​Having run out of time last year, my Oscars prediction blog is back! I have managed to see a lot of the big contenders this year so hopefully this will be relatively insightful. As usual, I'll list the nominees first and mark with a * those that I've seen, and then give my prediction. So without further ado, I'll dive straight into the big categories. 

Best Picture
Nominees
* Top Gun: Maverick
* Women Talking
* Everything Everywhere All At Once
* The Banshees of Inisherin
* Triangle of Sadness
* The Fabelmans
* All Quiet on the Western Front
* Avatar: The Way of Water
* Elvis
* Tár

Prediction
Everything Everywhere All At Once

There are a few very strong contenders for Best Film this year. All Quiet on the Western Front won the BAFTA, the Fabelmans (drama) and Banshees of Inisherin (musical or comedy) won the Golden Globes, and Everything Everywhere All At Once won the equivalent award at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. Any of those would be a worthy winner. I think it is unlikely to go to Top Gun or Avatar, which were both hugely successful blockbusters the like of which rarely do well at the Oscars (although the fact that they have been nominated is a good sign that the Academy is starting to realise that filmmaking quality and box office success are not always mutually exclusive). At the other end of the spectrum, Women Talking and Triangle of Sadness both had very limited releases and so haven't pulled the audience numbers that most of the other nominees have, which probably limits their chances too. I think All Quiet probably had a better chance at the BAFTAs given that the UK (and the rest of Europe) gets very sentimental over anything to do with WW1 or WW2 in a way that the American Academy probably doesn't. For me personally, the two favourites here are Everything Everywhere and Banshees. They're both original stories told well with a lot of humour but also some beautiful drama and character studies. I think of the two, Everything Everywhere has a slight edge in that it has a much more out-there concept but manages to wrangle it in a way that's very easy for the audience to follow. And I would love for the Best Picture winner to be a film that partly takes place in a universe where everyone has hot dogs for fingers and in which its most touching scene features two rocks with googly eyes. But if Banshees wins I will not be shedding any tears over getting this wrong. 

​Best Actor
Nominees
* Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
* Austin Butler (Elvis)
* Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
* Bill Nighy (Living)
* Paul Mescal (Aftersun)

Prediction
Brendan Fraser (The Whale)

There has been a lot of talk about this being Brendan Fraser's big comeback year, although he hasn't actually won as many of the build-up awards as you might expect - he won the Screen Actors Guild award but Austin Butler won both the BAFTA and Golden Globe for drama, and Colin Farrell won the Golden Globe for musical/comedy. Both of them would also be worthy winners. Butler embodied Elvis magnificently - nowadays with all the cheesy impersonators and the public memory of Elvis in his declining years, it's very easy to forget just how big a stage presence and sex symbol he was in his prime, but Austin Butler sells that image completely. And Colin Farrell gives a beautiful performance as a man trying to understand why his best friend is suddenly refusing to talk to him. It's sympathetic and nuanced and hard to believe that this is the same man who was buried under prosthetics playing the Penguin in this year's Batman reboot. But Brendan Fraser (buried under even more prosthetics as a morbidly obese father in The Whale) gave such an incredible performance that he fully deserves the buzz he's been getting. He is warm, believable and utterly heartbreaking. And the Hollywood elite is very well aware that it owes Fraser some love after what it's put him through, which might give him the edge over Butler and Farrell.

​For the record, Nighy and Mescal both thoroughly deserve the recognition too - Living and Aftersun are beautiful films that stay with you for a long time afterwards, and a big part of that is the two central performances. But Nighy is the sort of actor who could do that in his sleep, and Mescal is just starting out in his career (with a very low budget indie film, unlike the similarly fresh-faced Butler who headlined a massive Baz Luhrmann blockbuster) so doesn't quite have the clout that the other nominees do. I'm really glad they've both been nominated but I don't think they'll win it.

​Best Actress
Nominees
Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie)
* Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
* Cate Blanchett (Tár)
Ana de Armas (Blonde)
* Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

Prediction
Cate Blanchett (Tár)

I haven't managed to see To Leslie or Blonde yet, but I think they can both be discounted - there is too much controversy over how Andrea Riseborough was nominated, and although Ana de Armas's performance in Blonde is supposed to be brilliant, the way Marilyn Monroe's character was written in that film was not very well received in Hollywood. I would be very surprised if this is the last time de Armas is nominated though - she is regularly described as the best part of the scenes she appears in (see also: Knives Out, The Gray Man, No Time To Die, the trailer for Yesterday). Michelle Williams is always great but I think the favourites this year are Yeoh (who won the SAG award and the Globe for musical/comedy) and Blanchett (who won the BAFTA and the Globe for drama). Given that, I suspect, Everything Everywhere is going to do well in a lot of other categories, I think the Academy will give this one to Blanchett for her excellent performance as a gifted but morally corrupt orchestra conductor in Tár. She starts the film as a commanding presence but lets the little fractures in her psyche start to gradually show as the film plays out, until she breaks down completely by the end in a totally believable way. It's one of the best performances in Blanchett's already very impressive career and I would love to see her take the win, but again I wouldn't be unhappy if Yeoh picks it up instead.

​Best Supporting Actor
Nominees
* Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)
* Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
* Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
* Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

Prediction
Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

I think this is another battle between Banshees and Everything Everywhere. Brendan Gleeson has long been one of my favourite actors and is typically brilliant in Banshees - the fact that this is his first and only Oscar nomination is a real shame. Barry Keoghan has memorably popped up in a lot of films in recent years and it's great to see him getting recognised, plus he won the BAFTA so has to be in with a bit of a shout here too. But for me this has to go to Ke Huy Quan. He is the heart and soul of Everything Everywhere, playing a range of different characters in different universes who all have some sort of relationship with Michelle Yeoh's lead character and so function as a sort of emotional anchor saving her from getting lost. He is also the source of most of the exposition and most of the humour, as well as a good chunk of the action scenes. He is, literally, everything everywhere all at once. Plus if he wins then Short Round will have won more Oscars than Indiana Jones, which is (as Short Round would put it) very funny. 

​Best Supporting Actress
Nominees
* Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
* Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
* Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
* Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All At Once) 
* Hong Chau (The Whale)

Prediction
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)

I think this is the widest of the acting categories and the toughest one to call. Kerry Condon won the BAFTA, Angela Bassett won the Golden Globe and Jamie Lee Curtis won the SAG award, so they are probably the favourites - Hsu and Chau both absolutely deserve to be in the list as well though. Kerry Condon was in a British/Irish film which probably gave her an edge in the BAFTAs that she might not have here, so the strongest contenders are probably Bassett and Lee Curtis. The Academy likes to show how diverse it is after the #Oscarssowhite campaign, and this year there are only two black actors across any of the acting categories (the other being Brian Tyree Henry for Causeway, which nobody has seen), so this is likely their only opportunity to avoid another year of racism allegations by giving the award to Angela Bassett. It would be a worthy win too - Wakanda Forever was not as good as the first Black Panther film, suffering as it did from a big Chadwick Boseman-shaped hole, but Bassett's performance more than any of the others in the film really felt like it carried the emotional weight of Boseman's on-screen and off-screen loss. Jamie Lee Curtis is excellent in Everything Everywhere. Like Ke Huy Quan she has to play a range of different characters as they appear in different universes, from a possessed bureaucrat to a hot dog-fingered lesbian, and you can tell she jumped on all of them with relish (no pun intended). But I think the Academy will give it to Bassett.

​Best Director
Nominees
* Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
* Todd Field (Tár)
* Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness)
* Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
* Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)

Prediction
Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

This is another strong category and tough one to call. All the directors here have been nominated for films that have also had nods in a host of other categories. Directing combines a number of skills, one of the most important of which is coaxing a strong performance from your cast, so based on their full sweeps of the acting nominations the biggest contenders are arguably McDonagh and Daniels. Spielberg has to be in the running too, having won the Golden Globe (and, you know, being as he is Steven Spielberg). The Fabelmans is semi-autobiographical and a deeply personal film to Spielberg, and although that really shines through beautifully, it can come across as slightly self-congratulatory which might put voters off. Of the other two, I think if McDonagh was going to win anything he would have won the BAFTA, which instead went to Edward Berger for All Quiet on the Western Front (not even nominated here). So I'm going to take that as a sign that this is more likely to go to Daniels. 

​Best Original Screenplay
Nominees
* Everything Everywhere All At Once
* The Banshees of Inisherin
* Triangle of Sadness
* The Fabelmans
* Tár

Prediction
The Banshees of Inisherin

This is a toss-up between Banshees and Everything Everywhere. I'm very conscious that I keep saying 'this is a toss-up between Banshees and Everything Everywhere' and then giving it to Everything Everywhere, and it would be criminal if Banshees doesn't win something, so I am predicting the Academy has the same thought process and awards this one to Banshees. Although it's a much more straightforward concept than Everything Everywhere, Banshees relies more heavily on its script for both humour and drama, which it balances beautifully. It also won the BAFTA and the Globe, although Everything Everywhere took Original Screenplay at the Writers Guild of America awards. It could go either way but the writing in Banshees is so good it just has the edge for me. 

​Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees
* Living
* Top Gun: Maverick
* Women Talking
* Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story
* All Quiet on the Western Front

Prediction
Women Talking

I don't think this will go to Top Gun or Glass Onion, which are both perfectly well-written films but seem a bit on the commercial side for this category and aren't outstanding enough scripts to overcome that. Living is beautifully written but is probably not a great bet as it hasn't had the Best Picture nomination that the other two (and Top Gun) have. That leaves All Quiet on the Western Front, which won the BAFTA, and Women Talking, which won the WGA award. It's a really close call between the two but Women Talking, as the title suggests, is a very talky film. It lives and dies on the strength of its script whereas All Quiet has a lot of action and excitement to plug the gaps between the dialogues. On that basis Women Talking seems to me to have the edge. Plus, as mentioned earlier, All Quiet probably resonated more with British audiences whose history lessons at school covered the two World Wars to (as I understand it) a far greater extent than those in America, which would give a film like All Quiet an advantage at the BAFTAs that might not be repeated across the pond (hence not getting the WGA award). I could be wrong, but I'm predicting Women Talking.

​Best Animated Feature
Nominees
* Turning Red
* Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio
* Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
* The Sea Beast
* Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Prediction
Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio

This is probably the easiest category to predict, as Pinocchio (and, specifically, Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio and not the awful Disney live action remake or the even more awful Russian one) has swept the board with the other awards ceremonies in this category. The others are some strong entries - Turning Red is fun and inventive, and you should never dismiss Pixar in this category, but it came out a while back now which will have hurt its chances. The Sea Beast is basically How To Train Your Dragon on a boat, which is no bad thing, but it isn't as good as any of the HTTYD films and if they didn't win any Oscars then this shouldn't either. Puss In Boots was far better than a sequel to a spin-off to a sequel to a Dreamworks film has any right to be, but I think audiences might have (wrongly) dismissed it as a franchise cash-in and not given it the attention it deserves. Marcel the Shell With Shoes On is absolutely beautiful and I think is the strongest contender to Pinocchio, but at this point this is Pinocchio's to lose. Like everything Guillermo Del Toro makes, it's dark and twisted but also sweet and soulful. The stop-motion animation is richly textured and stylised and just feels like a lot more work has gone into it than any of the other nominees. 

​Best International Feature Film
Nominees
* All Quiet on the Western Front
Argentina, 1985
The Quiet Girl
Close
* EO

Prediction
All Quiet on the Western Front

This one feels like it's more of a logic-based prediction than needing any actual film analysis. All Quiet on the Western Front has been nominated for Best Picture (and many other categories) whereas none of the other films have any other nominations. If All Quiet is declared the best film of the year (which isn't beyond the realms of possibility - it won the BAFTA) then it would be ridiculous for them to say in this category that actually The Quiet Girl is better. It kind of has to win Best International Feature by default. Out of the other nominees I've only seen EO, which was great and very different to anything else that I've watched this year but doesn't have the same blockbuster qualities that All Quiet has. Argentina, 1985 is meant to be very good too. But this has to go to All Quiet.

​Best Documentary Feature
Nominees
All That Breathes
Fire of Love
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
A House Made of Splinters
Navalny

Prediction
Navalny

I had every intention of seeing All the Beauty and the Bloodshed but it only seemed to be on once in one cinema near me and I managed to miss it. I also meant to watch Fire of Love, which is on Netflix, but haven't found the time to do that either. And the others have passed me by completely, so I can't comment much on this category. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed had some excellent reviews and the trailer looked fun, and it won Best Doc at the Independent Spirit Awards, so that is definitely a contender. Navalny won the BAFTA and the Audience Award at Sundance, so that has to be the other big favourite. Being as it is about the attempted assassination of a former Russian opposition leader, I suspect Navalny might get a few extra political votes so maybe that will give it the edge. Also I just looked up a clip to add below and it looks great.

​Best Original Score
Nominees
* Justin Hurwitz (Babylon)
* Son Lux (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
* Carter Burwell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
* John Williams (The Fabelmans)
* Volker Bertelmann (All Quiet on the Western Front)

Prediction
Justin Hurwitz (Babylon)

There are plenty of potential winners here. John Williams deserves all the awards he can get, Bertelmann won the BAFTA, and there is no reason not to think that Son Lux or Carter Burwell will continue the theme of Everything Everywhere and Banshees winning everything (everywhere). But Babylon was one of the few films this year where I left the cinema with the soundtrack going through my head. It's exciting and jazzy and really captures the madcap energy of the film. I'm listening to the track embedded below as I write this and tapping my foot and trying to resist the urge to type in time to the music. Plus Hurwitz (and Babylon's director Damien Chazelle) are owed a bit of love by the Academy after the whole La La Land fiasco, and Hurwitz already won the Golden Globe in this category this year. 

​Best Original Song
Nominees
Naatu Naatu - M. M. Keeravani, Chandrapose (RRR)
* This Is A Life - Mitski, David Byrne, Ryan Lott (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
* Lift Me Up - Rihanna, Tems, Ryan Coogler (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
* Hold My Hand - Lady Gaga, Bloodpop (Top Gun: Maverick)
Applause - Diane Warren (Tell It Like A Woman)

Prediction
Naatu Naatu - M. M. Keeravani, Chandrapose (RRR)

All five of these songs are on YouTube and I'll embed them below. Lift Me Up is quite nice, This Is A Life grows on you and is probably my second favourite to win, Hold My Hand is a Big Movie Ballad that sounds like any other Big Movie Ballad, and Applause is just plain dull (Diane Warren has been nominated for an Oscar fourteen times now and hasn't won once, which is probably because her writing is so generic that at this point I don't think anyone would notice if she was just recycling the same tune with different lyrics each year). Naatu Naatu is the most fun and memorable of the five by such a long way that I'm amazed the others even got nominated. Seriously, listen to each of them (and watch the videos) in turn, save Naatu Naatu for last, and see if you can even hum any of Applause afterwards. The Academy often embraces its childish side with this category (see for example the many Disney songs that have won over the years, or the 2012 winner Man Or Muppet) so the idea of them rewarding a film where a man uses a leopard as a ballistic weapon is not completely ridiculous. 

​Best Cinematography
Nominees
* Roger Deakins (Empire of Light)
* James Friend (All Quiet on the Western Front)
Darius Khondji (Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)
* Mandy Walker (Elvis)
* Florian Hoffmeister (Tár)

Prediction
Mandy Walker (Elvis)

I'm not sure about this one, but Walker has just won the American Society of Cinematographers award, becoming the first woman to do so, and it feels like the Academy will want to follow suit. Elvis did have some incredible cinematography - the staging of the shows and the riotous use of light and colour made a lot of the film feel like an extended music video. Roger Deakins is a legend and deserves a mention, but Empire of Light hasn't had much love in the other categories so probably isn't much in the running, and I haven't even heard of Bardo outside of this list so I expect Khondji is unlikely to win too. James Friend won the BAFTA but again I don't know if the American Academy will be as excited about All Quiet as the British Academy were. And Tár was beautifully shot but it felt like the cinematography melded into the overall look of the film rather than being front and centre as it was in Elvis. 

​Best Film Editing
Nominees
* Top Gun: Maverick
* Everything Everywhere All At Once
* The Banshees of Inisherin
* Elvis
* Tár

Prediction
Everything Everywhere All At Once

In a film that takes place in multiple universes simultaneously, good editing is vital not just to sell the concept but also to make sure the audience understands what is going on and where they are at any given point. The fact that Everything Everywhere manages to do this so naturally is really quite impressive. It won the BAFTA and the comedy award at the American Cinema Editors awards (Top Gun: Maverick won the drama award) so is likely the favourite to win here too. 

Best Sound
Nominees
* Top Gun: Maverick
* All Quiet on the Western Front
* Avatar: The Way of Water
* Elvis
* The Batman

Prediction
Top Gun: Maverick
​
I always struggle to pick the winner for Sound (although it's a lot less confusing now that they've combined the old Sound Mixing and Sound Editing categories). All Quiet won the BAFTA (because of course it did) and the Association of Motion Picture Sound award, and Top Gun: Maverick won the Cinema Audio Society award. The CAS seems to be the bigger industry one, so I suspect that is the better indicator of what the Academy will vote for. I also think Top Gun has had a lot of nominations and deserves to win something - big blockbusters usually have to accept Visual Effects as their consolation prize at the Oscars but Top Gun has some big blue competition there this year, so maybe the Academy will give it this one instead. And it does make very effective use of sound - it would be hard to hear all the big inspirational speeches with all those planes flying around otherwise. 

​Best Visual Effects
Nominees
* Top Gun: Maverick
* Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
* All Quiet on the Western Front
* Avatar: The Way of Water
* The Batman

Prediction
Avatar: The Way of Water

Avatar has been nominated for Best Picture this year - probably not because it has an original story like Everything Everywhere or Banshees, and almost certainly not because it has a clever, insightful script like Women Talking or the Fabelmans. It's there because the special effects are so ridiculously good that it raises the bar for cinema. The first Avatar made people see the artistic potential of 3D and led to a renaissance of 3D films which has since subsided, largely because nobody was doing it as well as Avatar did and audiences grew tired of it, eventually seeing it as a gimmick. The sequel dropped into that landscape unashamedly bringing back the extra dimension and audiences have turned out to watch it in such high numbers that it is already one of the biggest selling movies of all time. Within the first few frames you can immediately tell that the 3D and the visual effects generally are better than anything that's been released since the first Avatar film. Combining that with James Cameron's favourite (and very VFX friendly) medium of water just makes it even more stunning to look at. There is no way this award could go to anything other than Avatar. 

​Best Production Design
Nominees
* Babylon
* The Fabelmans
* All Quiet on the Western Front
* Avatar: The Way of Water
* Elvis

Prediction
Babylon

There are a few that could win this. I don't think it will be Avatar - characters and settings are animated so the production design is effectively part of the visual effects, and I think it will win separately for that. The others are all period pieces which often do well here as the need for the production design to evoke the period of the setting is a very easy thing to assess. I don't remember it standing out in the Fabelmans as much as the other nominees so I would personally discount that, but any of the other three could win it. I'm going for Babylon on the basis that it won the BAFTA and the Art Directors Guild award for a period feature film (beating Elvis, Fabelmans and All Quiet - Avatar was nominated for the fantasy film award but lost out to Everything Everywhere). The production designers in Babylon had a lot of work to do - there is a ton of detail in the background of the huge party scenes and film sets in the first half before moving into the more traditionally evocative period settings of the second half. The fact that there are so many film sets means the production designers had to dress fictional film sets within the main film as well as the set around them. The world of the film is generally meant to come across as either sweaty and sleazy or covered in a shiny Hollywood veneer, and the production design effectively switches between the two without it feeling disjointed. 

Best Costume Design
Nominees
* Babylon
Mrs Harris Goes to Paris
* Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
* Everything Everywhere All At Once
* Elvis

Prediction
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

This is a slightly left-field choice, as Elvis won the BAFTA and the Costume Designers Guild award for a period film (beating Babylon and Mrs Harris), and Everything Everywhere beat Black Panther to win the CDG award for a fantasy film. Period films often do well here so it could well go to Elvis, but there is a real vibrancy to the costumes in Black Panther that I think deserve more recognition here. The clothes do a lot of the storytelling for the film, whether it's helping to establish the (fictional) national identities of both Wakanda and Talokan, or displaying the Wakandans' bereavement traditions in T'Challa's funeral scene. They also help to evoke (and contrast) more well-known contemporary settings such as the visits to America. I suspect the Chadwick Boseman send-off will have resonated more with Academy voters than it did with the Designers Guild or the British Academy. 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees
* Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
* All Quiet on the Western Front
* Elvis
* The Whale
* The Batman

Prediction
The Whale

This is another one that could very easily go to Elvis, which won the BAFTA and two awards at the Makeup and Hairstylist Guild awards (for period and/or character makeup and period and/or character hairstyling), although the Whale won at the latter for special makeup effects. The Academy often rewards films that completely transform someone through prosthetics as well as more traditional makeup (see for example Darkest Hour and Vice), and the prosthetics on Brendan Fraser in The Whale do that absolutely. Unlike Darkest Hour and Vice (and Elvis) it's not transforming him into a recognisable historical figure, but nevertheless it's a real achievement. And the fact that Fraser can clearly act through all of that only adds to the achievement. But yes, it could also be Elvis...

​Live Action Short Film
Nominees
An Irish Goodbye
The Red Suitcase
Le Pupille
Ivalu
Night Ride

Prediction
Le Pupille

I haven't seen any of the live action shorts this year, although apparently Le Pupille is on Disney+. I have had a little look into them though and most commentators seem to be saying it's between this, the Red Suitcase (which seems to be everyone's favourite but not necessarily the most awards-worthy) and An Irish Goodbye (which won the BAFTA for British short but is apparently a little bit cloying and ends on a fart joke). Le Pupille is produced by Alfonso Cuaron and the director Alice Rohrwacher is apparently a bit of a legend on the festivals circuit, so she likely already has a lot of fans among the Academy voters who will be keen to boost her credentials. 

Best Animated Short Film
Nominees
* My Year of Dicks
Ice Merchants
* An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It
* The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
* The Flying Sailor

Prediction
An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It

A few of these shorts are on YouTube or iPlayer in whole or in part. My Year of Dicks (not as rude as it sounds - there are more penises in the Flying Sailor) is broken into parts and YouTube only seems to have parts 1 and 3, but those are great. The animation is inventive and stylish and the plot feels lifted from a teenage girl's diary, as the main character talks about her crushes and how they each let her down. It's hard to give it my vote having not been able to see all of it but I did enjoy what I have seen. The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse (which won the equivalent BAFTA) is incredibly beautifully animated - the landscapes and skyscapes are straight out of a Christmas card - but the writing is so saccharine I'm not sure it will have the same appeal among Hollywood executives as it did in Britain. The Flying Sailor is fun and poignant but very light on plot and not the most original concept. By contrast, An Ostrich Told Me... is very inventive and imaginative, telling the story of a stop-motion character having an existential crisis as he starts to notice the artificiality of his world. The concept owes a lot to the mid-credits scene of the film Boxtrolls, but it's creatively executed and very funny. I think this is a tough one to call but I enjoyed Ostrich the most. 

Best Documentary (Short Subject)
Nominees
The Elephant Whisperers
Haulout
The Martha Mitchell Effect
Stranger at the Gate
How Do You Measure a Year

Prediction
The Elephant Whisperers

Again, some of these are available on streaming services but I haven't managed to make the time to watch them, so I'm going on a tiny bit of research. The Elephant Whisperers has baby elephants, and who wouldn't want to vote for baby elephants? So that's getting my vote, although apparently Stranger at the Gate was produced by Malala Yousafzai which will probably help get it some votes too.

It's awards season again, slightly later than usual thanks to the pandemic. It's been a bit of a weird year all round, including for the movie world - with cinemas closed, most of the nominees have been relying on home streaming services to reach audiences. A lot of the big blockbusters have been postponed, waiting for the big screens that can do them proper justice to reopen, so most of this year's most successful films have been smaller budget productions that could adapt better to the limitations brought about by Covid-19. 

I made a decision quite early on in the lockdown that I didn't want to pay to watch films at home. I will very happily pay to watch something at the cinema or to buy a blu-ray that I can re-watch when I want, but I am a bit concerned about what will happen to the cinema industry if home streaming becomes too successful. I don't want the studios to think that just because people are willing to buy pay-per-view films at home during a lockdown that they won't need to release them in cinemas too when they reopen, so I'm voting with my wallet against that idea.

Unfortunately, that means that this year I've only been able to see half of the best picture nominees. Minari, Judas and the Black Messiah and The Father are all pay-per-view, and Nomadland isn't out in this country until the end of the month. So this might be a slightly briefer blog than previous years. I have however spent the last couple of weeks working my way through some of the big contenders that are available to watch free on Netflix, Amazon Prime and Disney+, as well as looking into who's won what in the other big awards ceremonies, so hopefully I'll be able to give a bit of insight and make some predictions. As usual, I'll mark the films I've seen with an asterisk. So without further ado...

Best Picture
Nominees
*Sound of Metal
*Mank
Minari
*Promising Young Woman
The Father 
Judas and the Black Messiah
*The Trial of the Chicago Seven
Nomadland

Prediction: Nomadland

All the signs seem to be showing that Nomadland will win Best Picture. It's won the equivalent Golden Globe and BAFTA, as well as a host of smaller awards. It's a real shame that I can't say too much more about it than that, but I think it's a sign of Disney's confidence in the film that they haven't released it yet here - it's as if they're so sure that it will win Best Picture that they're using the Oscars to promote it. 

Of the films I have seen, I think the one that stands the best chance of beating Nomadland is Mank. It ticks all the usual Academy boxes - an artistically shot portrayal of a real life figure in the golden age of Hollywood working on one of the greatest films of all time. I expect though that, after the criticisms about diversity at the Oscars in previous years and the headway the Academy has made this year with improving that in its nominations, the distinct lack of diversity in Mank will hurt its chances. 

Promising Young Woman, Chicago Seven and Sound of Metal were all great too and I'd be very happy for any of them to take the award. It sounds like Minari stands a decent chance as well. But Nomadland is the clear favourite.

Best Director
Nominees
Thomas Vinterberg - Another Round
*David Fincher - Mank
Chloé Zhao - Nomadland
*Emerald Fennell - Promising Young Woman
Lee Isaac Chung - Minari

Prediction: Chloé Zhao

Much like the Best Picture category, it's difficult for me to say much about this without having seen the big favourite (or half the other nominees). Again it could very easily and justifiably go to David Fincher or Emerald Fennell, but Chloé Zhao has won all the big awards in this category (including the Globe, BAFTA, Critic's Choice and DGA awards) so has to be the clear favourite. 

​Best Actor
Nominees
Anthony Hopkins - The Father
*Riz Ahmed - Sound of Metal
Steven Yeun - Minari
*Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
*Gary Oldman - Mank

Prediction: Chadwick Boseman

Happy as I am to see Glen from Walking Dead in this category, and legendary as Anthony Hopkins and Gary Oldman are, I think this will go to the late Chadwick Boseman. His performance in Ma Rainey is fantastic, switching casually from smiling and likeable to haunted and furious. It's sad to say that the fact he has passed away this year will probably help his chances too - Boseman was a hugely talented actor and this is the last chance the Academy will have to recognise that (which no doubt would have happened sooner or later if he had lived to make more films). 

Best Actress
Nominees
Andra Day - The United States Vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby - Pieces of a Woman
*Carey Mulligan - Promising Young Woman
*Viola Davis - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Frances McDormand - Nomadland

Prediction: Viola Davis

This is a much harder one to predict. Frances McDormand won the Bafta, Andra Day won the Golden Globe, Viola Davis won the SAG award and Carey Mulligan won the Critic's Choice award, so that doesn't particularly help narrow it down. I would love to see Carey Mulligan get it - she's fantastic in Promising Young Woman and was also great in The Dig, playing a character so different that she's almost unrecognisable from one to the other. But my gut says this will go to Viola Davis, whose Ma Rainey is such a force of nature that she's earned this best (lead) actress nomination despite having less screen time than half the supporting actor/actress nominees. 

Best Supporting Actor
Nominees
*Paul Raci - Sound of Metal
*Sacha Baron Cohen - The Trial of the Chicago Seven
LaKeith Stanfield - Judas and the Black Messiah
*Leslie Odom Jr. - One Night In Miami
Daniel Kaluuya - Judas and the Black Messiah

Prediction: Daniel Kaluuya

This is another one that I'm mostly basing on other awards - Kaluuya (who is always great and I have no doubt deserves the praise he's getting for Judas...) has won the BAFTA, Golden Globe, Critic's Choice and Screen Actors Guild awards so is very much the favourite to win tonight. I'm pleased to see Sacha Baron Cohen being nominated - he can be a very good actor when given a serious role. But this is going to Kaluuya.

​Best Supporting Actress
Nominees
*Amanda Seyfried - Mank
Olivia Coleman - The Father
Youn Yuh-jung - Minari
*Maria Bakalova - Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close - Hillbilly Elegy

Prediction: Youn Yuh-jung

I haven't seen Minari, but Youn Yuh-jung has won the BAFTA, the Golden Globe and the SAG award. The only major one she hasn't won is the Critic's Choice Award, which went to Maria Bakalova. I would love to see Bakalova win the Oscar after her incredibly brave performance, which did a lot of the comedic and emotional heavy lifting in Borat. All the signs indicate though that this will be going to Yuh-jung.

​Best Animated Feature
Nominees
*Wolfwalkers
*Onward
*Soul
A Shaun The Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Over The Moon

Prediction: Soul (but hopefully Wolfwalkers)

So this is almost definitely going to Soul, which I am not arguing or begrudging - it's a big and beautiful Pixar film that's won every other award in this category (including the Annies, which deal specifically with animation). For me personally, whilst I enjoyed Soul, I don't think it was Pixar's best - it tried to mirror aspects of Inside Out and Coco (which are among Pixar's best) but never seemed to quite find the right tone. The New York scenes looked and sounded stunning, and the scenes in the Before Place were wonderfully creative, but the talking cat section that made up most of the second act felt a bit too goofy and cartoonish to fit with the rest of the film. If it were up to me I would give the award to Wolfwalkers. Its hand drawn animation looks quite rudimentary next to the gloss of Pixar but it's deceptively well-done and utterly spellbinding. Cartoon Saloon, the Irish studio that made it, has a real talent for creating character through shape and movement. Every film they have made has been nominated for an Oscar and they've never won it, usually losing out to one of the big players like Pixar and Disney, but given that Soul (and Onward) weren't quite up to Pixar's top standard it would be lovely to see Cartoon Saloon finally win something this year. But it's not up to me and it's going to go to Soul.

​Best Original Screenplay
Nominees
*Sound of Metal
Minari
*Promising Young Woman
Judas and the Black Messiah
*The Trial of the Chicago Seven

Prediction: Promising Young Woman

This is a tough one as it's a very strong category and I wouldn't be surprised if it goes to Trial of the Chicago Seven. I think for me though Promising Young Woman has the edge - it's a little more original (as this category should be) and the writing makes room for both witty comedy and dark moments without it ever feeling tonally jarring. Sound of Metal is worth a mention too because so much of the dialogue is in ASL or otherwise communicated through gestures or lip-reading, which must have been very difficult to work into an effective script. 

Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees
*One Night In Miami
The Father
*The White Tiger
Nomadland
*Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Prediction: The Father

Again this is a difficult one. The Father won the BAFTA, Nomadland won the Critics Choice and Borat won the Writers Guild award. I think though that The Father has had so many nominations, it would be surprising if it doesn't win something, and I expect this is the award it is most likely to bring home. I get the impression from the trailer that it is quite a dialogue-heavy film, and the fact that both its leads were nominated for Best Actor/Actress suggests that the quality of that dialogue is very high. I think One Night In Miami would thoroughly deserve it too - the debates between Sam Cook and Malcolm X in that are really quite enthralling. I am watching The White Tiger in the background while I write this blog and I'm thoroughly enjoying it, but I think the fact it hasn't been nominated for anything else is probably a bad sign.

Best Original Score
Nominees
Da 5 Bloods - Terence Blanchard
*Mank - Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
Minari - Emile Mosseri
*Soul - Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jon Batiste
*News of the World - James Newton Howard

Prediction: Soul

It's a good year for Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, formerly of Nine Inch Nails, who are nominated twice in this category this year and by all indications will win it for Soul. The music breathed life into a film about learning to appreciate your life. It gave depth and character to the streets and jazz clubs of New York as well as the more surreal after-/before-life worlds. As a result, Soul has already won the Golden Globe, the BAFTA and the Critics Choice awards. I really loved the soundtrack for News of the World too - I'm a fan of James Newton Howard anyway and this was one of the best things he's done, lending a sweeping majesty to the Western landscape. But Soul is very much the favourite to win and I'll be surprised if it doesn't. 

​​Best Original Song
Nominees
*Hear My Voice - The Trial of the Chicago Seven
Husavik (My Hometown) - Eurovision Song Contest
Fight For You - Judas and the Black Messiah
*Speak Now - One Night In Miami
Io Sí (Seen) - The Life Ahead

Prediction: Speak Now

This is quite a tough one to call as well, as there isn't anything that really stands out from the others. Io Sí won the Golden Globe and is a lovely song but a bit by-the-numbers ballady. Husavik is great in a very cheesy Eurovision sort of way but the film is not the usual Oscars material and I'd be surprised if the Academy votes for it. The other three are big anthemic fight songs, which feels like the most relevant way to go this year after the BLM movement. Of those three, Leslie Odom Jr's Speak Now is probably my favourite.

​International Feature Film
Nominees
The Man Who Sold His Skin
Collective
Quo Vadis, Aida?
Better Days
Another Round

Prediction: Another Round

I haven't seen and know basically nothing about any of these films. The equivalent Golden Globe went to Minari, which I think qualified for that as the award was for Best Picture in a Foreign Language, but doesn't qualify for the Oscar as it was made in the USA. The only film on this list that was even nominated for a Globe though was Another Round, which also won the equivalent BAFTA and has an Oscar nomination for Best Director, so I suspect that will be the favourite to win. 

Best Documentary Feature
Nominees
The Mole Agent
Collective
*My Octopus Teacher 
Crip Camp
Time

Prediction: My Octopus Teacher

I'm not just saying this because it's the only one I've seen (and I suspect the only one a lot of people have seen, as it's been very popular on Netflix). My Octopus Teacher is everything a good documentary should be - fascinating, captivating, and full of character and charm. It's beautifully shot and really quite heartbreaking in places, which is a big achievement for a film about something as weird and alien-looking as an octopus. Plus it won the BAFTA and a whole range of other smaller awards. 

​Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees
Pinocchio
*Mank
*Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Emma 
Hillbilly Elegy

Prediction: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

The makeup that transformed Viola Davis into Ma Rainey is quite something. It should look cheap and trashy but somehow she turns it into a symbol of authority. It makes her look quite intimidating and it's certainly the most memorable makeup of all the nominees. It's also won the BAFTA and Critics Choice awards. 

Best Costume Design
Nominees
Pinocchio
*Mank
*Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Emma
*Mulan

Prediction: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Again, Ma Rainey has to be the favourite based on previous wins and the incredible, over-the-top outfits that Viola Davis showcased. The other characters are all very well-dressed too - Ma Rainey's band are all decked out in sharp suits that evoke the period setting and look like they've been chosen by Ma to bolster her stage presence without drawing any attention away from her. The Costume Design category always loves a period setting and the other nominees all have that going for them too. Mulan's bright colours look like they were lifted straight from a Disney cartoon. But I think Ma Rainey will take this one home.

Best Sound
Nominees
*News of the World
*Soul
*Sound of Metal
*Mank
Greyhound

Prediction: Sound of Metal

Sound of Metal is all about sound. It's a constant presence even when it's not - you're so aware of it that the moments of silence are all the more noticeable. Not only is it used to literally show us how Riz Ahmed's character Ruben's hearing is deteriorating, but it also carries a lot of the emotional weight. Without wanting to spoil too much, it is heartbreaking when we realise along with Ruben that he was pinning all his hopes on something that doesn't work the way he expected, and beautifully poignant at the end of the film. Sound of Metal has, rightly, won this category in the other major awards and I'd be amazed if anything else takes the Oscar. Soul perhaps has a chance, but I think it is more likely that the Academy will give that the Best Score and Sound of Metal will get Best Sound. Best Film Editing
Nominees
*Sound of Metal
*Promising Young Woman
The Father
*The Trial of the Chicago Seven
Nomadland

Prediction: Sound of Metal

Although Sound of Metal won the BAFTA and the Critics Choice, I'm not 100% sure about this one - it could very easily go to The Trial of the Chicago Seven too, which made good use of flashbacks to juxtapose the courtroom drama with the protests and riots that led to it and to highlight the unfairness of the trial. What made Sound of Metal really great though was the way it conveyed the experience of its main character's hearing loss, which was mostly through the use of sound (more on that later) but also the editing. I expect this will go the same way as the other awards.

​Best Cinematography
Nominees
*Mank
Judas and the Black Messiah
*The Trial of the Chicago Seven
Nomadland
*News of the World

Prediction: Mank

There were some beautiful landscape shots in News of the World, and I expect Nomadland (which won the BAFTA) is the same. But I think Mank has a good chance of winning this one. The black and white cinematography looks great and evokes the 1930s atmosphere. Plus Mank has the most nominations of any film this year, and is unlikely to win any of the big ones, so the Academy might want to reward it in some of the technical categories. It could go to Nomadland, but I'm going to go for Mank.​

Best Production Design
Nominees
*Tenet
*Mank
*Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
The Father
*News of the World

Prediction: Mank

This is the other category where I think Mank will pick something up from its 10 nominations. The production design was where the Hollywood glitz and glamour that will appeal to the Academy was given its biggest opportunity to shine through. I can't really see any of the other nominations beating it - Ma Rainey and News of the World were great looking films but Mank is more likely to strike a chord with the voters. 

​Best Visual Effects
Nominees
*Tenet
The Midnight Sky
The One and Only Ivan
*Love and Monsters
*Mulan

Prediction: Tenet

Best Visual Effects normally goes to a big blockbuster, and Tenet was the only big blockbuster that managed to sneak in a proper cinema release this year. It wasn't as successful as people hoped, either critically or commercially, but it did have spectacular visual effects. The central conceit, of a plot that moved through time in both directions, made for some very impressive set pieces. It was hard to tell exactly what was going on but it looked fantastic, and was far more original than the effects in the other nominees. I watched Love and Monsters this afternoon which was far better than I expected, with some great monsters, but it felt a lot less polished than Tenet. Plus Tenet has been sweeping the category in the other awards.

The shorts...

I haven't had time to watch the shorts this year, so I can only guess at them randomly - the only one I have seen is the Disney animated short nominee Burrow, which I wasn't blown away by and don't expect to win. The other awards aren't much help - the Globes and Critics Choice awards don't have a prize in the short categories, and the BAFTAS only have one for the British shorts which won't necessarily translate to the Oscars. The Present won the BAFTA for British live action short and is nominated for an Oscar, so I might as well go for that for Live Action Short. And then based on nothing at all but the names, I will guess at Genius Loci for Animated Short and A Love Song For Latasha for Documentary Short.

It’s that time of year again, when I suddenly remember that I have that film blog that I meant to update on a regular basis but actually only ever get round to when predicting the Oscars (this year I’ll definitely try and write at least one non-Oscars related post). It’s been quite a challenging one to write, as every award is either practically guaranteed to go to someone in particular or could easily go to any of the nominees. But I’ll give it a go anyway, because someone has to and I can only assume that nobody else on the internet is writing about the Oscars...
 
Best Film
 
* Ford vs Ferrari (aka Le Mans ’66)
* The Irishman
* Jojo Rabbit
* Joker
* Little Women
* Marriage Story
* 1917
* Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
* Parasite
 
Prediction: Parasite
 
So this is the first of those difficult ones. Judging by the other major awards, it’s probably going to 1917 which (not undeservedly) won the BAFTA and the Golden Globe for drama. However, it’s by no means a dead cert. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood won the Golden Globe for best musical or comedy, and Parasite won the Screen Actors Guild’s equivalent to best film. There are a lot of good reasons for it to go to the Irishman or Joker too, and Little Women and Jojo Rabbit were two of my favourite films of the last few months.
 
I always slightly resent the idea of going for the clear favourite though, so I’m going to go with Parasite for best film. Parasite is a stunning and intelligent film that manages to be consistently both amusing and horrible. It has a lot to say about the class divide without ever feeling overly preachy, in a similarly subtle and clever way to how last year’s Get Out dealt with racism (at least before Get Out suddenly stops being subtle about it) – the wealthy characters aren’t deliberately or even knowingly cruel to the poorer ones, but you can completely understand how everything they say and do grates on those with less privilege. It’s also visually amazing – the contrast between the two families’ homes tells the story as much as the acting (which is all brilliant) and the script (which is beautifully written). It might not be as blockbusting as 1917 but it’s a lot more original and relevant. Rewarding an international film could also help allay the #OscarsSoWhite criticisms that are coming up again this year.
 
As I said, I would love to see it go to Jojo Rabbit, which is a perfect example of why a bit of sadness in a comedy makes the bright moments all the brighter, or to Joker, which somehow managed to out-Scorsese Martin Scorsese in the year Scorsese publicly dismissed the cinematic value of comic book movies, or to Little Women, which is about as uplifting a film as you’re likely to see this year, or to Once Upon a Time... so that Quentin Tarantino can finally get a best film Oscar. But it’s probably going to 1917 or Parasite, and of the two I would love to see it go to Parasite. But it’s probably going to 1917...

​Best Actor
 
Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
* Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
* Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
* Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
* Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)
 
Prediction: Joaquin Phoenix
 
This seems to be Joaquin Phoenix’s to lose. His performance in Joker has quite rightly won him every other award going. It should be a tricky role to play – the Joker is a horrifically violent and dangerous villain, so making him the protagonist of a film is a hard sell. But Phoenix sells it – you can really see the pain behind his eyes when he breaks down into uncontrolled laughter, and hear the despair in his voice when he realises that he won’t be able to get the psychiatric help he needs to cope with a world that seems committed to stamping him out. At the same time though, underneath it all, he’s incredibly sinister. Phoenix gives him a grotesque physicality and a nervous, unpredictable energy which makes it impossible to fully root for him, so that when he eventually snaps it’s shocking without ever being entirely surprising. He’s already won the Golden Globe, the BAFTA and the Screen Actors Guild Award and unless his angry acceptance speech to the British Academy put them off, there’s no doubt the Oscars voters won’t reward him too.

Best Actress
 
Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)
* Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
* Saoirse Ronan (Little Women)
* Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
Renee Zellweger (Judy)
 
Prediction: Renee Zellweger
 
Something that’s becoming a regular feature in these blogs is a segment I’ll call ‘look at Saoirse Ronan – what have you done with your life?’ Saoirse Ronan is now 25 and this is her fourth Oscar nomination, three of which have been for leading actress. She’s fantastic in everything I’ve seen her in and is brilliant in Little Women, and it must only be a matter of time before she finally wins a statue. Unfortunately for her (and all the other nominees), this is by all accounts going to Renee Zellweger this year for her portrayal of Judy Garland. Like Phoenix, Zellweger has already won the Golden Globe, the BAFTA, the Screen Actors Guild Award, and so many other smaller ones that I can’t be bothered to count them. There’s not much more I can say about her performance as I didn’t even notice Judy come out in the cinema, but it must have been very good...

​Best Supporting Actor
 
* Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
* Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)
* Al Pacino (The Irishman)
* Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
* Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
 
Prediction: Brad Pitt
 
This seems to be the only acting award that isn’t a foregone conclusion. Brad Pitt is the probably the favourite, having won the Golden Globe, the BAFTA and the Screen Actors Guild Award, but Joe Pesci has won a lot of the smaller Critics’ awards and could be in with a good shot. A friend of mine recently made the very fair point that he didn’t think playing a Hollywood ladies’ man is enough of a stretch for Pitt to earn him the award, but it would be hypocritical of me to judge him on that given that my choice probably would have been Tom Hanks – one of the nicest guys in America playing one of the nicest guys in America. His portrayal of Mr Rogers is beautifully measured and subtle, imbuing an almost comically friendly man with an undercurrent of emotion and intelligence that prevents him from ever straying into cartoonish territory. I’m actually quite surprised that the people of Hollywood, many of whom will have grown up watching Mr Rogers, haven’t given him more love for it. Judging by the other awards though, I think this is going to Brad Pitt, who in all fairness was great in Once Upon a Time..., even if it was a role he could have played in his sleep. 

​Best Supporting Actress
 
* Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell)
* Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
* Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
* Florence Pugh (Little Women)
* Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
 
Prediction: Laura Dern
 
Like Joaquin Phoenix and Renee Zellweger, Laura Dern has won every major award leading up to the Oscars for her portrayal of a tough but sympathetic lawyer in Marriage Story (although she could just have deservedly been nominated for her role in Little Women). It’s another very strong performance and she has a couple of standout scenes, my favourite being a meeting between the divorcing Scarlett Johansson and Adam Driver where Dern completely takes command of the proceedings and dominates the outcome on Johansson’s behalf. She seems to genuinely care for both parties, but there is absolutely no doubt which of them she is fighting for. For me, Scarlett Johansson’s performance in Jojo Rabbit had more of an impact both emotionally and memorably, but I can see why people have supported Dern and, frankly, I love Jurassic Park so much I can’t begrudge Dr Sattler getting some well-deserved recognition. 

​Best Director
* Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
* Todd Phillips (Joker)
* Sam Mendes (1917)
* Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
* Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)
 
Prediction: Bong Joon Ho
 
Judging by the other awards, this is probably actually going to Sam Mendes (he’s won the BAFTA, Golden Globe and Directors Guild of America awards), but there’s always some sort of upset at the Oscars and I think this is the most likely candidate. Parasite is an incredible film, thanks in no small part to Joon Ho’s vision and style. It’s unusual for a foreign language film to rack up as many major award nominations as Parasite has, but when foreign films do well, the Academy often rewards the director – only one of the last eight winners was a native English speaker. 

​Adapted Screenplay
 
* The Irishman
* Jojo Rabbit
* Joker
* Little Women
* The Two Popes
 
Prediction: Little Women
 
There is a very good chance that this will actually go to Jojo Rabbit, and I will not be remotely upset if it does – as far as I’m concerned Taika Waititi is welcome to as many awards as anyone wants to give him. However, I’m rooting for Little Women to take this one. One of the difficulties of basing a film on a classic piece of literature is that it’s inevitably been adapted countless times before, so it’s very challenging to make something original enough to engage people who know the story but also tell the story well enough to interest people who aren’t so familiar with it. I was in the latter category, having never read the book or watched any other adaptations, and I was so drawn into it that I was entirely invested in every character by the end. I understand from reading reviews and speaking to people who have read the book that Greta Gerwig changed the format from the original story, jumping between past and present instead of following the traditional linear timeline. It was a bit of a gamble, as it could have made the film more confusing, but it paid off well, enabling Gerwig to add an extra level of poignancy and emotion to many scenes by building them into a fuller context. In short, Little Women is everything that an adapted screenplay should be, and recognising that would also give the Academy an opportunity to address its diversity issues by rewarding a brilliant female writer-director. 

​Original Screenplay
 
* Knives Out
* Marriage Story
* 1917
* Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
* Parasite
 
Prediction: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
 
This is a difficult one. Knives Out was very entertaining, but seems unlikely to win given its lack of nominations in any other categories. 1917 stands a decent chance, but the dialogue in it isn’t particularly memorable and the story isn’t particularly complex, so for me the other nominees deserve it better. The other major awards have mostly been split between Once Upon a Time... and Parasite, and I expect the Oscars will also go for one of those two (although Marriage Story had some beautifully written dialogue and would probably be my prediction if the other awards had shown it a bit more love). Personally I think Once Upon a Time... has the slight edge over Parasite.

​Quentin Tarantino is widely regarded as one of the best directors in Hollywood and, although he has never won an Oscar as a director, he has won the Original Screenplay award a couple of times before for Pulp Fiction and Django. Almost every entry in his back catalogue is seen as a classic, and he famously takes a very academic approach to his films, frequently paying tribute to the movies that inspired him. When a director like Tarantino makes a film that is essentially a love letter to the Golden Age of Hollywood, you can tell that it’s a real passion project that he poured his heart and soul into. It’s also one of the more Academy friendly Tarantino films – one of the likely reasons he hasn’t won Best Director before is that his fondness for over-the-top violence might put off some of the older voters, and although Once Upon a Time... has some of the goriest scenes he has ever committed to film, they are almost entirely saved for the very end. The rest of the film is comparatively sedate, and takes the time to bathe languorously in its setting without ever making you bored or disinterested. A lot of that is down to the smart, witty dialogue that Tarantino is known for. I think that the Academy will want to give Tarantino something for his latest, and I think it’s more likely to be this award than Film or Director. Or they’ll give it to Boon Jong Ho and that will be very well-deserved as well.

​Best Animated Film
 
* How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Klaus
* Missing Link
* Toy Story 4
 
Prediction: Missing Link
 
This is quite a tough one. I haven’t seen two of the nominees (and hadn’t even heard of them until the nominations were announced), so I’m discounting them as I can’t really comment on them (although at both the BAFTAs and the Annies, the biggest awards aimed exclusively at animated films, Klaus won Best Animated Feature). The first two How To Train Your Dragon films are among my favourite animated films of all time, and thoroughly deserved Oscars in their respective years (the first had the misfortune of going up against Toy Story 3, and the second was robbed by Big Hero 6). The third film though wasn’t quite up to the same standard and I would be very surprised if it wins.
 
That leaves Missing Link and Toy Story 4, which is a very difficult contest. Toy Story is the flagship franchise of the animated behemoth that is Pixar, and whilst it didn’t quite have the emotional impact of Toy Story 3, the fourth instalment was beautiful and poignant and far better than anybody expected it to be. Missing Link was made by Laika, which is one of a few underdog companies that have given the big hitters like Disney and Pixar a real run for their money in recent years. It’s aimed at a much younger age bracket than some of their previous films like Coraline and Kubo & the Two Strings, but it’s still hugely creative and entertaining and a real testament to the amount of work that goes into producing a feature-length stop motion animation. I would have said Toy Story 4 has it in the bag, but Missing Link won the equivalent Golden Globe so it’s a closer race than you might expect. As I always like rooting for the underdog, I’m going for Missing Link.

​International Film
 
Corpus Christi
Honeyland
Les Miserables
Pain and Glory
* Parasite
 
Prediction: Parasite
 
It’s quite rare for a foreign language film to be nominated for Best Picture, and Parasite not only has the nomination but also a very good chance of winning this year. That means it has to win International Film, almost by default. Even without the Best Picture nomination, it’s smartly written and beautifully shot, with a timely and powerful message about the class divide that has clearly resonated with the Academy. Admittedly I haven’t seen any of its competitors, but I would be amazed if Parasite doesn’t win this one.

​Cinematography
 
* The Irishman
* Joker
The Lighthouse
* 1917
* Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
 
Prediction: 1917
 
Cinematography was what defined 1917 and is probably the main reason it’s likely to win best film. It was made to look like one single continuous tracking shot – obviously there were some edits, but for the most part they were disguised and unnoticeable. Even so, each individual shot must have been an incredible undertaking – the camera having to move through crowds of people, into and out of trenches and buildings, onto vehicles and through vast empty fields, all without a single mistake. The amount of planning that would have had to go into that is ridiculous, but it works – you feel like you’re there with the main characters, running through France alongside them, so the threat feels more real too. On top of that, there are some beautiful uses of light throughout the film, one particular standout being the moment when a series of night-time flares illuminates the ruins of a village and casts eerie moving shadows across the screen. The cinematographer was Roger Deakins, who became famous for having been nominated for a great many Oscars without a win until he finally got a statue for Bladerunner 2049 a few years ago. I would be amazed if the Academy doesn’t reward him again for 1917. Clearly he needs to make sure he only ever works on films with a year in the title. 

​Editing
* Ford Vs Ferrari (aka Le Mans ’66)
* The Irishman
* Jojo Rabbit
* Joker
* Parasite
 
Prediction: Le Mans ‘66
 
Le Mans ’66 feels like a bit of an underdog in the Oscars this year, I expect largely because it came out too early and has been slightly forgotten about. It’s a shame because it was a very entertaining film and deserves some recognition for that. A lot of what makes sports or racing films so exciting (even for people like me with no interest in sport or cars) is the editing, as it takes on a lot of the weight of the storytelling. There’s very little dialogue when you’re watching drivers speeding round a track, and you can’t tell much of the drivers’ expressions through their helmets and goggles, so the drama comes from the speed and sequencing of the shots. Le Mans ’66 executed this perfectly, creating real excitement out of what was essentially an Italian and a Brummie driving in circles for a day. 

Production Design
 
* The Irishman
* Jojo Rabbit
* 1917
* Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
* Parasite
 
Prediction: 1917
 
This is another tough one as all of the nominees deserve to win. The Irishman had to evoke several different decades across its sprawling timeline. Jojo Rabbit managed to recreate Nazi Germany but still imbue it with a bright and sunny atmosphere that is normally absent from films set in that period, which worked perfectly for a story told through the eyes of a child. Once Upon a Time... built a romanticised vision of Hollywood at its most glamorous, and Parasite built a post-modern architect’s house from scratch just to contrast it with the basement dwellings of its poorer characters. But I think the most likely winner is 1917. Despite taking place over a relatively short period of time, the characters make their way through a very wide range of settings that all evoked the horror of World War One in different ways. The trenches were imposing, the tunnels claustrophobic, the countryside bleak, the towns ruined, and no-man’s land a sort of primordial hell. On top of that, they all had to be designed in a way that would allow the actors and camera to move through them without ruining the single take conceit. It was hugely impressive and above all it looked incredible, which is what this category is all about. 

​Costume Design
 
* The Irishman
* Jojo Rabbit
* Joker
* Little Women
* Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
 
Prediction: Little Women
 
This could go several ways – all of the nominees are set in the past and feature costumes designed to evoke the era of their setting. Period dramas often do well in this category. However, I think Little Women had the most elaborate requirements for its wardrobe department, given that took in everything from fancy upper-class balls to poverty stricken hovels. The four sisters often wear elaborate dresses, but Jo also wears some much more androgynous outfits in rebellion against the expectations of women at the time, which meant that the costumes were a key part of the visual storytelling and character development instead of just an extension of the period setting. On that basis I’d go for Little Women, but I wouldn’t be surprised if any of the others gets the award.

Makeup and Hairstyling
 
* Bombshell
* Joker
Judy
* Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
* 1917
 
Prediction: Bombshell
 
The vast majority of people I’ve spoken to who have seen Bombshell have commented on how not-like-Charlize-Theron Charlize Theron looks. The prosthetics that transform her into Megyn Kelly are a lot more subtle than, say, John Lithgow’s Roger Ailes fat-suit, but it’s so effective that she’s virtually indistinguishable from the archive footage of the real Megyn Kelly used occasionally in the film. Kazu Hiro, one of the make-up artists nominated for Bombshell, also won last year for his work on The Darkest Hour (and has previously been nominated for, um, Norbit and Click, but we’ll overlook those ones for now...). Maleficent has some very striking makeup for Angelina Jolie but probably not to the point where anyone should have to utter the phrase: “And the Academy Award goes to... Maleficent: Mistress of Evil”. The others have perfectly good make-up work, but for me this should go to Bombshell. 

​Original Score
 
* Hildur Guðnadóttir (Joker)
* Alexandre Desplat (Little Women)
* Randy Newman (Marriage Story)
* Thomas Newman (1917)
* John Williams (Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker)
 
Prediction: Hildur Guðnadóttir
 
As ever, I’d be entirely happy for John Williams to win this, because the Star Wars theme is so iconic it deserves awards any opportunity it gets. I also thought the music in Little Women was particularly beautiful and suited Desplat’s style nicely. I expect though that this award will go to Hildur Guðnadóttir, who is the clear favourite after winning the BAFTA and Golden Globe. The Joker theme is dark, menacing and melancholy, to the point where I almost felt sorry for Guðnadóttir during the BAFTAs for having to collect her award to such a miserable tune, but it is a perfect fit for Joker’s pessimistic tone. And apparently, great to dance down some stairs to if you’re a psychopathic clown...

​Original Song
 
* I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away (Toy Story 4)
* (I’m Gonna) Love Me Again (Rocketman)
I’m Standing With You (Breakthrough)
* Into the Unknown (Frozen 2)
Stand Up (Harriet)
 
Prediction: Stand Up
 
I actually really like Into the Unknown from Frozen – it’s catchy but also has a bit of a haunting quality that makes it a bit more interesting than most other Disney music. The reaction of pretty much everyone else to it though seems to have been ‘yeah, but it’s not Let It Go’, which rather suggests it’s not going to win. I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away is lovely but sounds like every other Randy Newman song, and I’m Gonna Love Me Again is very catchy but sounds like a lot of other Elton John songs. Neither of those are bad things – I like Randy Newman and Elton John – but it does make them stand out a little less. I’ve never even heard of Breakthrough but I’m Standing With You is a bit dull.
 
Stand Up on the other hand is a very powerful song. It’s also sung by Cynthia Erivo, who is the only black person to be nominated in any of the acting categories this year. She almost certainly won’t win Best Actress as discussed above, but fortunately she has an incredible set of pipes on her and the Academy might feel like giving her Best Song works as a bit of a consolation prize. If she does, she’ll become the youngest ever EGOT having won a Grammy, Emmy and Tony award for The Colour Purple.

Sound Editing
 
* Ford Vs Ferrari (aka Le Mans ’66)
* Joker
* 1917
* Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
* Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
 
Prediction: 1917
 
I always struggle with differentiating between the two sound awards, although this article by the New York Times gives a very helpful explanation. Sound editing is about finding the right sounds to convey particular things in the film. The use of sound in 1917 functioned in much the same way as the production design, building the horrors of World War One in every explosion, gunshot, engine and mud squelch. The BAFTAs only have one award for sound and they gave it to 1917, and it wouldn’t surprise me if the Sound Editing Oscar goes to that film too. 

​Sound Mixing
 
Ad Astra
* Ford vs Ferrari (aka Le Mans ’66)
* Joker
* 1917
* Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
 
Prediction: Le Mans ‘66
 
Sound mixing is about the way the sounds are layered in the film. It is very possible that this will go to 1917 again, but I’m actually going to root for Le Mans ’66. The racetrack and car factory settings meant that it had to deal with a lot of incredibly loud noises, and the audience had to know that they were loud noises, but that had to be balanced with the dialogue so that it didn’t impact on the emotion of what was being said. It feels like the challenge that process presented was harder than in 1917, which had relatively sparse dialogue and, from what I remember, not many scenes where there was a lot of dialogue and a lot of noise going on at the same time.  

​Visual Effects
 
* Avengers: Endgame
* The Irishman
* The Lion King
* 1917
* Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
 
Prediction: Avengers: Endgame
 
It wouldn’t surprise me if this ends up going to 1917 as well, but personally I think Avengers deserves it most. Endgame is the culmination of a decade of blockbusters in which incredible special effects have been a key feature and selling point. Marvel has in that time gotten rather good at rendering the odd pixel. Anything the other nominees can do, Endgame can do better. The Lion King has believable digital characters, but none of them have the realism or emotion of Thanos. 1917’s showreel in the BAFTAs showed off its plane crash, but Marvel’s been knocking planes out of the sky since Iron Man and Thanos’ ship coming down in Endgame is every bit as visually impressive. If you think Best Visual Effects should go to Star Wars’ rendering of a galaxy far far away, consider the opening scenes of Avengers in which the Guardians’ ship drifts helplessly through the vast void of space. You like the de-aging in the Irishman? Look at Michael Douglas’ brief cameo during Endgame’s time heist to the past (made using the technology Marvel perfected in Captain Marvel earlier in the year). The climactic battle in Endgame was one of the most cathartic moments in cinema in 2019, and part of the reason for that was that the effects built on the emotions and storytelling without drowning them out. The sight of Captain America, shield broken, dragging himself to his feet to single-handedly face down a legion of monsters pouring out of the sky is an incredibly powerful character moment that simply would not have worked without world class visual effects. It’s very easy to dismiss big blockbusters as popcorn cinema that isn’t high-brow enough to win any prestigious awards, but with a bigger budget comes bigger scope to push the boundaries of technology, and that deserves to be recognised here. 

​Best Documentary Film
American Factory
The Cave
The Edge of Democracy
For Sama
Honeyland
 
Prediction: Honeyland
 
I haven’t seen any of these so the only thing I have to go on is a brief bit of internet research and some previous awards. It seems like the biggest contenders are American Factory, For Sama and Honeyland. For Sama, about a mother trying to protect her daughter in Syria, beat American Factory to the BAFTA, although For Sama was produced by Channel 4 and the BAFTAs tend to have a slight bias towards anything British-made. American Factory, about American and Chinese factory workers in Ohio trying to reconcile their different approaches to working, is apparently the frontrunner having won several big awards when it premiered at Sundance (which is often a good indicator for this category). Honeyland also premiered at Sundance and won several big awards. It tells the story of a beekeeper looking after her mother in North Macedonia, and is the first film to ever receive a nomination for both Best Documentary Feature and Best International Film. It won’t beat Parasite for International Film, but the fact it was nominated in both categories means it must have registered well with the Academy voters. Everything I’ve read has said it’s not as politically hard-hitting as the other entries, but it’s sweet and emotional and has a timely environmental message (which the largely liberal media industry will likely appreciate). On that basis I’m plugging for Honeyland to win.

​Best Documentary Short
In the Absence
Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)
Life Overtakes Me
St. Louis Superman
Walk Run Cha-Cha
 
Prediction: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)
 
I know nothing about any of these and haven’t found the time to research it properly, so I’m mostly basing this on which one has my favourite title. 

Best Animated Short
Daughter
* Hair Love
* Kitbull
Memorable
Sister
 
Prediction: Kitbull
 
From what I’ve read, it sounds very likely that Memorable is going to win this. However, as I’ve not seen it, I’m rooting for Kitbull, on account of it being one of the loveliest shorts I’ve ever seen. Last year, Pixar ran a project called Sparkshorts where it volunteered to finance the personal projects that its animators wanted to make, and Kitbull was one of the results. In true Pixar fashion, it’s visual storytelling at its finest and manages to imbue its two main characters (a kitten and a pitbull) with real personality. It’s on Youtube in full and embedded below – I defy you to watch it without getting a lump in your throat by the end...

​Best Live Action Short
Brotherhood
Nefta Football Club
The Neighbor’s Window
Saria
A Sister
 
Prediction: Saria
 
Some of these are available on Youtube in full but I haven’t had time to watch more than the trailers. Brotherhood sounds like the frontrunner, telling the story of conflict in a Muslim family in Tunisia when their oldest son returns from Syria with a new wife. It looks thoroughly depressing but covers the kind of subject matter that the Academy tends to go for. Nefta Football Club looks like the most fun option, about a couple of boys finding a literal drug mule in Algeria. But the one that felt most cinematic from the trailer was Saria, which is based on the true story of a group of girls escaping from an abusive orphanage in Guatemala. 

​And that’s it! I’ve booked tomorrow off work to stay up and watch the ceremony tonight, so we’ll see then whether 1917 walks away with everything or whether Hollywood manages to throw in a few surprises...

Having entirely failed to put any actual movie reviews on here again for another year, it's time for me to do some Oscars predictions! As usual, I'll mark the ones I've seen with a *.

Best Picture
Nominees:
*Black Panther
*BlackkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
*The Favourite
*Green Book
*Roma
*A Star is Born
*Vice

Prediction: Roma

There are lots of very strong contenders in here. As a long-time superhero movie fan it's great to see Black Panther on here, which was a brilliant film. I would be very surprised though if it wins Best Picture. There is a cynical part of me that suspects it was included to reduce the #oscarssowhite criticisms of the last few years, and to pander (panther?) more to the general moviegoing public who are starting to see the Oscars as less relevant than they used to be. Had the Academy gone ahead with the new Popular Film category then Black Panther probably would have been its first winner, but I don't think it's strong enough to be named the best film of the year. At the risk of sounding a bit nerdy, I'm not sure it was even the best Marvel film of the year - Avengers: Infinity War took bigger risks plot-wise, and accomplished the near-impossible task of giving each of its 26286486284 characters a decent moment in the spotlight (including Black Panther). 

The Favourite is my favourite. I thought it was a really unusual mixture of period drama, surreal comedy and political thriller. The acting by the three main leads is incredible and to me, it really stands out from the rest of the list. However, it does also have a lot of bad language and the combination of cursing and general weirdness might put off the Academy voters, who tend to prefer something a little safer. Until last night, I thought it would probably be Green Book, which I completely loved - it's sweet, funny, and has a strong (if a little obvious) message, as well as some terrific acting and dialogue. Rewarding its comments on racism and homophobia would give the Academy some Inclusiveness Points, but it is still uncontroversial enough to feel like a safer choice than the Favourite. Or at least, it was when it first came out. There have been several troubling stories since then that have slightly undermined the film's morale, which might be enough to put the Academy off giving it the top prize. 

Last night, I finally got around to watching Roma and I can completely see why it's been nominated for so many awards this year (10, tying with the Favourite for most nominations). It's a beautifully shot, emotionally told story that clearly came from a genuinely personal place. It also ticks all the boxes that the Academy usually likes (semi-biographical drama, disadvantaged characters, artistic style) as well as all the boxes that the Academy will want to be ticking to improve its reputation at the moment (non-white cast and director, and the Netflix platform will help show that the Academy is moving with the times). It also won Best Film at the BAFTAs, so it has good awards credentials already. 

I would be very happy for the Favourite or Green Book to win, but I think Roma is the more likely contender. 

Best Actor
Nominees: 
* Christian Bale, Vice
* Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
* Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Prediction: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

This is quite a tough one. I never got round to seeing Bohemian Rhapsody, but from what I've heard Rami Malek's performance as Freddy Mercury is far and away the best thing in it. The other nominees here are great (of the three that I've seen, I'd probably lean towards Christian Bale) but Malek has won the Golden Globe and the BAFTA so has to be the favourite. 

Best Actress
Nominees:
* Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
* Olivia Colman, The Favourite
* Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
* Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Prediction: Glenn Close, The Wife

I really, really want this one to go to Olivia Colman. She's been one of my favourite actresses on British TV for a while now and I really hope that this nomination gives her a platform for a bigger international career. She is completely compelling as Queen Anne, flicking unpredictably between funny, vulnerable, furious and contemplative. At one point in the film there is a time jump, and without anyone needing to mention it you can immediately tell that Anne has suffered a stroke in the interim, purely through Colman's performance. However, Glenn Close is the favourite in this category and all indications are that she will win it - she's beaten Colman everywhere but the BAFTAs, and I think BAFTA might have been a bit more biased towards the British actress. I haven't seen The Wife and didn't even notice it come out in the cinema so can't really comment on her performance, but she is a great actress and the fact that she hasn't won an Oscar yet is genuinely quite surprising, so I wouldn't begrudge her for it. I'm putting her as my prediction, but if Olivia Colman wins then I will be much happier for it. Plus, if her acceptance speech is half as sweet as her BAFTA one was then the world will fall in love with her even more...

Supporting Actor
Nominees: 
* Mahershala Ali, Green Book
* Adam Driver, BlackkKlansman
* Sam Elliott, A Star is Born
​* Richard E Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me
* Sam Rockwell, Vice

Prediction: Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Mahershala Ali (quite deservedly) won the Supporting Actor Oscar a couple of years ago for Moonlight, despite the fact that he was only in it for a few scenes. He is one of those actors who always makes a big impact, just as good at playing kind, sympathetic characters as he is at playing menacing villains. I always enjoy watching him but Green Book was far and away the best performance I've seen him give. His Dr Don Shirley is quiet and unassuming but at the same time manages to be the centre of whatever scene he inhabits. His speech about the difficulties he has fitting in with white and black communities is the most powerful moment of the film. There are a few other good nominees here - Richard E Grant especially deserves more recognition than he gets - but this is Mahershala Ali's to lose. 

Supporting Actress
Nominees:
* Amy Adams, Vice
* Marina de Tavira, Roma
* Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
* Emma Stone, The Favourite
* Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Prediction: Rachel Weisz

Rachel Weisz is another actress who has been a favourite of mine for a long time, and I am really glad to see her getting some deserved praise for The Favourite. Her character is very compelling - it's hard to tell whether she is in her position of power out of self-interest, political gain, or a genuine affection for and desire to look after her old friend the Queen. Weisz plays every angle, switching between aggression and tenderness, and control and desperation. Emma Stone is brilliant in The Favourite too, and the other nominees are also fantastic (If Beale Street Could Talk deserved a lot more nominations than it got), but for me this has to go to Rachel Weisz. 

Best Animated Feature Film
Nominees:
* The Incredibles 2
* Isle of Dogs
Mirai
* Ralph Breaks the Internet
* Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse

Prediction: Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse

This is a close one for me between Spider-Man and Isle of Dogs. I love Wes Anderson's films, and between Dogs and Fantastic Mr Fox he has developed a unique style of stop-motion animation that somehow fits his other films like a glove. For sheer quality of animation though, I think Spider-Man will win this. You can freeze literally any frame of that film and it will look like a panel from a comic book. The amount of thought that has gone into achieving that though is extraordinary, and much more extensive than is easy to appreciate - see the video below to see what I mean. It's also won all the awards leading up to this year's Oscars, so is easily the frontrunner in this category.

Cinematography
Nominees
Cold War
* The Favourite
Never Look Away
* Roma
* A Star is Born

Prediction: Roma

This is quite an easy one. Roma is incredibly beautifully shot. There's a fairly simple premise behind its cinematography - all the high definition of modern cinema combined with the timelessness of black and white. The result is stunning - the deep blacks and crisp contrasts really lend themselves beautifully to black and white, to the point where you almost fill the colours in with your mind's eye to create the vibrancy of life in Mexico City. There are lots of wonderfully subtle shots as well that play with the use of light, such as the reflection of a plane flying across the surface of a puddle of mop-water, or the gentle lightening of the night's sky as a forest fire strikes up in the distance. There is some wonderful cinematography in A Star is Born, especially in the concert scenes, but there's no way this isn't going to Roma.

Costume Design
Nominees
* The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
* Black Panther
* The Favourite
* Mary Poppins Returns
* Mary Queen of Scots

Prediction: The Favourite

This is another really difficult one. The Academy could easily give this to Black Panther, which had awesome costumes that showed the different tribes of Wakanda and established their various identities. I think though that it's more likely to go to one of the period dramas - The Favourite or Mary Queen of Scots. Nothing showcases great costume design better than a film set in a royal court, and these two films have three royal courts between them. The Favourite has been the more successful film of the two and it won the BAFTA, so I think it just about has the edge. 

Best Director
Nominees:
* Spike Lee, BlackkKlansman
Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
* Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
* Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
* Adam McKay, Vice

Prediction: Roma

Alfonso Cuaron has good pedigree with the Academy, having won the Directing Oscar for his last film, Gravity. Much as I loved that film, Roma feels much more like his masterpiece. It's clear from every frame that it's a project he's poured his heart and soul into. Each of the nominated films in this category showcases the personality of its director, but Roma is the only one that feels like a window into his life. Cuaron has already won the Globe and BAFTA equivalents and I see no reason why he wouldn't win the Oscar too. 

Film Editing
Nominees:
* BlackkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
* The Favourite
* Green Book
* Vice

Prediction: Vice

Although I can imagine it going to Bohemian Rhapsody for its recreations of Queen's concerts or The Favourite for its chaptered structure and title cards, I think Vice particularly deserves this award. Vice is a witty, provocative film with a lot of anger towards its subject matter, and most of that wit and anger comes from the editing. Its juxtaposition of shots of Dick Cheney calmly persuading politicians and Presidents to go to war in Iraq with shots of the effects of those decisions is chilling, and tells you the message of the film without anyone having to tell you the message through the dialogue. It's almost documentary-like in the way it presents an opinion through the way it tells you the facts. And the fact that it does so in such an entertaining and engrossing way is testament to the skill that went into the editing. 

Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees:
Capernaum
Cold War
Never Look Away
Roma
Shoplifters

Prediction: Roma

Of course it's going to be Roma. For all the reasons I've already described, it's one of the most well-made films of the year. The fact that it's the only foreign language film up for Best Film (let alone the fact that it might win best film) almost means it's already won by default. 

Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees:
Border
* Mary Queen of Scots
* Vice

Prediction: Vice

This is a bit of a difficult one between Mary Queen of Scots and Vice (Border might be in the running as well but I haven't heard of it so I'll assume not). Mary Queen of Scots had some excellent hair and makeup to turn Margot Robbie into Elizabeth I, both in the effects makeup used to create her pox scars and thinning hair, and in the more garish makeup and wigs used by the character to hide those effects. Vice's nomination in this category rides almost entirely on the makeup used to turn Christian Bale into Dick Cheney, but that is such an impressive feat that I'd be surprised if it doesn't win the day. It's reminiscent of last year's winner, Darkest Hour, and its transformation of Gary Oldman into Winston Churchill. There is no equivalent award in the Golden Globes, and the BAFTA for makeup and hair went to The Favourite, which isn't even nominated in the Oscars, but I think although Mary Queen of Scots has more in common with The Favourite, the Academy is more likely to go for Vice.

Music - Original Score
Nominees:
* Ludwig Goransson, Black Panther
* Terence Blanchard, BlackkKlansman
* Nicholas Britell, If Beale Street Could Talk
* Alexandre Desplat, Isle of Dogs
* Marc Shaiman, Mary Poppins Returns

Prediction: Ludwig Goransson, Black Panther

Another tough one, but I actually think Black Panther has a good chance here. The music fits the film perfectly, evoking the tribal African rhythms of its setting but still sounding modern and familiar. The only competition to my mind is Isle of Dogs - Alexandre Desplat has won a couple of Oscars before, and his is the only name on the list that I recognise. Isle of Dogs and Mary Poppins were the only ones on the list that were also nominated for a Golden Globe and a BAFTA, although interestingly in both cases they were beaten by films that haven't even been nominated in the Oscars (First Man and A Star is Born, respectively), so it's actually quite an open field. I wouldn't be surprised if Desplat wins it, but I'm putting my money on Black Panther.

Music - Original Song
​Nominees: 
* All the Stars, Black Panther
I'll Fight, RBG
* The Place Where Lost Things Go, Mary Poppins Returns
* Shallow, A Star is Born
* When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Prediction: Shallow, A Star is Born

Although I don't think she is likely to win Best Actress, I think Lady Gaga did an incredible job in A Star is Born, given that it was her first significant acting role (no, I'm not counting Machete Kills Again as a significant acting role). This would be a very well-deserved consolation prize. Shallow is a very lovely song in its own right that also encapsulates the heart of the film. The Star is Born and Black Panther soundtracks both did very well in the charts, but I think the fact that both Shallow and Lady Gaga actually appeared in the film (unlike All the Stars and Kendrick Lamar in Black Panther) will make Shallow more memorable in the Academy voters' minds.

Production Design
Nominees:
* Black Panther
* The Favourite
* First Man
* Mary Poppins Returns
* Roma

Prediction: Black Panther

I'm not 100% sure with this one. The Favourite won the BAFTA but, much as it would absolutely deserve the Oscar too, it's hard to know whether its Britishness made it more appealing to the BAFTA voters. Black Panther would also definitely deserve the award. It did a fantastic job of creating the world of Wakanda through the design of the sets and staging, and made fantastic use of colour to differentiate between the different tribes. At the other end of the chromatic scale, I also wouldn't rule out Roma again, but I think Black Panther was more inventive. 

Visual Effects
Nominees: 
* Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robin
* First Man
* Ready Player One
* Solo: A Star Wars Story

Prediction: Avengers: Infinity War

As I said at the beginning, I loved Avengers. It was full of incredible special effects, including fully-realised CGI characters, believable landscapes on other planets and moons, and epic sci-fi battles. Since that list encapsulates everything that the visual effects in the other nominees have to offer in combination, it would feel wrong to give any of them the award. Thanos alone would be enough to make Avengers a worthy winner. He could have looked awful (like he did in some of his cameos in the other Marvel films), but they managed to make him not only completely believable but actually fleshed out and almost sympathetic as a character. Ready Player One was a great film but the effects were deliberately low-tech to give it a computer-game feel. First Man also had some great effects, and I would gladly give anything by Damien Chazelle all the awards he can carry, but the effects were used a lot more sparingly than the other nominees. 

Adapted Screenplay
Nominees:
* The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
* BlackkKlansman
* Can You Ever Forgive Me
* If Beale Street Could Talk
* A Star is Born

Prediction: BlackkKlansman

This is actually a really tough one. If it were up to me, I'd give it to The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, which was possibly my favourite film of the year. The Cohen Brothers always write a great screenplay, and in this they effectively made 6 great screenplays that each stood apart from each other but also worked together as a whole. However, the fact that it hasn't had many nominations in the other major categories probably means that it won't win. All of the others would be worthy winners, but BlackkKlansman stands out as the one where the writing really made the film what it was. The dialogue was witty and the story was cleverly told. It also made it relevant to today's politics without being too preachy or heavy-handed. 

Original Screenplay
Nominees: 
* The Favourite
First Reformed
* Green Book
* Roma
* Vice

Prediction: Green Book

Another very close one to call. I know nothing about First Reformed, but none of the other nominees winning would surprise me. I'm going with Green Book because again, I think the writing is what makes the film great, more than anything else. It's witty but still accessible, and gives a strong message without being preachy. Plus the dialogue between the two main characters is consistently very entertaining. It doesn't do anything new - a mismatched buddy comedy is a very well-trodden formula - but it does it very effectively. 

Sound Editing
Nominees:
* Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
* First Man
* A Quiet Place
* Roma

Prediction: A Quiet Place

Sound Mixing
Nominees: 
* Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
* First Man
* Roma
* A Star is Born

Prediction: Bohemian Rhapsody

I'm doing these together because, if I'm honest, I've never really got my head around what the difference is between these two categories. I'd like to think that the Academy doesn't really understand it either, and that's why the nominations are almost identical. The BAFTAs very sensibly merge them into one Best Sound award and gave it to Bohemian Rhapsody this year which, for a film about Freddy Mercury, makes sense. On that basis, I'm making Bohemian Rhapsody my prediction for Sound Mixing, although it could just as easily go to A Star is Born (another film about music). I would love for A Quiet Place to win the Sound Editing award - it was one of my favourite films of the year and the use of sound in it was very innovative and effective. I think there's a very good chance that could also go to Bohemian Rhapsody but I'm going to stick with A Quiet Place.

Animated Short Film
Nominees:
* Animal Behaviour
* Bao
* Late Afternoon
* One Small Step
Weekends

Prediction: Bao

I managed to find most of these on Youtube today. I had already seen Bao, a Pixar short which played before Incredibles 2, and in my head it was always the one to beat. It's heartwarming, funny and completely original. Having seen the others, I'm sticking with my gut feeling. Animal Behaviour wasn't great, and Late Afternoon was beautiful but quite simplistic in its style (which can be nice, but doesn't have the impact of Pixar at its best). The only competition is One Small Step, which is also Pixar and also a beautiful little film, but it doesn't quite have Bao's originality. 

And the rest...

I'm going to rush through the other categories, as I know next to nothing about them and there is now a very real risk that I'll still be writing this blog when the ceremony starts! 

Live action short
Nominees: 
Detainment
Fauve
Marguerite
Mother
Skin

Prediction: Skin

Documentary feature
Nominees: 
​Free Solo
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons
RBG

Prediction: Free Solo

Documentary short
Nominees:
Black Sheep
End Game
Lifeboat
A Night at the Garden
Period. End of Sentence.

Prediction: Black Sheep

So that's it! The ceremony starts in about an hour tonight and I'm staying up to watch it. If anyone else is still awake and wants to leave comments agreeing or disagreeing with my thoughts, please feel free to do so below. 

It's that time of year again, where I remember that I have a film blog and cast my opinions into the internet about who should win the Oscars. I suspect it will all go a bit predictably, but that is a good thing as all the favourites are awesome. As with previous years, I'll list the nominees first, and put a star by those that I've managed to see this year. Here we go...

Best Picture
Nominees:
Call Me By Your Name
* Darkest Hour
* Dunkirk
* Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
* The Post
* The Shape of Water
* Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Prediction: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

This is a tough one to call between Shape of Water and Three Billboards, but I think Three Billboards will just edge it. They're both beautiful films in their own ways, but Three Billboards is that little bit wittier and the character arcs a bit more complex. That said, it's quite rare for a film to win Best Picture that hasn't also been nominated for Best Director, and despite being thoroughly deserving of a nomination, Three Billboards director Martin McDonagh was snubbed in that category. It could go either way but Three Billboards won the equivalent awards at the Globes and BAFTAs, so that would be my guess. The other nominees that I have seen were all great too but I don't think they're quite going to be good enough...

Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: 
Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)
Daniel Day Lewis (Phantom Thread)
* Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
* Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Denzel Washington (Roman J Israel, Esq.)

Prediction: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)

I've only seen two of the nominees in this category this year, and much as I love Daniel Kaluuya I doubt he'll beat Gary Oldman. Given that Oldman has won the Best Actor award in basically every other awards ceremony this year, I doubt any of the others will beat him either (although never rule out Daniel Day Lewis, who has always been a favourite of the Academy and is supposedly retiring after Phantom Thread). Oldman thoroughly deserves it too - his Churchill is fantastic, showing real depth and emotion despite the thick layers of prosthetics, which must have been really challenging. You really feel for him throughout the film, and when he gets to his famous speech, it's every bit as inspiring as it was when the real Churchill did it in 1940. He's one of those actors who's been a highlight of every film you've seen him in, and it's about time that was recognised. 

Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees:
* Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
* Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
* Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
* Meryl Streep (The Post)

Prediction: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards)

I think this is the first year for a while where I've seen more of the Best Actress nominees than the Best Actor nominees (the only one I haven't seen is Lady Bird, which has only just come out in the UK, but depending on the weather I might try and see it before Sunday night). It's a really strong field - Meryl Streep is one of the most decorated actors ever at the Oscars, Sally Hawkins and Margot Robbie were both utterly brilliant, and I've been a big fan of Saoirse Ronan for a while now. All of that said, there is no way this is going to anyone other than Frances McDormand. She is like a force of nature in Three Billboards, full of rage but with an undercurrent of love and sadness that makes her really likeable and human, even when she's throwing molotov cocktails at a police station. Like Gary Oldman, she's been winning all the awards for this role and I can't see the Academy breaking that trend. 

Actor in a supporting role
Nominees: 
Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
* Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
* Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
* Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World)
* Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Prediction: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards)

Another one where I suspect the Academy will come to the same decision as every other awards body this year. I've been a fan of Sam Rockwell since Moon and it's great to see his work getting this level of recognition. He is fantastic in Three Billboards and has one of the best character arcs I've ever seen. I don't want to spoil too much about what he goes through, but he starts out as completely horrible and by the end becomes far more human and sympathetic (but still imperfect). Woody Harrelson is incredible too but I think suffers from having slightly less screen time than Rockwell. Plummer did a great job given the fact that he was pulled in at the last minute to be photoshopped over Kevin Spacey, and his nomination is a great testament to that, but I don't think it deserves more than a nomination. 

Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees: 
Mary J Blige (Mudbound)
* Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)
Laurie Metcalfe (Lady Bird)
* Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)

Prediction: Allison Janney (I, Tonya)

I've only seen a couple of the nominees in this category, but again it's gone consistently to Allison Janney in the build-up awards and I would be surprised if she doesn't get it here as well. Her character bears a lot of similarities to Frances McDormand in Three Billboards - they both swear (a lot), and both come across as tough as nails. In Janney's case though it's a lot harder to tell whether we should be on her side or not. Her tough love approach to raising her daughter is sometimes so extreme that it calls the love part into question. Coupled with the film's theme of truth as a subjective concept rather than an expression of fact, she becomes someone whose motivations are a complete mystery, which has a risk of distancing her too much from the audience. Janney's performance undercuts all of that by making her the most watchable thing in the film. Whether she's shouting Tonya down about whether or not she was a good mother, or visibly resisting the urge to headbutt a parrot off her shoulder, she's incredibly compelling. Octavia Spencer was great too but this has to go to Janney. 

Animated Feature Film
Nominees: 
* Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
* Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent

Prediction: Coco

There is a general rule that has been in place since the early 2000s, which is that if Pixar have made a good film, they will probably win the Oscar. Coco is an incredibly good film. The animation quality is stunning, the music is beautiful, and the story is heartwarming and poignant. Everything about it evokes the warmth and vibrancy of Mexico, from the all-Latin cast to the rich colours, gentle lighting and authentic use of instruments in both the score and the songs. It is the one film where a character can melt the audience's hearts by telling a young boy "I hope you die soon." The other nominees are more of a mixed bag. Dreamworks' Boss Baby was surprisingly surreal but not a patch on Pixar at their best (or, for that matter, Dreamworks at their best). The Breadwinner was made by Cartoon Saloon, the company behind the brilliant Secret of Kells and Song of the Sea, and if it's anywhere near as good as them then it could stand a chance. Both of those films were beaten by Disney or Pixar though. Loving Vincent could be recognised for the sheer level of craftsmanship that went into it - every frame is a separate hand painted oil painting in the style of Van Gogh - but without seeing it I don't know if the story was good enough to beat Coco. 

Cinematography
Nominees:
* Blade Runner 2049
* Darkest Hour
* Dunkirk
Mudbound
* The Shape of Water

Prediction: Blade Runner 2049

This could very easily go to Shape of Water or Dunkirk, but I really hope Blade Runner wins it. Not just because the cinematography is brilliant - the futuristic cityscapes are completely brought to life by the atmosphere of the lighting - but because cinematographer Roger Deakins has been nominated for 14 Oscars (his earliest being the Shawshank Redemption) and has not yet won one. 

Costume Design
Nominees: 
* Beauty and the Beast
* Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
* The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul

Prediction: Phantom Thread

This is potentially quite a close one. Costume Design is an award that normally favours period drama (which would put Darkest Hour and Victoria and Abdul in the lead) or films with a fairytale element lending scope for lots of big dresses and posh frocks (like Beauty and the Beast). However, Phantom Thread is literally a film about costume design. I haven't seen it, but I would expect that the level of detail going into the dresses designed by Day Lewis' character would be under greater scrutiny than the costumes in any of the other nominees, both within the film itself and by critics. Given the number of other nominations that the film has picked up, there has clearly been a lot of thought put into it. I also think that this would be a good opportunity for the Academy to recognise a film that is likely to lose out to stronger contenders in the other categories. 

Directing
Nominees:
* Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
* Jordan Peele (Get Out)
Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread)
* Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water)

Prediction: Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water)

I am very pleased that one of my favourite directors is the frontrunner for this award. I love everything Del Toro has made - both the Spanish horrors such as Pan's Labyrinth and The Devil's Backbone, and the Hollywood blockbusters like Hellboy and Pacific Rim. The Shape of Water is a perfect blend of the two and incorporates everything Del Toro does best - monsters with heart, villains who out-monster the monsters, and horror as a story device rather than a gimmick. It's a completely beautiful and touching romance despite the fact that half of the lead couple does at one point eat a cat. The others are all great, but if Del Toro doesn't win this I'll be very disappointed.

Editing
Nominees:
* Baby Driver
* Dunkirk
* I, Tonya
* The Shape of Water
* Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Prediction: Dunkirk

This is a tough one again - Shape of Water and Three Billboards deserve anything they get, and Baby Driver was one of my favourite films of the year (and had fantastic editing), but I think Dunkirk is a good contender for this award. The film has three separate storylines which each take place over a different length of time, but they're cut together in a way that makes each of them all the more exciting. 

Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees:
* Darkest Hour
Victoria and Abdul
Wonder

Prediction: Darkest Hour

This is another category that favours period dramas (with the odd exception, like last year's winner Suicide Squad). The level of prosthetics that turned Gary Oldman into Winston Churchill has to give Darkest Hour the edge this year. 

Music - Original Score
Nominees:
* Hans Zimmer (Dunkirk)
Jonny Greenwood (Phantom Thread)
* Alexandre Desplat (The Shape of Water)
* John Williams (Star Wars: The Last Jedi)
* Carter Burwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Prediction: Alexandre Desplat (The Shape of Water)

This is a difficult one for me, as my tastes often seem to be quite different to the Academy, and I've changed my mind a few times now. Again, it could very easily go to Shape of Water or Three Billboards. I love everything Hans Zimmer does, and whilst the Dunkirk soundtrack isn't something I would want to sit in my room and listen to, it works incredibly well for the film. John Williams is always great and I'd love to see him win this, but he last won an Oscar in 1994 for Schindler's List despite this being his 13th nomination since that win. That either means he's due another one (he definitely is), or the Academy just prefers something different. The Last Jedi soundtrack is, as you might expect, very similar to the Force Awakens soundtrack, which Williams was nominated for and beaten to by Ennio Morricone for the Hateful Eight. I have a feeling he might be pipped here again. I can't comment on the Phantom Thread soundtrack as I haven't heard it, so that takes me back to Shape of Water and Three Billboards. I love the music in Three Billboards, but based on the fact that Desplat won the Globe and the BAFTA, I'm going with Shape of Water. 

Music - Original Song
Nominees: 
Mighty River (Mudbound)
Mystery of Love (Call Me By Your Name)
* Remember Me (Coco)
Stand Up For Something (Marshall)
* This Is Me (The Greatest Showman)

Prediction: Remember Me (Coco)

I really enjoyed the Greatest Showman, which was hugely successful and worked well as a West End style original musical. This Is Me probably wasn't my favourite song from it, but it is incredibly catchy and its message of being yourself whatever anyone else thinks is one that I suspect the Academy voters will like. However, the music in Coco is so much more poignant and beautiful. Remember Me fits into the plot of the film as well as its themes, and once you've seen it it's hard not to get a bit emotional when you hear the song. For me it's a clear winner and I hope it gets what it deserves.

Production Design
Nominees: 
* Beauty and the Beast
* Blade Runner 2049
* Darkest Hour
* Dunkirk
* The Shape of Water

Prediction: Beauty and the Beast

Another difficult one - all of these films have a very distinctive look and it could very easily go to Shape of Water or Blade Runner. Dunkirk and Darkest Hour may suffer from their similarities - voters who are inclined towards war movies will be split between them. I think though that the amount of work that went into making Beauty and the Beast mirror the look and feel of the original Disney film deserves some credit. This includes the fact that the furniture comprises half the actual cast. 

Sound Editing
Nominees:
* Baby Driver
* Blade Runner 2049
* Dunkirk
* The Shape of Water
* Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Prediction: Baby Driver

I'm never entirely sure what the distinction is between sound editing and sound mixing. However, Baby Driver stood out because of the way the soundtrack was woven into the film, with the diegetic sound of Baby's iPod dictating the choice of songs which in turn dictated the rhythm of everything that happened on screen. Edgar Wright's always been particularly good at that sort of thing, but Baby Driver is his masterpiece when it comes to the use of the sound. 

Sound Mixing
​Nominees:
* Baby Driver
* Blade Runner 2049
* Dunkirk
* The Shape of Water
* Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Prediction: Dunkirk

My favourite thing about Dunkirk was the way the sound was used to create a heavy, claustrophobic atmosphere. Hans Zimmer's score and the constant noise of plane engines, bullets and sea made for a steady barrage of sound, giving the impression that there is no escape from the situation that the British armies had found themselves in. It's the sound equivalent of seeing huge heavy rainclouds ready to burst - uncomfortable and unsettling. You don't even realise it's there until the end, when it finally breaks and all the tension rushes out of you, making the happiness of the survivors all the more palpable and real. 

Visual Effects
Nominees:
* Blade Runner 2049
* Star Wars: The Last Jedi
* Kong: Skull Island
* Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2
* War of the Planet of the Apes

Prediction: War of the Planet of the Apes

The recent run of Planet of the Apes films have had some of the best CGI I've ever seen, and it's only got better as they've gone on. All the ape characters are completely distinguishable and believable. The quality of the performance capture is stunning - getting perfect expressions on their faces that make them relatable even as they battle against the human characters. It may suffer from having been released too early in the year though - the Academy often has a very short memory. On that basis, Star Wars might pip it to the post. Star Wars and Blade Runner have both had a number of other nominations, which could also give them the edge. If it was up to me though it would go to Planet of the Apes. 

Writing - Adapted Screenplay
Nominees:
Call Me By Your Name
* The Disaster Artist
* Logan
* Molly's Game
Mudbound

Prediction: Call Me By Your Name

I loved The Disaster Artist and Logan, and would be very happy if either of them won. However, I think it's unlikely, given the sexual misconduct allegations against James Franco (which probably led to him losing out on the Best Film and Best Actor nominations), and the fact that superhero films don't tend to do well outside of the technical categories. The writing awards tend to go to films that have also been nominated for Best Picture, and Call Me By Your Name is the only option for both this year. Plus films about coming of age and finding yourself have a lot of scope for quality writing. 

Writing - Original Screenplay
Nominees:
The Big Sick
* Get Out
Lady Bird
* The Shape of Water
* Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Prediction: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Again, it's probably going to be down to Three Billboards or Shape of Water. Both are beautifully written, but the Shape of Water's beauty is in what is not said. Elisa and the creature bond because Elisa is mute, so she has grown accustomed to communication without words, making her more able to connect with someone lacking any vocal chords or language. The relationship is expressed through their actions more than the dialogue. Obviously a script is more than just the dialogue, but dialogue still forms the backbone of a script and it would be interesting if a film with two mute leads ends up winning the writing award. Three Billboards on the other hand, like McDonagh's earlier masterpiece In Bruges, is all in the dialogue, which is sharp and witty enough to be incredibly funny but has enough pathos to develop an emotional connection with the audience. I'd be happy if either of them won it though. 

...And the rest

I have not seen any of the nominees for the other categories (shorts, documentaries, and foreign language films). There hasn't even been a Disney or Pixar short this year, which is usually my only hope for seeing any of these! Rather than go through all of them, I am going to just list my predictions based on whether I've heard of the nominees and whether I like the names. 

Best Foreign Language Film
Prediction: A Fantastic Woman (none of the nominees won the award at the Globes or the BAFTAs, but A Fantastic Woman is the only one I've heard of so let's go with that).

Short Film (Animated)
Prediction: Dear Basketball (again, the Globes don't have an equivalent award and the BAFTA winner wasn't nominated for an Oscar, so I'm going for the only one I've heard of. I've heard of it because it was made by basketball player Kobe Bryant, which probably means it wasn't great and won't win, but still...)

Short Film (Live Action)
Prediction: The Silent Child (the other ceremonies are being decidedly unhelpful so far, as none of the nominees here won a BAFTA either. I'm choosing this just because I like the title).

Documentary (Feature)
Prediction: Last Men in Aleppo (sounds political. They tend to like that...)

Documentary (Short)
Prediction: Heroin(e) (again, sounds political)

It's the Oscars tonight, so it's time for my annual blog post predicting the winners. As usual, I will put an asterisk next to the ones that I have actually seen when listing the nominees. I'm pleased to say I've seen quite a few of them this year!

Best Picture
Nominees:
* Arrival
* Fences
* Hacksaw Ridge
* Hell or High Water
* Hidden Figures
* La La Land
* Lion
* Manchester by the Sea
* Moonlight

Prediction: La La Land

I think for the first time ever, I've managed to see all of the Best Picture nominees this year and I have thoroughly enjoyed all of them. However, the one that stands out most is La La Land. I won't go into too much detail as I've written at length about it in its own post, but it's completely different to any of the other nominees. And I think the Academy will feel the same way - the fact that it is all about the magic of living and working in Hollywood will mean that it chimes with the voters even more than it did with me. Aside from that, it deserves it - it's a fantastically well made film, as reflected in the record-equalling number of nominations it's received this year. 

Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
* Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
* Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
* Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
* Denzel Washington (Fences)

Prediction: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)

This is actually quite a tough one to call, as it could very easily go to Denzel Washington. Fences' strength lies firmly in the characters, which are brilliantly acted and written, and Washington's charismatic, bitter Troy is incredibly compelling to watch. However, Affleck's performance entirely carries Manchester by the Sea. It's very nuanced and subtle, but he manages to convey some incredible emotion. 

Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Isabelle Huppert (Elle)
* Ruth Negga (Loving)
Natalie Portman (Jackie)
* Emma Stone (La La Land)
Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)

Prediction: Emma Stone (La La Land)

Again this is a tough one to call, although in this case it's partly because I haven't seen many of the nominees. From what I've read it sounds like Huppert has a good chance too, and Portman was an early favourite, but partly because she won the BAFTA I'm predicting it will go to Stone. Again though, I genuinely think she deserves it. I've been a big fan of Stone's for a while now, and she's always given great performances. La La Land plays well to her strengths - her character is quirky and likeable and gives her an opportunity to show off her range. That said, I would love Meryl Streep to win this just to see what she says in her acceptance speech...

Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: 
* Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
* Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
* Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)
* Dev Patel (Lion)
Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)

Prediction: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)

I had read a lot about Ali's performance in Moonlight before I saw the film, and was surprised by how little screentime he had. However, he did completely steal every scene he was in, as a drug dealer with a heart. It's particularly fascinating watching him wrestle with his conscience as he berates Little's mother for taking the drugs that he had sold her, when she should have been taking care of her son. Dev Patel beat Ali to the BAFTA, but I suspect it helped that he had the home advantage among the British voters - great as he is in Lion, this should go to Mahershala Ali.

Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
* Viola Davies (Fences)
* Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
* Nicole Kidman (Lion)
* Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
* Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)

Prediction: Viola Davies (Fences)

​Davies is fantastic in Fences as a wife trying to get by in the shadow of her husband, which is mirrored by the impressive way she manages to pull the attention away from Denzel Washington. She also manages the equally impressive feat of making her nose run on cue. I'd be very happy to see this go to Kidman or Harris, but Davies' snotty crying should be enough to win her the Oscar. 

Animated Feature Film
Nominees: 
* Kubo and the Two Strings
* Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
* Zootopia

Prediction: Kubo and the Two Strings

Disney has had a fantastic year this year - both Moana and Zootropolis were beautifully well made films, rich with detail and full of heart. Kubo however was one of my favourite films, possibly even my favourite of the last year. Like many of my favourite films, it's steeped in mythology and transitions comfortably between humour and tragedy. Beyond that though, the sheer craftsmanship behind it is breathtaking. Paper magically folds itself into origami warriors, giant monsters loom out of the darkness, and good and evil fight with samurai swords, all in perfect stop motion. Laika, the studio that made it (as well as Coraline and Boxtrolls), has proven itself to be every bit as good as the more famous animation studios like Disney and Pixar, and it's about time it gets the reward and recognition it deserves. It wouldn't surprise me if one of the Disney nominees wins this, but I would love to see it go to Kubo. 

Cinematography
Nominees:
* Arrival
* La La Land
* Lion
* Moonlight
Silence

Prediction: La La Land

This is a close one between Moonlight and La La Land. Moonlight is moody and atmospheric, with some beautiful lighting that really sets the tone of the film. You can tell that there is also a lot of thought that's gone into the way it's framed and shot. La La Land however gets the edge largely because of its incredible one-shot opening number on the freeway. 

Costume Design
Nominees: 
Allied
* Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land

Prediction: Florence Foster Jenkins

I am not 100% sure on this one. All the nominees have either a period setting, which the Academy often likes in this category, or they have a showbusiness element to their plot allowing them to showcase some fancy frocks. Florence Foster Jenkins, although I haven't seen it, seems to combine both of those elements, so that's getting my prediction. That said, the BAFTA went to Jackie (against the same nominees) so the Academy might vote the same way. 

Directing
Nominees:
* Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)
* Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)
* Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
* Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
* Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)

Prediction: Damien Chazelle (La La Land)

For all of the reasons that I've already said, both here and in the La La Land review, I think this has to go to Damien Chazelle. This is only his third feature length film, and yet he's already establishing a clear style and a ridiculous number of awards nominations. He's done a fantastic job with La La Land and I'll be very surprised if the Academy doesn't reward him for that. 

Documentary Feature
Prediction: O.J.: Made in America

Documentary Short
Prediction: Watani: My Homeland

Foreign Language Film
Prediction: Toni Erdmann

Short Film (Animated)
Prediction: * Piper

Short Film (Live Action)
Prediction: La Femme et le TGV

I'm lumping these together a bit as I have only seen one of the nominees between them (Piper, the gorgeous Pixar short that was screened ahead of Finding Dory and is sure to win the Oscar). I've picked these through a combination of what I've heard about them, and whether I like their names...

Film Editing
Nominees:
* Arrival
* Hacksaw Ridge
* Hell or High Water
* La La Land
* Moonlight

Prediction: Hacksaw Ridge

Partly because it won the BAFTA, and partly because I'm running out of clips of La La Land, I'm going with Hacksaw Ridge on this one. The war scenes were brutal and that was largely down to immaculate editing, cutting quickly between shots of grisly action without it ever becoming any more confusing than it was supposed to. 

Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees:
A Man Called Ove
* Star Trek Beyond
* Suicide Squad

Prediction: Star Trek Beyond

I haven't even heard of A Man Called Ove so have no idea what the makeup and hair is like in that. Star Trek and Suicide Squad both have some great examples of alien/monstrous characters with very believable makeup. However, Suicide Squad was quite badly critically panned, whereas Star Trek went down slightly better, so that might work in Star Trek's favour. Trek also benefits from a wider variety of aliens, and so a wider variety of prosthetics to show off.

Music (Original Score)
Nominees: 
Jackie
* La La Land
* Lion
* Moonlight
* Passengers

Prediction: La La Land

As a musical, it would be very surprising if La La Land didn't win this one. The jazz that infuses the film is what gives it its character. The others had some fantastic music too, especially Moonlight, but it has to go to La La Land.

Music (Original Song)
* "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)" (La La Land)
"Can't Stop the Feeling" (Trolls)
* "City of Stars" (La La Land)
"The Empty Chair" (Jim: The James Foley Story)
* "How Far I'll Go" (Moana)

Prediction: How Far I'll Go (Moana)

I actually think this will go to City of Stars, and again given the film's musical credentials and the fact it has two nominations in this category it's hard to see it not going to La La Land one way or another. That said, the two songs that have been nominated are probably my least favourite ones from the film - they are beautiful, but they're not as fun or as jazzy as some of the others (Another Day of Sun in particular). On that basis, I'm going to go with my favourite song of the nominees, How Far I'll Go from Moana. It's written by Lin Manuel Miranda, who just needs this award to become one of only 3 people in history to have a PEGOT (Pulitzer, Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, Tony). It's also sung by a 16 year old girl with more power and maturity than many current pop stars. Plus of course, the song itself is beautiful - full of yearning for travel and adventure. The award is almost certainly going to City of Stars, but I'd give it to How Far I'll Go... 

Production Design
Nominees:
* Arrival
* Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
* Hail, Caesar!
* La La Land
* Passengers

Prediction: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

This is a hard one, but Fantastic Beasts required a lot of design work to set up the wizarding world in America. The Harry Potter franchise has always done a great job of going into tremendous amounts of detail when it comes to world building. It's more fantastical than La La Land or Hail Caesar (and so has more scope for elaborate and inventive designs) but makes more use of practical effects in its world building than the CGI-heavy sci-fis Arrival and Passengers. It also has the added challenge of recreating its '50s America period setting. Plus it won the BAFTA in this category, which is a good indication that it may do well here. 

Sound Editing
Prediction: * La La Land

Sound Mixing
Prediction: * Arrival

I've never been much good at the sound categories (I still don't entirely understand the distinction between editing and mixing). La La Land seems a pretty good bet with each of them, but Arrival is also nominated for both categories and took the award for Sound at the BAFTAs. It was a fantastic film and I'd like to see it take something!

Visual Effects
Nominees:
Deepwater Horizon
* Doctor Strange
* The Jungle Book
* Kubo and the Two Strings
* Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Prediction: The Jungle Book

Much as I am glad to see Kubo nominated again, this one has to go to the Jungle Book. Literally everything that appeared in the film other than Mowgli was CGI, yet it looked photorealistic. The way the animals moved their mouths made it actually believable that they could talk. It was more than just a technical achievement too - the film looked beautiful, with its lush greenery, tranquil rivers and ancient crumbling temples. 

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
* Arrival
* Fences
* Hidden Figures
* Lion
* Moonlight

Prediction: Moonlight

This is a very close call between Moonlight and Fences (both adapted from the stage plays by their respective playwrights). The only reason I think it will be Moonlight is because Fences seems to be a rather direct adaptation of the stage play it is based on - I don't get the impression that it has been changed much to fit the medium of cinema. Moonlight on the other hand has accounted for the bigger set of tools that a filmmaker has at their disposal. That said, the plot of Fences revolves entirely around the writing, and the interaction between the characters, and I wouldn't be surprised if it pips Moonlight to the post. 

Writing (Original Screenplay)
Nominees:
* Hell or High Water
* La La Land
The Lobster
* Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women

Prediction: Manchester by the Sea

Much as I loved La La Land, the beauty of it is far more in the music and visuals than it is in the writing. That's not to say that it isn't well written - it absolutely is - but I think Manchester by the Sea has the edge on it in this category. The frustration and misery of the characters that comes through in their interactions is completely relatable. Like Fences, most of the driving force behind the plot takes place off-screen or in the past, leaving space for the dialogue between the various characters to take centre stage and carry the weight of the film. 

And that's everything! In summary, expect big wins for La La Land, Moonlight, Fences and Manchester by the Sea. We'll find out tonight how many of these I got right...

I had mixed expectations going into this film. I've never played any of the games (they always seem to be on a more modern console than I own), but they always looked very cinematic from their adverts. Plus the director, Justin Kurzel, and two leads, Michael Fassbender and Marion Cotillard, previously collaborated on an adaptation of Macbeth which garnered some incredible reviews (although unfortunately I didn't see that either). On the other hand, video game adaptations are notoriously quite bad, and the reviews for this were underwhelming. 

However, there was a lot to enjoy. Fassbender and Cotillard are always fantastic and dependable actors, and there were some of my favourite actors in support, including Jeremy Irons and Brendan Gleeson. All of them fitted comfortably into their roles (although it was never explained how the very British Jeremy Irons raised the very French Marion Cotillard). 

The action was great too. I always think that one of the key things about video game adaptations is that they should be stylistically reminiscent of the games that they are based on. It's not enough to just copy the plot and characters; a large part of their audience will be the fans of the game, and you have to make them feel as if they are reliving their memory of playing it. To my limited experience of watching the game being played, the film did this well - it featured the mix of parkour and hand-to-hand combat that the games are known for, and did a great job of capturing the look and feel of the costumes and settings. Some scenes even gave me that memory from other platform games that I have played, such as when Fassbender is running through an underground tunnel as disposable baddies drop periodically from the roof and try to stop him. They also managed to include several instances of the most famous shot of the franchise, with an assassin perched on a tall building ready to jump fearlessly off into the void. 

Not having played the game was in some ways an advantage. The mission that underpinned the bulk of the plot was a bit on the silly side and involved a mcguffin that was never really explained, but I was quite happy to put that down to being something that was important in the game and for whatever reason did not translate well to the big screen. It also did what every good video game adaptation should do for people like me, and made me want to give the game a go (even more than I already did). 

Hacksaw Ridge is one of the most violent films I've seen in a long while. Right from the off, the war scenes are horrific - a blood-soaked, fiery chaos with bullets and severed limbs flying everywhere and pieces of people littering the ground. I am pleased to say that I've never been in a war and have no idea whether it is a realistic portrayal of the nightmare of a WW2 battlefield, or an almost cartoonishly graphic display dialled up for the cinema. If it's the former, then it's a brave film for not trying to tone it down to suit audience sensibilities, and if it's the latter, it deserves extra credit for making me believe it could be the former. Either way, it's a harrowing experience to watch, and really hammers home how terrifying it must have been for the real life soldiers who marched into battle in 1940 with nothing to protect them but a rifle. 

All of which makes the true story at the heart of the film all the more incredible. Desmond Doss, played here by Andrew Garfield, was a conscientious objector who wanted to serve in the army as a combat medic. He marched on the front line with the other soldiers, but without a rifle or any other weapon to protect himself. It's heroic on two levels - not only does he walk into that maelstrom of death knowing that the fact he was unarmed would not stop the enemy from killing him on sight (at one point, he is even warned that the Japanese army took particular pleasure in taking out anyone wearing a red cross), but he also, miraculously, managed to save a huge number of lives in the process. It's a hell of a story, and the archive footage of veterans just before the credits is an effective way of reminding the audience that it actually happened. 

Not all of the film takes place on the battlefield. After the brief but violent opening, it cuts back to Doss's childhood and the first act establishes some context for his reasons for not wanting to fight. Hugo Weaving is particularly brilliant in these scenes as Doss's father - a depressed, short tempered WW1 veteran who is clearly scarred by his experiences and suffers some serious survivor's guilt. It's actually quite upsetting to see him playing such a broken man - I'm used to seeing Weaving in proud, confident roles like Elrond in Lord of the Rings or Agent Smith in the Matrix, although he's just as commanding a presence here. We also meet Dorothy, played by Teresa Palmer, who Doss quickly falls in love with. The romance is just the right level of cheesy to make you like the characters and give you an extra reason to root for them, without being too sickly sweet. 

The second act shows Doss in military training, and features some fantastic comedy moments (which are much needed between the brooding Doss Senior and the bullet ridden war scenes). The other cadets are introduced as a normal group of guys, ranging from dull to eccentric but with a generally warm camaraderie as they mess about with the new recruit. The messing about abruptly ends when Vince Vaughan's Sergeant Howell, the source of much of the comedy, enters unannounced and starts drily giving out nicknames. A couple of the cadets are more obviously unprepared for him than others, and watching Vaughan casually pacing past them, clearly leaving them until last when he can savour their humiliation, is one of the highlights of the film. 

I won't say too much more about the war scenes in the final act than I already have, as I don't want to spoil the sheer level of heroism that Doss displayed. I thoroughly recommend doing a little research about him afterwards though - you can find his Medal of Honour citation on his Wikipedia page, and as you read it you realise that some of his achievements didn't even make it into the film. According to the film's trivia section on Imdb, the reason for this is that the director Mel Gibson was concerned that if he put all of it in, people wouldn't believe it. 

The tagline on the poster is "One of the greatest heroes in American history never fired a bullet." In that message, it's a very timely film. With US gun laws under such fierce debate over the last couple of years, I think anyone who wants to make America great again could do with a reminder of the awesome achievements of Desmond Doss. (Look at me, I'm getting all political...)

Just a quick review of this one. Manchester by the Sea (Manchester in the USA, not the UK one. In a county called Essex, just to confuse Brits even more...) is a beautiful film. It centres on Lee (Casey Affleck), whose brother dies of a heart disease leaving him to care for his son Patrick (Lucas Hedges). Lee has a past life that has left him reluctant to take on responsibilities or relationships, whilst Patrick has a full life that he doesn't want to set aside to live with his uncle. The performances are all excellent, especially the lead duo of Affleck and Hedges. Lee comes across as a bit emotionally distant at first, but as a series of flashbacks paints his horrifically tragic backstory, all of his interactions gradually make sense. The writing is spot on, at turns darkly funny and painfully poignant, as Affleck and Hedges try to support each other through the necessities that follow the death of a loved one. Every action feels realistic and relatable and you find yourself genuinely emotionally invested in the characters.

I love a good monster movie, so I've been looking forward to this one since I heard the title. And it does have a fantastic monster - a sort of love-child of Treebeard and the Balrog from Lord of the Rings, voiced by the sombre gravelly tones of Liam Neeson. There's a lot of character in its skull like grin. But as you can quickly tell from the trailer, this isn't really a monster movie. It's a tragic drama about a boy, Connor, coming to terms with his mother's terminal illness, and the coping mechanisms he uses to understand the flood of emotions he should be too young to have to experience. 

Ostensibly, the monster's role is to tell Connor three stories, in exchange for Connor telling him a fourth story at the end. The stories are beautifully animated like flowing watercolour paintings, giving them a fairytale quality reminiscent of the story of the Deathly Hallows in the last Harry Potter film. The little asides come as a welcome fantastical relief from the muted colours and soft lighting of the real world. And the real world is rather grim - on top of his sick mother, Connor has to deal with the more common childhood problems of nasty bullies and adults who don't understand him. 

Films that focus on childhood often live or die by the child actors, and director J A Bayona has found a fantastic one in Lewis MacDougall. At the start of the film Connor is introduced as a boy too old to be a kid but too young to be a man, and MacDougall plays both sides of that coin effortlessly. Whether he is showing his mature side or throwing a tantrum, you really feel the unfairness of his situation weighing on his shoulders. 

The adult cast is also very strong. Felicity Jones and Toby Kebbell are completely believable as Connor's divorced parents, both trying in their own ways to protect him from what is happening. The most memorable performance though comes from Sigourney Weaver as Connor's grandmother. She is introduced as a strict and intimidating woman, who Connor sees as the evil queen trying to take him away from his mother. One scene in particular, in which she returns home to find that Connor has misbehaved more than he perhaps intended, creates a terrifying sense of anticipation as the audience waits to see how she will react. However, as the film goes on we watch as Connor starts to understand that she is every bit as angry and distraught about the loss of her daughter as he is about the loss of his mother - a relationship arc that is as poignant as the rest of the plot is heartbreaking. 

And it really is heartbreaking. As adults, we know what is coming right from the off. It is very clear that Connor's mother is not getting better, and that the fantasy he is escaping to really is just a fantasy. The reason I could hear half the audience trying to hold back the tears at the end is because the film does such a great job of connecting you to Connor and seeing the plot through his eyes. Tragic as it undeniably is that the mother is dying, the truly heartbreaking part is what's going on in her son's head. By the time the film reaches its final scenes, the monster almost becomes irrelevant - you just want to give Connor a hug and tell him it's OK. 

J A Bayona has proven with this film that he is adept at handling both big destructive creatures and intimate character-driven plots. I am already looking forward to seeing what he does with his next monster movie: the sequel to Jurassic World...