It's the Oscars tonight, so it's time for my annual blog post predicting the winners. As usual, I will put an asterisk next to the ones that I have actually seen when listing the nominees. I'm pleased to say I've seen quite a few of them this year!
Best Picture
Nominees:
* Arrival
* Fences
* Hacksaw Ridge
* Hell or High Water
* Hidden Figures
* La La Land
* Lion
* Manchester by the Sea
* Moonlight
Prediction: La La Land
I think for the first time ever, I've managed to see all of the Best Picture nominees this year and I have thoroughly enjoyed all of them. However, the one that stands out most is La La Land. I won't go into too much detail as I've written at length about it in its own post, but it's completely different to any of the other nominees. And I think the Academy will feel the same way - the fact that it is all about the magic of living and working in Hollywood will mean that it chimes with the voters even more than it did with me. Aside from that, it deserves it - it's a fantastically well made film, as reflected in the record-equalling number of nominations it's received this year.
Best Picture
Nominees:
* Arrival
* Fences
* Hacksaw Ridge
* Hell or High Water
* Hidden Figures
* La La Land
* Lion
* Manchester by the Sea
* Moonlight
Prediction: La La Land
I think for the first time ever, I've managed to see all of the Best Picture nominees this year and I have thoroughly enjoyed all of them. However, the one that stands out most is La La Land. I won't go into too much detail as I've written at length about it in its own post, but it's completely different to any of the other nominees. And I think the Academy will feel the same way - the fact that it is all about the magic of living and working in Hollywood will mean that it chimes with the voters even more than it did with me. Aside from that, it deserves it - it's a fantastically well made film, as reflected in the record-equalling number of nominations it's received this year.
Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
* Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
* Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
* Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
* Denzel Washington (Fences)
Prediction: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
This is actually quite a tough one to call, as it could very easily go to Denzel Washington. Fences' strength lies firmly in the characters, which are brilliantly acted and written, and Washington's charismatic, bitter Troy is incredibly compelling to watch. However, Affleck's performance entirely carries Manchester by the Sea. It's very nuanced and subtle, but he manages to convey some incredible emotion.
Nominees:
* Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
* Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
* Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
* Denzel Washington (Fences)
Prediction: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
This is actually quite a tough one to call, as it could very easily go to Denzel Washington. Fences' strength lies firmly in the characters, which are brilliantly acted and written, and Washington's charismatic, bitter Troy is incredibly compelling to watch. However, Affleck's performance entirely carries Manchester by the Sea. It's very nuanced and subtle, but he manages to convey some incredible emotion.
Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Isabelle Huppert (Elle)
* Ruth Negga (Loving)
Natalie Portman (Jackie)
* Emma Stone (La La Land)
Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Prediction: Emma Stone (La La Land)
Again this is a tough one to call, although in this case it's partly because I haven't seen many of the nominees. From what I've read it sounds like Huppert has a good chance too, and Portman was an early favourite, but partly because she won the BAFTA I'm predicting it will go to Stone. Again though, I genuinely think she deserves it. I've been a big fan of Stone's for a while now, and she's always given great performances. La La Land plays well to her strengths - her character is quirky and likeable and gives her an opportunity to show off her range. That said, I would love Meryl Streep to win this just to see what she says in her acceptance speech...
Nominees:
Isabelle Huppert (Elle)
* Ruth Negga (Loving)
Natalie Portman (Jackie)
* Emma Stone (La La Land)
Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Prediction: Emma Stone (La La Land)
Again this is a tough one to call, although in this case it's partly because I haven't seen many of the nominees. From what I've read it sounds like Huppert has a good chance too, and Portman was an early favourite, but partly because she won the BAFTA I'm predicting it will go to Stone. Again though, I genuinely think she deserves it. I've been a big fan of Stone's for a while now, and she's always given great performances. La La Land plays well to her strengths - her character is quirky and likeable and gives her an opportunity to show off her range. That said, I would love Meryl Streep to win this just to see what she says in her acceptance speech...
Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
* Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
* Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
* Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)
* Dev Patel (Lion)
Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)
Prediction: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
I had read a lot about Ali's performance in Moonlight before I saw the film, and was surprised by how little screentime he had. However, he did completely steal every scene he was in, as a drug dealer with a heart. It's particularly fascinating watching him wrestle with his conscience as he berates Little's mother for taking the drugs that he had sold her, when she should have been taking care of her son. Dev Patel beat Ali to the BAFTA, but I suspect it helped that he had the home advantage among the British voters - great as he is in Lion, this should go to Mahershala Ali.
Nominees:
* Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
* Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
* Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)
* Dev Patel (Lion)
Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)
Prediction: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
I had read a lot about Ali's performance in Moonlight before I saw the film, and was surprised by how little screentime he had. However, he did completely steal every scene he was in, as a drug dealer with a heart. It's particularly fascinating watching him wrestle with his conscience as he berates Little's mother for taking the drugs that he had sold her, when she should have been taking care of her son. Dev Patel beat Ali to the BAFTA, but I suspect it helped that he had the home advantage among the British voters - great as he is in Lion, this should go to Mahershala Ali.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
* Viola Davies (Fences)
* Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
* Nicole Kidman (Lion)
* Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
* Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
Prediction: Viola Davies (Fences)
Davies is fantastic in Fences as a wife trying to get by in the shadow of her husband, which is mirrored by the impressive way she manages to pull the attention away from Denzel Washington. She also manages the equally impressive feat of making her nose run on cue. I'd be very happy to see this go to Kidman or Harris, but Davies' snotty crying should be enough to win her the Oscar.
Nominees:
* Viola Davies (Fences)
* Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
* Nicole Kidman (Lion)
* Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
* Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
Prediction: Viola Davies (Fences)
Davies is fantastic in Fences as a wife trying to get by in the shadow of her husband, which is mirrored by the impressive way she manages to pull the attention away from Denzel Washington. She also manages the equally impressive feat of making her nose run on cue. I'd be very happy to see this go to Kidman or Harris, but Davies' snotty crying should be enough to win her the Oscar.
Animated Feature Film
Nominees:
* Kubo and the Two Strings
* Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
* Zootopia
Prediction: Kubo and the Two Strings
Disney has had a fantastic year this year - both Moana and Zootropolis were beautifully well made films, rich with detail and full of heart. Kubo however was one of my favourite films, possibly even my favourite of the last year. Like many of my favourite films, it's steeped in mythology and transitions comfortably between humour and tragedy. Beyond that though, the sheer craftsmanship behind it is breathtaking. Paper magically folds itself into origami warriors, giant monsters loom out of the darkness, and good and evil fight with samurai swords, all in perfect stop motion. Laika, the studio that made it (as well as Coraline and Boxtrolls), has proven itself to be every bit as good as the more famous animation studios like Disney and Pixar, and it's about time it gets the reward and recognition it deserves. It wouldn't surprise me if one of the Disney nominees wins this, but I would love to see it go to Kubo.
Nominees:
* Kubo and the Two Strings
* Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
* Zootopia
Prediction: Kubo and the Two Strings
Disney has had a fantastic year this year - both Moana and Zootropolis were beautifully well made films, rich with detail and full of heart. Kubo however was one of my favourite films, possibly even my favourite of the last year. Like many of my favourite films, it's steeped in mythology and transitions comfortably between humour and tragedy. Beyond that though, the sheer craftsmanship behind it is breathtaking. Paper magically folds itself into origami warriors, giant monsters loom out of the darkness, and good and evil fight with samurai swords, all in perfect stop motion. Laika, the studio that made it (as well as Coraline and Boxtrolls), has proven itself to be every bit as good as the more famous animation studios like Disney and Pixar, and it's about time it gets the reward and recognition it deserves. It wouldn't surprise me if one of the Disney nominees wins this, but I would love to see it go to Kubo.
Cinematography
Nominees:
* Arrival
* La La Land
* Lion
* Moonlight
Silence
Prediction: La La Land
This is a close one between Moonlight and La La Land. Moonlight is moody and atmospheric, with some beautiful lighting that really sets the tone of the film. You can tell that there is also a lot of thought that's gone into the way it's framed and shot. La La Land however gets the edge largely because of its incredible one-shot opening number on the freeway.
Nominees:
* Arrival
* La La Land
* Lion
* Moonlight
Silence
Prediction: La La Land
This is a close one between Moonlight and La La Land. Moonlight is moody and atmospheric, with some beautiful lighting that really sets the tone of the film. You can tell that there is also a lot of thought that's gone into the way it's framed and shot. La La Land however gets the edge largely because of its incredible one-shot opening number on the freeway.
Costume Design
Nominees:
Allied
* Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land
Prediction: Florence Foster Jenkins
I am not 100% sure on this one. All the nominees have either a period setting, which the Academy often likes in this category, or they have a showbusiness element to their plot allowing them to showcase some fancy frocks. Florence Foster Jenkins, although I haven't seen it, seems to combine both of those elements, so that's getting my prediction. That said, the BAFTA went to Jackie (against the same nominees) so the Academy might vote the same way.
Nominees:
Allied
* Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land
Prediction: Florence Foster Jenkins
I am not 100% sure on this one. All the nominees have either a period setting, which the Academy often likes in this category, or they have a showbusiness element to their plot allowing them to showcase some fancy frocks. Florence Foster Jenkins, although I haven't seen it, seems to combine both of those elements, so that's getting my prediction. That said, the BAFTA went to Jackie (against the same nominees) so the Academy might vote the same way.
Directing
Nominees:
* Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)
* Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)
* Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
* Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
* Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
Prediction: Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
For all of the reasons that I've already said, both here and in the La La Land review, I think this has to go to Damien Chazelle. This is only his third feature length film, and yet he's already establishing a clear style and a ridiculous number of awards nominations. He's done a fantastic job with La La Land and I'll be very surprised if the Academy doesn't reward him for that.
Nominees:
* Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)
* Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)
* Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
* Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
* Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
Prediction: Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
For all of the reasons that I've already said, both here and in the La La Land review, I think this has to go to Damien Chazelle. This is only his third feature length film, and yet he's already establishing a clear style and a ridiculous number of awards nominations. He's done a fantastic job with La La Land and I'll be very surprised if the Academy doesn't reward him for that.
Documentary Feature
Prediction: O.J.: Made in America
Documentary Short
Prediction: Watani: My Homeland
Foreign Language Film
Prediction: Toni Erdmann
Short Film (Animated)
Prediction: * Piper
Short Film (Live Action)
Prediction: La Femme et le TGV
I'm lumping these together a bit as I have only seen one of the nominees between them (Piper, the gorgeous Pixar short that was screened ahead of Finding Dory and is sure to win the Oscar). I've picked these through a combination of what I've heard about them, and whether I like their names...
Prediction: O.J.: Made in America
Documentary Short
Prediction: Watani: My Homeland
Foreign Language Film
Prediction: Toni Erdmann
Short Film (Animated)
Prediction: * Piper
Short Film (Live Action)
Prediction: La Femme et le TGV
I'm lumping these together a bit as I have only seen one of the nominees between them (Piper, the gorgeous Pixar short that was screened ahead of Finding Dory and is sure to win the Oscar). I've picked these through a combination of what I've heard about them, and whether I like their names...
Film Editing
Nominees:
* Arrival
* Hacksaw Ridge
* Hell or High Water
* La La Land
* Moonlight
Prediction: Hacksaw Ridge
Partly because it won the BAFTA, and partly because I'm running out of clips of La La Land, I'm going with Hacksaw Ridge on this one. The war scenes were brutal and that was largely down to immaculate editing, cutting quickly between shots of grisly action without it ever becoming any more confusing than it was supposed to.
Nominees:
* Arrival
* Hacksaw Ridge
* Hell or High Water
* La La Land
* Moonlight
Prediction: Hacksaw Ridge
Partly because it won the BAFTA, and partly because I'm running out of clips of La La Land, I'm going with Hacksaw Ridge on this one. The war scenes were brutal and that was largely down to immaculate editing, cutting quickly between shots of grisly action without it ever becoming any more confusing than it was supposed to.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees:
A Man Called Ove
* Star Trek Beyond
* Suicide Squad
Prediction: Star Trek Beyond
I haven't even heard of A Man Called Ove so have no idea what the makeup and hair is like in that. Star Trek and Suicide Squad both have some great examples of alien/monstrous characters with very believable makeup. However, Suicide Squad was quite badly critically panned, whereas Star Trek went down slightly better, so that might work in Star Trek's favour. Trek also benefits from a wider variety of aliens, and so a wider variety of prosthetics to show off.
Nominees:
A Man Called Ove
* Star Trek Beyond
* Suicide Squad
Prediction: Star Trek Beyond
I haven't even heard of A Man Called Ove so have no idea what the makeup and hair is like in that. Star Trek and Suicide Squad both have some great examples of alien/monstrous characters with very believable makeup. However, Suicide Squad was quite badly critically panned, whereas Star Trek went down slightly better, so that might work in Star Trek's favour. Trek also benefits from a wider variety of aliens, and so a wider variety of prosthetics to show off.
Music (Original Score)
Nominees:
Jackie
* La La Land
* Lion
* Moonlight
* Passengers
Prediction: La La Land
As a musical, it would be very surprising if La La Land didn't win this one. The jazz that infuses the film is what gives it its character. The others had some fantastic music too, especially Moonlight, but it has to go to La La Land.
Nominees:
Jackie
* La La Land
* Lion
* Moonlight
* Passengers
Prediction: La La Land
As a musical, it would be very surprising if La La Land didn't win this one. The jazz that infuses the film is what gives it its character. The others had some fantastic music too, especially Moonlight, but it has to go to La La Land.
Music (Original Song)
* "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)" (La La Land)
"Can't Stop the Feeling" (Trolls)
* "City of Stars" (La La Land)
"The Empty Chair" (Jim: The James Foley Story)
* "How Far I'll Go" (Moana)
Prediction: How Far I'll Go (Moana)
I actually think this will go to City of Stars, and again given the film's musical credentials and the fact it has two nominations in this category it's hard to see it not going to La La Land one way or another. That said, the two songs that have been nominated are probably my least favourite ones from the film - they are beautiful, but they're not as fun or as jazzy as some of the others (Another Day of Sun in particular). On that basis, I'm going to go with my favourite song of the nominees, How Far I'll Go from Moana. It's written by Lin Manuel Miranda, who just needs this award to become one of only 3 people in history to have a PEGOT (Pulitzer, Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, Tony). It's also sung by a 16 year old girl with more power and maturity than many current pop stars. Plus of course, the song itself is beautiful - full of yearning for travel and adventure. The award is almost certainly going to City of Stars, but I'd give it to How Far I'll Go...
* "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)" (La La Land)
"Can't Stop the Feeling" (Trolls)
* "City of Stars" (La La Land)
"The Empty Chair" (Jim: The James Foley Story)
* "How Far I'll Go" (Moana)
Prediction: How Far I'll Go (Moana)
I actually think this will go to City of Stars, and again given the film's musical credentials and the fact it has two nominations in this category it's hard to see it not going to La La Land one way or another. That said, the two songs that have been nominated are probably my least favourite ones from the film - they are beautiful, but they're not as fun or as jazzy as some of the others (Another Day of Sun in particular). On that basis, I'm going to go with my favourite song of the nominees, How Far I'll Go from Moana. It's written by Lin Manuel Miranda, who just needs this award to become one of only 3 people in history to have a PEGOT (Pulitzer, Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, Tony). It's also sung by a 16 year old girl with more power and maturity than many current pop stars. Plus of course, the song itself is beautiful - full of yearning for travel and adventure. The award is almost certainly going to City of Stars, but I'd give it to How Far I'll Go...
Production Design
Nominees:
* Arrival
* Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
* Hail, Caesar!
* La La Land
* Passengers
Prediction: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
This is a hard one, but Fantastic Beasts required a lot of design work to set up the wizarding world in America. The Harry Potter franchise has always done a great job of going into tremendous amounts of detail when it comes to world building. It's more fantastical than La La Land or Hail Caesar (and so has more scope for elaborate and inventive designs) but makes more use of practical effects in its world building than the CGI-heavy sci-fis Arrival and Passengers. It also has the added challenge of recreating its '50s America period setting. Plus it won the BAFTA in this category, which is a good indication that it may do well here.
Nominees:
* Arrival
* Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
* Hail, Caesar!
* La La Land
* Passengers
Prediction: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
This is a hard one, but Fantastic Beasts required a lot of design work to set up the wizarding world in America. The Harry Potter franchise has always done a great job of going into tremendous amounts of detail when it comes to world building. It's more fantastical than La La Land or Hail Caesar (and so has more scope for elaborate and inventive designs) but makes more use of practical effects in its world building than the CGI-heavy sci-fis Arrival and Passengers. It also has the added challenge of recreating its '50s America period setting. Plus it won the BAFTA in this category, which is a good indication that it may do well here.
Sound Editing
Prediction: * La La Land
Sound Mixing
Prediction: * Arrival
I've never been much good at the sound categories (I still don't entirely understand the distinction between editing and mixing). La La Land seems a pretty good bet with each of them, but Arrival is also nominated for both categories and took the award for Sound at the BAFTAs. It was a fantastic film and I'd like to see it take something!
Prediction: * La La Land
Sound Mixing
Prediction: * Arrival
I've never been much good at the sound categories (I still don't entirely understand the distinction between editing and mixing). La La Land seems a pretty good bet with each of them, but Arrival is also nominated for both categories and took the award for Sound at the BAFTAs. It was a fantastic film and I'd like to see it take something!
Visual Effects
Nominees:
Deepwater Horizon
* Doctor Strange
* The Jungle Book
* Kubo and the Two Strings
* Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Prediction: The Jungle Book
Much as I am glad to see Kubo nominated again, this one has to go to the Jungle Book. Literally everything that appeared in the film other than Mowgli was CGI, yet it looked photorealistic. The way the animals moved their mouths made it actually believable that they could talk. It was more than just a technical achievement too - the film looked beautiful, with its lush greenery, tranquil rivers and ancient crumbling temples.
Nominees:
Deepwater Horizon
* Doctor Strange
* The Jungle Book
* Kubo and the Two Strings
* Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Prediction: The Jungle Book
Much as I am glad to see Kubo nominated again, this one has to go to the Jungle Book. Literally everything that appeared in the film other than Mowgli was CGI, yet it looked photorealistic. The way the animals moved their mouths made it actually believable that they could talk. It was more than just a technical achievement too - the film looked beautiful, with its lush greenery, tranquil rivers and ancient crumbling temples.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
* Arrival
* Fences
* Hidden Figures
* Lion
* Moonlight
Prediction: Moonlight
This is a very close call between Moonlight and Fences (both adapted from the stage plays by their respective playwrights). The only reason I think it will be Moonlight is because Fences seems to be a rather direct adaptation of the stage play it is based on - I don't get the impression that it has been changed much to fit the medium of cinema. Moonlight on the other hand has accounted for the bigger set of tools that a filmmaker has at their disposal. That said, the plot of Fences revolves entirely around the writing, and the interaction between the characters, and I wouldn't be surprised if it pips Moonlight to the post.
* Arrival
* Fences
* Hidden Figures
* Lion
* Moonlight
Prediction: Moonlight
This is a very close call between Moonlight and Fences (both adapted from the stage plays by their respective playwrights). The only reason I think it will be Moonlight is because Fences seems to be a rather direct adaptation of the stage play it is based on - I don't get the impression that it has been changed much to fit the medium of cinema. Moonlight on the other hand has accounted for the bigger set of tools that a filmmaker has at their disposal. That said, the plot of Fences revolves entirely around the writing, and the interaction between the characters, and I wouldn't be surprised if it pips Moonlight to the post.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Nominees:
* Hell or High Water
* La La Land
The Lobster
* Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women
Prediction: Manchester by the Sea
Much as I loved La La Land, the beauty of it is far more in the music and visuals than it is in the writing. That's not to say that it isn't well written - it absolutely is - but I think Manchester by the Sea has the edge on it in this category. The frustration and misery of the characters that comes through in their interactions is completely relatable. Like Fences, most of the driving force behind the plot takes place off-screen or in the past, leaving space for the dialogue between the various characters to take centre stage and carry the weight of the film.
Nominees:
* Hell or High Water
* La La Land
The Lobster
* Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women
Prediction: Manchester by the Sea
Much as I loved La La Land, the beauty of it is far more in the music and visuals than it is in the writing. That's not to say that it isn't well written - it absolutely is - but I think Manchester by the Sea has the edge on it in this category. The frustration and misery of the characters that comes through in their interactions is completely relatable. Like Fences, most of the driving force behind the plot takes place off-screen or in the past, leaving space for the dialogue between the various characters to take centre stage and carry the weight of the film.
And that's everything! In summary, expect big wins for La La Land, Moonlight, Fences and Manchester by the Sea. We'll find out tonight how many of these I got right...
RSS Feed