kate Winslet. 
Animated Feature Film
Nominees
Anomalisa
Boy and the World
* Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There

Winner
Inside Out

It's very unusual for me to have only seen one of the nominations for animated film this year, but I would be very surprised if the one that I saw doesn't win. Inside Out was a masterpiece, and a strong contender for the best film Pixar have ever made. It was not only one of the most intelligently thought out animated films of all time, but possibly one of the most intelligent films of the year, animated or not. The characters were all beautifully written, the music was wonderful, and everything about it brought me back to my own childhood in a way that very few films have ever managed. There's lots of bright colours and neat little gags for kids to appreciate, but there's so much more that adults will understand on a really deep level. The film's about the loss of childhood innocence, and how embracing negative emotions like sadness can help you lead a fuller life. It then helps you to embrace sadness by making you cry uncontrollably over a pink elephant-cat-dolphin hybrid called Bing Bong. The credits scenes were also the funniest thing I've seen all year. I'm sure the other films were great - Aardman (Shaun the Sheep) and Studio Ghibli (When Marnie Was There) are both fantastic animation studios that completely deserve any praise and awards they get, but Pixar really are the masters of the medium and they really achieved something special this year. 
Cinematography
Nominees
Carol
* The Hateful Eight
* Mad Max: Fury Road
* The Revenant
* Sicario

Winner
The Revenant

It may start to seem a bit repetitive that I am predicting everything for the Revenant, but this is arguably the category where it most deserves the award. You could take any frame of the film and it would work as a piece of art. The lighting is beautiful, which is even more impressive given that they used only natural lighting, limiting their filming to a few hours a day when the Sun was at the right angle. Equally impressive is the camera movement. The clip above in which Leo rides away from the Native Americans has the camera following Leo next to his horse, glancing back as he does, and dodging arrows and axes. It's as frantic and nerve-wracking as the action itself, and throws you right into the film in a way that the other nominees don't manage half as well. The Hateful Eight and Mad Max were both beautifully shot too, but this has to go to the Revenant. It's worth noting as well that if it does win, this will be cinematographer Emmanuel Lubezki's third win in a row, after Gravity and Birdman.
Costume Design
Nominees
Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
* Mad Max: Fury Road
* The Revenant

Winner
Mad Max: Fury Road

Mad Max won this at the BAFTAs and deservedly so. The costumes in Cinderella looked like they were great (it almost looked like the film was built around them), and obviously the plot of the Danish Girl means the outfits are a big theme for the film, but I think it's brilliant to see steampunk gas masks and warrior leathers winning out over pretty dresses and period outfits this year. Plus the Academy might want to try to redress Stephen Fry's controversial bag lady gag from the BAFTAs...
Best Director
Nominees
* Adam McKay - The Big Short
* George Miller - Mad Max: Fury Road
* Alejandro G Iñárritu - The Revenant
Lenny Abrahamson - Room
* Tom McCarthy - Spotlight

Winner
Alejandro G Iñárritu - The Revenant

For all the reasons I've already gone on about, I'm pretty sure this will go to Iñárritu for his work on the Revenant. His artistic vision is incredible and for every other award this film inevitably wins he deserves this one even more for bringing it all together. If he wins, having won for Birdman last year, he will be the first director to win back-to-back Oscars in 66 years. He has already won the Golden Globe, the BAFTA and the Directors Guild Award so is clearly the favourite here too. 

Editing
Nominees
* The Big Short
* Mad Max: Fury Road
* The Revenant
* Spotlight
* Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Winner
Mad Max: Fury Road

This could just as easily go to the Revenant again, but as it took the BAFTA I'm going to predict Mad Max again for this one. Max's visions of his past haunting him made for some very well put-together sequences which really helped justify the name of the film. The editing was used, as it should be, to add to the mood and tone of the film, making it claustrophobic and frantic in the fortress, yet free and open on the road in the calmer scenes, and tense and exciting in the chases and fights. 

Music - Original Score
Nominees
* Thomas Newman - Bridge of Spies
Carter Burwell - Carol
* Ennio Morricone - The Hateful Eight
* Jóhann Jóhannsson - Sicario
* John Williams - Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Winner
John Williams - Star Wars - The Force Awakens

John Williams and Ennio Morricone are two of the greatest film composers of all time. Williams' scores for so many films, including the original Star Wars, Jurassic Park, Indiana Jones, E.T., Harry Potter, Jaws, and so many more, are about as classic as they come, whereas Morricone's incredible theme for The Good, The Bad and The Ugly will always be one of my absolute favourites. Morricone won the BAFTA and the Golden Globe for the Hateful Eight this year, and has every chance of winning the Oscar too. And he would deserve it - the Hateful Eight's soundtrack was every bit as tense and atmospheric as the rest of the film. But again, I'm going to go with my heart and say John Williams should win this. Star Wars has one of the most iconic soundtracks of all time, and the score for the latest film manages to hold onto many of the original themes as well as adding some lovely new ones. Rey's theme is particularly beautiful, full of mysterious atmosphere and playful riffs, but hearing Han and Leia's theme again after so long is also a highlight. I suspect the Academy will probably give it to Morricone, but for me it has to be Williams. 
Visual Effects
Nominees
* Ex Machina
* Mad Max: Fury Road
* Star Wars: The Force Awakens
* The Martian
* The Revenant

Winner
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

This is potentially quite a tough one to call. Ex Machina's humanesque android is a beautifully rendered and believable CG character. Mad Max used practical effects as much as possible to incredible effect. The Martian had some brilliantly realised otherworldly landscapes and space scenes. And the bear attack in the Revenant was a seamless blend of the CG bear and live action landscape and actors. Star Wars though had all of those advantages - CG characters were perfectly blended in to a world created using practical effects as much as reasonably possible, with exotic landscapes and space shots in abundance. On top of that, there were lightsabers, spaceships, blasters, monsters, quicksand, battles, explosions, and all sorts of other effects heavy moments that merit this award.  
Writing - Adapted Screenplay
Nominees
* The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
* The Martian
Room

Winner
The Big Short

The Big Short has a lot of nominations this year, and I think this is its best chance at a win. The screenplay was fantastic - it was funny and entertaining and you really get behind the characters, feeling elated when things start to go their way, only to be brought crashing back down to Earth when someone turns round and reminds you that their victory means the destruction of the world's economy. It also takes a very difficult subject to understand, i.e. the complexities of investment banking and economics, and explains it in a way that the average cinema-goer can follow. If it takes Margot Robbie in a bubble bath to do that, then that just adds to its genius...
Writing - Original Screenplay
Nominees
* Bridge of Spies
* Ex Machina
* Inside Out
* Spotlight
* Straight Outta Compton

Winner
Spotlight

Like The Big Short, Spotlight has a lot of nominations this year but if it only goes away with one win, it will be for the writing. Again, it takes a very serious subject - the institutional protection of paedophile priests by the Catholic Church - and tells it in a way that is both respectful and very entertaining. Also like The Big Short, you find yourself wanting the protagonists to win, by uncovering this story and blowing it open for the world to see, but at the same time you know that the more success they have, the worse the situation really is. The fact that it's based on a true story makes it even more poignant. I would love to see Inside Out win this award, and the other three nominees would also be worthy winners, but I think it's going to go to Spotlight and I am very happy for it to do so. 
...And the rest

I don't have time to write about the others in so much detail now, or I'll still be going when they start reading out the winners. So, just quickly, here are my predictions for the other categories:

Documentary (Feature)
Nominees
Amy
Cartel Land
The Look of Silence
What Happened, Miss Simone
Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight For Freedom

Winner
Amy (the only one I've heard of, so I can't easily predict this one!)

Documentary (Short Subject)
Nominees
Body Team 12
Chau, Beyond the Lines
Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
Last Day of Freedom

Winner
A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness (I know nothing about any of these, but judging by the posters this looks like it has the most poignant subject matter, which tends to score well in awards season)

Foreign Language Film
Nominees
Embrace of the Serpent
Mustang
Son of Saul
Theeb
A War

Winner
Theeb (I remember this doing well at the BAFTAs and it looked like an interesting film that was made well on a shoestring budget. That said, Embrace of the Serpent has a much better name...)

Makeup & Hairstyling
Nominees
* Mad Max: Fury Road
The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared
* The Revenant

Winner
Mad Max: Fury Road (the look of the characters in this film was extremely striking and the makeup and hairstyling was a big part of that. You could tell a lot about the world the characters were from just by looking at their faces)

Music - Original Song
Nominees
Earned It - Fifty Shades of Grey
Manta Ray - Racing Extinction
Simple Song #3 - Youth
Til it Happens To You - The Hunting Ground
* Writing's on the Wall - Spectre

Winner
Manta Ray - Racing Extinction (probably my favourite having listened to a quick excerpt of each on Youtube. Writing's on the Wall is good as well though)

Production Design
Nominees
Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant

Winner
Mad Max: Fury Road (The look of the vehicles and settings was incredible - the rig with the flamethrowing guitarist alone deserves to win the production designer this award)

Short Film (Animated)
Nominees
Bear Story
Prologue
* Sanjay's Super Team
We Can't Live Without Cosmos
World of Tomorrow

Winner
Sanjay's Super Team (Beautiful bit of Pixar loveliness that was shown ahead of The Good Dinosaur. Heartwarming, well animated, and takes me back to watching Saturday morning cartoons as a kid)

Short Film (Live Action)
Nominees
Ave Maria
Day One
Everything Will Be OK
Shok
Stutterer

Winner
Not a clue - I know nothing about any of them. Lets say... Stutterer.

Sound Editing
Nominees
* Mad Max: Fury Road
* The Martian
* The Revenant
* Sicario
* Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Winner
The Revenant (Lots of nicely layered sound creating the atmosphere of the wilderness)

Sound Mixing
Nominees
* Bridge of Spies
* Mad Max: Fury Road
* The Martian
* The Revenant
* Star Wars

Winner
Star Wars (lots of special effects and some iconic sounds to go with them)

Unfortunately I forgot to request tomorrow off work and I won't be able to stay up to watch the Oscars without knowing I can recover my sleep the next day, so I'll have to wait til the morning to see how well I did...



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    Sam Edwards is a recent graduate in Film & Television living in Birmingham

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