It's Oscars night again tonight. There's been some fantastic films out this year and so I thought I'd post a quick blog again about my predictions for the winners. I've put a star next to the ones I managed to see...
Best Picture
Nominees:
*Whiplash
*American Sniper
*Birdman
*The Grand Budapest Hotel
*The Imitation Game
Selma
*The Theory of Everything
Boyhood
Prediction:
Birdman
It's a very strong set of nominees and there are a few that would be worthy winners, but I suspect it's going to be down to Birdman and Boyhood. I haven't managed to see Boyhood yet, but I wish I had - it had universally great reviews and won best picture at the Baftas as well as several other awards, plus my housemates have recently shown me a couple of other Linklater films (Before Sunrise and Before Sunset), which were beautifully made despite their quite simple plots. It sounds like Boyhood has gone with a similar theme of taking something relatively mundane and making it into something beautiful, and the conceit of filming the same actors over a period of 12 years is genius.
However, I think that the Oscars are more likely to vote for Birdman. It's a fantastic portrayal of the battle between commercial viability and artistic integrity that so many people in Hollywood constantly have to struggle with, which I think will strike a chord with many of the Academy voters. The way it was shot was stunning - the majority has been made to look like it was all done in one take, and whilst it clearly wasn't, there must have been some very long takes involved in the shoot. Combined with the quick pace and lengthy, emotional tone of the dialogue, the skill that went into making it all work was extraordinary. It's also a very self-reflexive film - Michael Keaton's former superhero-portraying actor trying to reestablish some meaning and creativity into his work is a reflection of Keaton's own life as a former Batman now performing in an artsy Oscar contender. The layers, workmanship and resonance of Birdman should help it win out, and the fact that it is fresher in the Academy's heads than Boyhood should help too.
For the record, I would also love to see Whiplash win this. I suspect Birdman will have the edge again - Whiplash is a bit more intense than the usual winners in this category. That said, they voted for the insanely tense Argo a couple of years ago, so there's a chance they might go for this too...
Best Picture
Nominees:
*Whiplash
*American Sniper
*Birdman
*The Grand Budapest Hotel
*The Imitation Game
Selma
*The Theory of Everything
Boyhood
Prediction:
Birdman
It's a very strong set of nominees and there are a few that would be worthy winners, but I suspect it's going to be down to Birdman and Boyhood. I haven't managed to see Boyhood yet, but I wish I had - it had universally great reviews and won best picture at the Baftas as well as several other awards, plus my housemates have recently shown me a couple of other Linklater films (Before Sunrise and Before Sunset), which were beautifully made despite their quite simple plots. It sounds like Boyhood has gone with a similar theme of taking something relatively mundane and making it into something beautiful, and the conceit of filming the same actors over a period of 12 years is genius.
However, I think that the Oscars are more likely to vote for Birdman. It's a fantastic portrayal of the battle between commercial viability and artistic integrity that so many people in Hollywood constantly have to struggle with, which I think will strike a chord with many of the Academy voters. The way it was shot was stunning - the majority has been made to look like it was all done in one take, and whilst it clearly wasn't, there must have been some very long takes involved in the shoot. Combined with the quick pace and lengthy, emotional tone of the dialogue, the skill that went into making it all work was extraordinary. It's also a very self-reflexive film - Michael Keaton's former superhero-portraying actor trying to reestablish some meaning and creativity into his work is a reflection of Keaton's own life as a former Batman now performing in an artsy Oscar contender. The layers, workmanship and resonance of Birdman should help it win out, and the fact that it is fresher in the Academy's heads than Boyhood should help too.
For the record, I would also love to see Whiplash win this. I suspect Birdman will have the edge again - Whiplash is a bit more intense than the usual winners in this category. That said, they voted for the insanely tense Argo a couple of years ago, so there's a chance they might go for this too...
Best Actor
Nominations:
*Michael Keaton - Birdman
*Eddie Redmayne - The Theory of Everything
*Benedict Cumberbatch - The Imitation Game
*Bradley Cooper - American Sniper
Steve Carell - Foxcatcher
Prediction:
Eddie Redmayne - The Theory of Everything
Redmayne was fantastic as Stephen Hawking in The Theory of Everything. Everything about the performance was absolutely perfect - the subtle mannerisms, the gradual emergence of Hawking's ALS, and the emotional interactions with the other characters were all handled in a mature and realistic manner. Keaton and Cumberbatch would be worthy winners too, but I'm pretty sure this will go to Redmayne.
Best Actress
Nominations:
*Felicity Jones - The Theory of Everything
Marion Cotillard - Two Days, One Night
Reese Witherspoon - Wild
Julianne Moore - Still Alice
*Rosamund Pike - Gone Girl
Prediction:
Julianne Moore - Still Alice
This is a very difficult one for me to predict. Of the two nominations I've seen, I wasn't too bothered about Jones' performance - she didn't feel realistic enough for me, and was completely overshadowed by Eddie Redmayne. I loved Gone Girl and Rosmund Pike was brilliant in it, but I suspect it was a bit too weird and sinister for the Academy's tastes. I would love to see Pike win it but I don't think she will.
Of the others, it's a very close call. Cotillard is everything that the Academy love and she has won this award before, but she wasn't nominated at the Baftas which is usually a bad sign, and Two Days, One Night is a French film so there is a chance that not enough of the voters would have seen it. I'm predicting Julianne Moore mainly because she has already won the Bafta, Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild awards, so she seems to be the frontrunner. I know Wild has been getting some very good reviews though largely on the strength of Witherspoon's performance, so it could still go either way...
Nominations:
*Felicity Jones - The Theory of Everything
Marion Cotillard - Two Days, One Night
Reese Witherspoon - Wild
Julianne Moore - Still Alice
*Rosamund Pike - Gone Girl
Prediction:
Julianne Moore - Still Alice
This is a very difficult one for me to predict. Of the two nominations I've seen, I wasn't too bothered about Jones' performance - she didn't feel realistic enough for me, and was completely overshadowed by Eddie Redmayne. I loved Gone Girl and Rosmund Pike was brilliant in it, but I suspect it was a bit too weird and sinister for the Academy's tastes. I would love to see Pike win it but I don't think she will.
Of the others, it's a very close call. Cotillard is everything that the Academy love and she has won this award before, but she wasn't nominated at the Baftas which is usually a bad sign, and Two Days, One Night is a French film so there is a chance that not enough of the voters would have seen it. I'm predicting Julianne Moore mainly because she has already won the Bafta, Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild awards, so she seems to be the frontrunner. I know Wild has been getting some very good reviews though largely on the strength of Witherspoon's performance, so it could still go either way...
Best Director
Nominations:
*Morten Tyldum - The Imitation Game
Bennett Miller - Foxcatcher
*Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu - Birdman
Richard Linklater - Boyhood
*Wes Anderson - The Grand Budapest Hotel
Prediction:
Richard Linklater - Boyhood
The premise of Boyhood is the key to its success, and Linklater not only had the idea but also the commitment to follow through with it, assembling and producing his work a little at a time over the course of 12 years. It sounds like he managed to coax some great performances from his cast, several of whom were very young children at the start of the process, and this all points to someone who really knows what he's doing. Birdman will be the biggest contender, but I think this one will go towards Boyhood.
Nominations:
*Morten Tyldum - The Imitation Game
Bennett Miller - Foxcatcher
*Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu - Birdman
Richard Linklater - Boyhood
*Wes Anderson - The Grand Budapest Hotel
Prediction:
Richard Linklater - Boyhood
The premise of Boyhood is the key to its success, and Linklater not only had the idea but also the commitment to follow through with it, assembling and producing his work a little at a time over the course of 12 years. It sounds like he managed to coax some great performances from his cast, several of whom were very young children at the start of the process, and this all points to someone who really knows what he's doing. Birdman will be the biggest contender, but I think this one will go towards Boyhood.
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominations:
Timbuktu
Wild Tales
Tangerines
Ida
Leviathan
Prediction:
Ida
Again, I can't really make a proper prediction for this category as I haven't seen any of the nominations, but Ida won the Bafta so I'm gonna go for that. I kind of want Leviathan to win it, but that's mainly because I like the name...
Nominations:
Timbuktu
Wild Tales
Tangerines
Ida
Leviathan
Prediction:
Ida
Again, I can't really make a proper prediction for this category as I haven't seen any of the nominations, but Ida won the Bafta so I'm gonna go for that. I kind of want Leviathan to win it, but that's mainly because I like the name...
Best Supporting Actor
Nominations:
Mark Ruffalo - Foxcatcher
*Edward Norton - Birdman
*J.K. Simmons - Whiplash
Robert Duvall - The Judge
Ethan Hawke - Boyhood
Prediction:
J.K. Simmons - Whiplash
This is a very easy one for me. Simmons was a force of nature in Whiplash - tyrannical, overbearing, ambitious and unpredictable. I loved every second he was on the screen and can't imagine anyone else playing that part so well. The beauty of it was that, despite his horrible personality, you felt like you could understand why his students idolised him so much, and why they got behind him despite having every reason to hate him. Edward Norton was fantastic in Birdman and I'm sure the others were great too, but I will be very disappointed if this doesn't go to Simmons.
Nominations:
Mark Ruffalo - Foxcatcher
*Edward Norton - Birdman
*J.K. Simmons - Whiplash
Robert Duvall - The Judge
Ethan Hawke - Boyhood
Prediction:
J.K. Simmons - Whiplash
This is a very easy one for me. Simmons was a force of nature in Whiplash - tyrannical, overbearing, ambitious and unpredictable. I loved every second he was on the screen and can't imagine anyone else playing that part so well. The beauty of it was that, despite his horrible personality, you felt like you could understand why his students idolised him so much, and why they got behind him despite having every reason to hate him. Edward Norton was fantastic in Birdman and I'm sure the others were great too, but I will be very disappointed if this doesn't go to Simmons.
Supporting Actress
Nominations:
*Emma Stone - Birdman
Patricia Arquette - Boyhood
*Meryl Streep - Into the Woods
Laura Dern - Wild
*Keira Knightley - The Imitation Game
Prediction:
Patricia Arquette - Boyhood
Of the nominated films that I've seen, I would definitely give this to Emma Stone. Knightley fitted perfectly into the Imitation Game and Streep was one of the better things in Into The Woods, but Stone was far more multifaceted in her portrayal of a recovering drug addict and her love/hate relationship with her father. I want her to win it, but from the clips I've seen of Boyhood I think the Academy will prefer Patricia Arquette. It looks like she has a more relatable emotional range, and she beat Emma Stone to the Bafta.
Nominations:
*Emma Stone - Birdman
Patricia Arquette - Boyhood
*Meryl Streep - Into the Woods
Laura Dern - Wild
*Keira Knightley - The Imitation Game
Prediction:
Patricia Arquette - Boyhood
Of the nominated films that I've seen, I would definitely give this to Emma Stone. Knightley fitted perfectly into the Imitation Game and Streep was one of the better things in Into The Woods, but Stone was far more multifaceted in her portrayal of a recovering drug addict and her love/hate relationship with her father. I want her to win it, but from the clips I've seen of Boyhood I think the Academy will prefer Patricia Arquette. It looks like she has a more relatable emotional range, and she beat Emma Stone to the Bafta.
Best Original Song
Nominations:
I'm Not Gonna Miss You (Glen Campbell...I'll Be Me)
Grateful (Beyond The Lights)
Glory (Selma)
*Everything is Awesome (The Lego Movie)
Lost Stars (Begin Again)
Prediction:
Everything is Awesome (The Lego Movie)
OK, there might be a bit of wishful thinking here and more than a bit of bias, but Everything Is Awesome has been one of the most iconic and memorable songs of the last year and everyone loves it. Plus this category has been won by a children's movie the last couple of years in a row (Let It Go from Frozen last year, and Man or a Muppet from the Muppets the year before), so the voters clearly have a sense of humour and a bit of a big kid in them. Plus Lego Movie wasn't nominated in the Animated Film category, which was one of this year's biggest snubs, so awarding them Best Song might be a good way of apologising. That said, there is tough competition in the form of John Legend (Glory) and Glen Campbell (I'm Not Gonna Miss You). John Legend is John Legend - his music is so likeable that it feels like he should have won an Oscar already just for the sake of it - and Glen Campbell's song was written for the documentary about his alzheimers, which gives it a bit more emotional weight than a song with the line 'I feel as awesome as an awesome possum' by the guys who sang I'm On A Boat...
Nominations:
I'm Not Gonna Miss You (Glen Campbell...I'll Be Me)
Grateful (Beyond The Lights)
Glory (Selma)
*Everything is Awesome (The Lego Movie)
Lost Stars (Begin Again)
Prediction:
Everything is Awesome (The Lego Movie)
OK, there might be a bit of wishful thinking here and more than a bit of bias, but Everything Is Awesome has been one of the most iconic and memorable songs of the last year and everyone loves it. Plus this category has been won by a children's movie the last couple of years in a row (Let It Go from Frozen last year, and Man or a Muppet from the Muppets the year before), so the voters clearly have a sense of humour and a bit of a big kid in them. Plus Lego Movie wasn't nominated in the Animated Film category, which was one of this year's biggest snubs, so awarding them Best Song might be a good way of apologising. That said, there is tough competition in the form of John Legend (Glory) and Glen Campbell (I'm Not Gonna Miss You). John Legend is John Legend - his music is so likeable that it feels like he should have won an Oscar already just for the sake of it - and Glen Campbell's song was written for the documentary about his alzheimers, which gives it a bit more emotional weight than a song with the line 'I feel as awesome as an awesome possum' by the guys who sang I'm On A Boat...
Best Original Screenplay
Nominations:
Foxcatcher
*Birdman
*The Grand Budapest Hotel
Nightcrawler
Boyhood
Prediction:
Birdman
I suspect this will be another battle between Birdman and Boyhood, although Grand Budapest Hotel and Nightcrawler will probably be strong contenders too, and for me Birdman thoroughly deserves to win. The script was full of long, quickly delivered speeches about grand themes and personal character notes, which made the film feel more like a theatre play (almost certainly deliberate, and another way the film managed to reflect its own content). I'm sure Boyhood would have had a great screenplay too but I really want to see Birdman win this.
Nominations:
Foxcatcher
*Birdman
*The Grand Budapest Hotel
Nightcrawler
Boyhood
Prediction:
Birdman
I suspect this will be another battle between Birdman and Boyhood, although Grand Budapest Hotel and Nightcrawler will probably be strong contenders too, and for me Birdman thoroughly deserves to win. The script was full of long, quickly delivered speeches about grand themes and personal character notes, which made the film feel more like a theatre play (almost certainly deliberate, and another way the film managed to reflect its own content). I'm sure Boyhood would have had a great screenplay too but I really want to see Birdman win this.
Best Animated Feature Film
Nominations:
The Tale of Princess Kaguya
*How To Train Your Dragon 2
The Boxtrolls
*Big Hero 6
Song of the Sea
Prediction:
How To Train Your Dragon 2
HTTYD2 was one of my favourite films of 2014. I've already written a separate blog about how wonderful it is so I won't go into too much detail here, but it really is a beautiful film. The quality of the animation in places is breathtaking - the way the clouds billow under the dragons' wings, the way the light reflects on the sea - but it also has some incredibly subtle details in the interaction between different characters, like Astrid absentmindedly playing with Hiccup's hair as they talk, which make it feel human and realistic. It also has the advantage of the ageing of the characters since the first film reflecting the ageing of the characters in Boyhood. I loved Big Hero 6 too, and the other three all look beautiful, but for me it has to be How To Train Your Dragon 2.
Nominations:
The Tale of Princess Kaguya
*How To Train Your Dragon 2
The Boxtrolls
*Big Hero 6
Song of the Sea
Prediction:
How To Train Your Dragon 2
HTTYD2 was one of my favourite films of 2014. I've already written a separate blog about how wonderful it is so I won't go into too much detail here, but it really is a beautiful film. The quality of the animation in places is breathtaking - the way the clouds billow under the dragons' wings, the way the light reflects on the sea - but it also has some incredibly subtle details in the interaction between different characters, like Astrid absentmindedly playing with Hiccup's hair as they talk, which make it feel human and realistic. It also has the advantage of the ageing of the characters since the first film reflecting the ageing of the characters in Boyhood. I loved Big Hero 6 too, and the other three all look beautiful, but for me it has to be How To Train Your Dragon 2.
Best Original Music Score
Nominations:
*The Grand Budapest Hotel - Alexandre Desplat
*The Imitation Game - Alexandre Desplat
*Interstellar - Hans Zimmer
Mr Turner - Gary Yershon
*The Theory of Everything - Johan Johansson
Prediction:
Interstellar - Hans Zimmer
I would have liked to have been able to say How To Train Your Dragon 2 should be winning this as well. The first one was nominated for an Oscar and lost out to The Social Network, but I'm going to go with my heart again and say I want Hans Zimmer to win. I saw him in concert last year and it was one of the most incredible gigs I've ever been to, so I want him to win as many awards as possible. And Interstellar did have a cracking score - the way it was edited into the film was fantastic, and the music itself was as grand and ambitious as the rest of the film. The Theory of Everything and The Grand Budapest Hotel also both had excellent music, and realistically it will probably go to one of them, but I'm going to stick with Interstellar.
Nominations:
*The Grand Budapest Hotel - Alexandre Desplat
*The Imitation Game - Alexandre Desplat
*Interstellar - Hans Zimmer
Mr Turner - Gary Yershon
*The Theory of Everything - Johan Johansson
Prediction:
Interstellar - Hans Zimmer
I would have liked to have been able to say How To Train Your Dragon 2 should be winning this as well. The first one was nominated for an Oscar and lost out to The Social Network, but I'm going to go with my heart again and say I want Hans Zimmer to win. I saw him in concert last year and it was one of the most incredible gigs I've ever been to, so I want him to win as many awards as possible. And Interstellar did have a cracking score - the way it was edited into the film was fantastic, and the music itself was as grand and ambitious as the rest of the film. The Theory of Everything and The Grand Budapest Hotel also both had excellent music, and realistically it will probably go to one of them, but I'm going to stick with Interstellar.
Adapted Screenplay
Nominations:
*Whiplash
*American Sniper
*The Imitation Game
*The Theory of Everything
Inherent Vice
Prediction:
The Imitation Game
Again, I would love Whiplash to win this one, but I think it's more likely to be a fight between The Theory of Everything and The Imitation Game. Of the two, I much preferred The Imitation Game - Redmayne's performance in Theory helped it to stand out, but overall the film was a lot less compelling than the Turing biopic. The writing was a big part of that - when Turing cracks the Enigma Code you can't help but get drawn into his excitement and relief.
Nominations:
*Whiplash
*American Sniper
*The Imitation Game
*The Theory of Everything
Inherent Vice
Prediction:
The Imitation Game
Again, I would love Whiplash to win this one, but I think it's more likely to be a fight between The Theory of Everything and The Imitation Game. Of the two, I much preferred The Imitation Game - Redmayne's performance in Theory helped it to stand out, but overall the film was a lot less compelling than the Turing biopic. The writing was a big part of that - when Turing cracks the Enigma Code you can't help but get drawn into his excitement and relief.
I'm a bit pushed for time now, so I'm just going to rush through the other categories with my predictions...
Best Cinematography - Birdman (for the one take premise)
Best Visual Effects - Interstellar (or possibly Dawn of the Planet of the Apes - those are some damn realistic chimps)
Best Makeup - Guardians of the Galaxy (Drax's tattoos definitely beat Steve Carell's prosthetic nose)
Best Animated Short Film - Feast (played ahead of Big Hero 6 so the only one I've actually seen, but it was very sweet)
Best Documentary Feature - No idea, I know nothing about any of them, but lets say Citizenfour (I think I've heard the name before)
Best Live Action Short - as above, I don't know enough to guess. I'll say Boogaloo & Graham, mainly because I like the name...
Best Film Editing - Whiplash (it's like a 2 hour music video)
Best Costume Design - Grand Budapest Hotel (another tough one, it could just as easily go to any of the nominees)
Best Cinematography - Birdman (for the one take premise)
Best Visual Effects - Interstellar (or possibly Dawn of the Planet of the Apes - those are some damn realistic chimps)
Best Makeup - Guardians of the Galaxy (Drax's tattoos definitely beat Steve Carell's prosthetic nose)
Best Animated Short Film - Feast (played ahead of Big Hero 6 so the only one I've actually seen, but it was very sweet)
Best Documentary Feature - No idea, I know nothing about any of them, but lets say Citizenfour (I think I've heard the name before)
Best Live Action Short - as above, I don't know enough to guess. I'll say Boogaloo & Graham, mainly because I like the name...
Best Film Editing - Whiplash (it's like a 2 hour music video)
Best Costume Design - Grand Budapest Hotel (another tough one, it could just as easily go to any of the nominees)
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