Oscars are Awesome 2019

Having entirely failed to put any actual movie reviews on here again for another year, it's time for me to do some Oscars predictions! As usual, I'll mark the ones I've seen with a *.

Best Picture
Nominees:
*Black Panther
*BlackkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
*The Favourite
*Green Book
*Roma
*A Star is Born
*Vice

Prediction: Roma

There are lots of very strong contenders in here. As a long-time superhero movie fan it's great to see Black Panther on here, which was a brilliant film. I would be very surprised though if it wins Best Picture. There is a cynical part of me that suspects it was included to reduce the #oscarssowhite criticisms of the last few years, and to pander (panther?) more to the general moviegoing public who are starting to see the Oscars as less relevant than they used to be. Had the Academy gone ahead with the new Popular Film category then Black Panther probably would have been its first winner, but I don't think it's strong enough to be named the best film of the year. At the risk of sounding a bit nerdy, I'm not sure it was even the best Marvel film of the year - Avengers: Infinity War took bigger risks plot-wise, and accomplished the near-impossible task of giving each of its 26286486284 characters a decent moment in the spotlight (including Black Panther). 

The Favourite is my favourite. I thought it was a really unusual mixture of period drama, surreal comedy and political thriller. The acting by the three main leads is incredible and to me, it really stands out from the rest of the list. However, it does also have a lot of bad language and the combination of cursing and general weirdness might put off the Academy voters, who tend to prefer something a little safer. Until last night, I thought it would probably be Green Book, which I completely loved - it's sweet, funny, and has a strong (if a little obvious) message, as well as some terrific acting and dialogue. Rewarding its comments on racism and homophobia would give the Academy some Inclusiveness Points, but it is still uncontroversial enough to feel like a safer choice than the Favourite. Or at least, it was when it first came out. There have been several troubling stories since then that have slightly undermined the film's morale, which might be enough to put the Academy off giving it the top prize. 

Last night, I finally got around to watching Roma and I can completely see why it's been nominated for so many awards this year (10, tying with the Favourite for most nominations). It's a beautifully shot, emotionally told story that clearly came from a genuinely personal place. It also ticks all the boxes that the Academy usually likes (semi-biographical drama, disadvantaged characters, artistic style) as well as all the boxes that the Academy will want to be ticking to improve its reputation at the moment (non-white cast and director, and the Netflix platform will help show that the Academy is moving with the times). It also won Best Film at the BAFTAs, so it has good awards credentials already. 

I would be very happy for the Favourite or Green Book to win, but I think Roma is the more likely contender. 

Best Actor
Nominees: 
* Christian Bale, Vice
* Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
* Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Prediction: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

This is quite a tough one. I never got round to seeing Bohemian Rhapsody, but from what I've heard Rami Malek's performance as Freddy Mercury is far and away the best thing in it. The other nominees here are great (of the three that I've seen, I'd probably lean towards Christian Bale) but Malek has won the Golden Globe and the BAFTA so has to be the favourite. 

Best Actress
Nominees:
* Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
* Olivia Colman, The Favourite
* Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
* Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Prediction: Glenn Close, The Wife

I really, really want this one to go to Olivia Colman. She's been one of my favourite actresses on British TV for a while now and I really hope that this nomination gives her a platform for a bigger international career. She is completely compelling as Queen Anne, flicking unpredictably between funny, vulnerable, furious and contemplative. At one point in the film there is a time jump, and without anyone needing to mention it you can immediately tell that Anne has suffered a stroke in the interim, purely through Colman's performance. However, Glenn Close is the favourite in this category and all indications are that she will win it - she's beaten Colman everywhere but the BAFTAs, and I think BAFTA might have been a bit more biased towards the British actress. I haven't seen The Wife and didn't even notice it come out in the cinema so can't really comment on her performance, but she is a great actress and the fact that she hasn't won an Oscar yet is genuinely quite surprising, so I wouldn't begrudge her for it. I'm putting her as my prediction, but if Olivia Colman wins then I will be much happier for it. Plus, if her acceptance speech is half as sweet as her BAFTA one was then the world will fall in love with her even more...

Supporting Actor
Nominees: 
* Mahershala Ali, Green Book
* Adam Driver, BlackkKlansman
* Sam Elliott, A Star is Born
​* Richard E Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me
* Sam Rockwell, Vice

Prediction: Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Mahershala Ali (quite deservedly) won the Supporting Actor Oscar a couple of years ago for Moonlight, despite the fact that he was only in it for a few scenes. He is one of those actors who always makes a big impact, just as good at playing kind, sympathetic characters as he is at playing menacing villains. I always enjoy watching him but Green Book was far and away the best performance I've seen him give. His Dr Don Shirley is quiet and unassuming but at the same time manages to be the centre of whatever scene he inhabits. His speech about the difficulties he has fitting in with white and black communities is the most powerful moment of the film. There are a few other good nominees here - Richard E Grant especially deserves more recognition than he gets - but this is Mahershala Ali's to lose. 

Supporting Actress
Nominees:
* Amy Adams, Vice
* Marina de Tavira, Roma
* Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
* Emma Stone, The Favourite
* Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Prediction: Rachel Weisz

Rachel Weisz is another actress who has been a favourite of mine for a long time, and I am really glad to see her getting some deserved praise for The Favourite. Her character is very compelling - it's hard to tell whether she is in her position of power out of self-interest, political gain, or a genuine affection for and desire to look after her old friend the Queen. Weisz plays every angle, switching between aggression and tenderness, and control and desperation. Emma Stone is brilliant in The Favourite too, and the other nominees are also fantastic (If Beale Street Could Talk deserved a lot more nominations than it got), but for me this has to go to Rachel Weisz. 

Best Animated Feature Film
Nominees:
* The Incredibles 2
* Isle of Dogs
Mirai
* Ralph Breaks the Internet
* Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse

Prediction: Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse

This is a close one for me between Spider-Man and Isle of Dogs. I love Wes Anderson's films, and between Dogs and Fantastic Mr Fox he has developed a unique style of stop-motion animation that somehow fits his other films like a glove. For sheer quality of animation though, I think Spider-Man will win this. You can freeze literally any frame of that film and it will look like a panel from a comic book. The amount of thought that has gone into achieving that though is extraordinary, and much more extensive than is easy to appreciate - see the video below to see what I mean. It's also won all the awards leading up to this year's Oscars, so is easily the frontrunner in this category.

Cinematography
Nominees
Cold War
* The Favourite
Never Look Away
* Roma
* A Star is Born

Prediction: Roma

This is quite an easy one. Roma is incredibly beautifully shot. There's a fairly simple premise behind its cinematography - all the high definition of modern cinema combined with the timelessness of black and white. The result is stunning - the deep blacks and crisp contrasts really lend themselves beautifully to black and white, to the point where you almost fill the colours in with your mind's eye to create the vibrancy of life in Mexico City. There are lots of wonderfully subtle shots as well that play with the use of light, such as the reflection of a plane flying across the surface of a puddle of mop-water, or the gentle lightening of the night's sky as a forest fire strikes up in the distance. There is some wonderful cinematography in A Star is Born, especially in the concert scenes, but there's no way this isn't going to Roma.

Costume Design
Nominees
* The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
* Black Panther
* The Favourite
* Mary Poppins Returns
* Mary Queen of Scots

Prediction: The Favourite

This is another really difficult one. The Academy could easily give this to Black Panther, which had awesome costumes that showed the different tribes of Wakanda and established their various identities. I think though that it's more likely to go to one of the period dramas - The Favourite or Mary Queen of Scots. Nothing showcases great costume design better than a film set in a royal court, and these two films have three royal courts between them. The Favourite has been the more successful film of the two and it won the BAFTA, so I think it just about has the edge. 

Best Director
Nominees:
* Spike Lee, BlackkKlansman
Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
* Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
* Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
* Adam McKay, Vice

Prediction: Roma

Alfonso Cuaron has good pedigree with the Academy, having won the Directing Oscar for his last film, Gravity. Much as I loved that film, Roma feels much more like his masterpiece. It's clear from every frame that it's a project he's poured his heart and soul into. Each of the nominated films in this category showcases the personality of its director, but Roma is the only one that feels like a window into his life. Cuaron has already won the Globe and BAFTA equivalents and I see no reason why he wouldn't win the Oscar too. 

Film Editing
Nominees:
* BlackkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
* The Favourite
* Green Book
* Vice

Prediction: Vice

Although I can imagine it going to Bohemian Rhapsody for its recreations of Queen's concerts or The Favourite for its chaptered structure and title cards, I think Vice particularly deserves this award. Vice is a witty, provocative film with a lot of anger towards its subject matter, and most of that wit and anger comes from the editing. Its juxtaposition of shots of Dick Cheney calmly persuading politicians and Presidents to go to war in Iraq with shots of the effects of those decisions is chilling, and tells you the message of the film without anyone having to tell you the message through the dialogue. It's almost documentary-like in the way it presents an opinion through the way it tells you the facts. And the fact that it does so in such an entertaining and engrossing way is testament to the skill that went into the editing. 

Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees:
Capernaum
Cold War
Never Look Away
Roma
Shoplifters

Prediction: Roma

Of course it's going to be Roma. For all the reasons I've already described, it's one of the most well-made films of the year. The fact that it's the only foreign language film up for Best Film (let alone the fact that it might win best film) almost means it's already won by default. 

Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees:
Border
* Mary Queen of Scots
* Vice

Prediction: Vice

This is a bit of a difficult one between Mary Queen of Scots and Vice (Border might be in the running as well but I haven't heard of it so I'll assume not). Mary Queen of Scots had some excellent hair and makeup to turn Margot Robbie into Elizabeth I, both in the effects makeup used to create her pox scars and thinning hair, and in the more garish makeup and wigs used by the character to hide those effects. Vice's nomination in this category rides almost entirely on the makeup used to turn Christian Bale into Dick Cheney, but that is such an impressive feat that I'd be surprised if it doesn't win the day. It's reminiscent of last year's winner, Darkest Hour, and its transformation of Gary Oldman into Winston Churchill. There is no equivalent award in the Golden Globes, and the BAFTA for makeup and hair went to The Favourite, which isn't even nominated in the Oscars, but I think although Mary Queen of Scots has more in common with The Favourite, the Academy is more likely to go for Vice.

Music - Original Score
Nominees:
* Ludwig Goransson, Black Panther
* Terence Blanchard, BlackkKlansman
* Nicholas Britell, If Beale Street Could Talk
* Alexandre Desplat, Isle of Dogs
* Marc Shaiman, Mary Poppins Returns

Prediction: Ludwig Goransson, Black Panther

Another tough one, but I actually think Black Panther has a good chance here. The music fits the film perfectly, evoking the tribal African rhythms of its setting but still sounding modern and familiar. The only competition to my mind is Isle of Dogs - Alexandre Desplat has won a couple of Oscars before, and his is the only name on the list that I recognise. Isle of Dogs and Mary Poppins were the only ones on the list that were also nominated for a Golden Globe and a BAFTA, although interestingly in both cases they were beaten by films that haven't even been nominated in the Oscars (First Man and A Star is Born, respectively), so it's actually quite an open field. I wouldn't be surprised if Desplat wins it, but I'm putting my money on Black Panther.

Music - Original Song
​Nominees: 
* All the Stars, Black Panther
I'll Fight, RBG
* The Place Where Lost Things Go, Mary Poppins Returns
* Shallow, A Star is Born
* When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Prediction: Shallow, A Star is Born

Although I don't think she is likely to win Best Actress, I think Lady Gaga did an incredible job in A Star is Born, given that it was her first significant acting role (no, I'm not counting Machete Kills Again as a significant acting role). This would be a very well-deserved consolation prize. Shallow is a very lovely song in its own right that also encapsulates the heart of the film. The Star is Born and Black Panther soundtracks both did very well in the charts, but I think the fact that both Shallow and Lady Gaga actually appeared in the film (unlike All the Stars and Kendrick Lamar in Black Panther) will make Shallow more memorable in the Academy voters' minds.

Production Design
Nominees:
* Black Panther
* The Favourite
* First Man
* Mary Poppins Returns
* Roma

Prediction: Black Panther

I'm not 100% sure with this one. The Favourite won the BAFTA but, much as it would absolutely deserve the Oscar too, it's hard to know whether its Britishness made it more appealing to the BAFTA voters. Black Panther would also definitely deserve the award. It did a fantastic job of creating the world of Wakanda through the design of the sets and staging, and made fantastic use of colour to differentiate between the different tribes. At the other end of the chromatic scale, I also wouldn't rule out Roma again, but I think Black Panther was more inventive. 

Visual Effects
Nominees: 
* Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robin
* First Man
* Ready Player One
* Solo: A Star Wars Story

Prediction: Avengers: Infinity War

As I said at the beginning, I loved Avengers. It was full of incredible special effects, including fully-realised CGI characters, believable landscapes on other planets and moons, and epic sci-fi battles. Since that list encapsulates everything that the visual effects in the other nominees have to offer in combination, it would feel wrong to give any of them the award. Thanos alone would be enough to make Avengers a worthy winner. He could have looked awful (like he did in some of his cameos in the other Marvel films), but they managed to make him not only completely believable but actually fleshed out and almost sympathetic as a character. Ready Player One was a great film but the effects were deliberately low-tech to give it a computer-game feel. First Man also had some great effects, and I would gladly give anything by Damien Chazelle all the awards he can carry, but the effects were used a lot more sparingly than the other nominees. 

Adapted Screenplay
Nominees:
* The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
* BlackkKlansman
* Can You Ever Forgive Me
* If Beale Street Could Talk
* A Star is Born

Prediction: BlackkKlansman

This is actually a really tough one. If it were up to me, I'd give it to The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, which was possibly my favourite film of the year. The Cohen Brothers always write a great screenplay, and in this they effectively made 6 great screenplays that each stood apart from each other but also worked together as a whole. However, the fact that it hasn't had many nominations in the other major categories probably means that it won't win. All of the others would be worthy winners, but BlackkKlansman stands out as the one where the writing really made the film what it was. The dialogue was witty and the story was cleverly told. It also made it relevant to today's politics without being too preachy or heavy-handed. 

Original Screenplay
Nominees: 
* The Favourite
First Reformed
* Green Book
* Roma
* Vice

Prediction: Green Book

Another very close one to call. I know nothing about First Reformed, but none of the other nominees winning would surprise me. I'm going with Green Book because again, I think the writing is what makes the film great, more than anything else. It's witty but still accessible, and gives a strong message without being preachy. Plus the dialogue between the two main characters is consistently very entertaining. It doesn't do anything new - a mismatched buddy comedy is a very well-trodden formula - but it does it very effectively. 

Sound Editing
Nominees:
* Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
* First Man
* A Quiet Place
* Roma

Prediction: A Quiet Place

Sound Mixing
Nominees: 
* Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
* First Man
* Roma
* A Star is Born

Prediction: Bohemian Rhapsody

I'm doing these together because, if I'm honest, I've never really got my head around what the difference is between these two categories. I'd like to think that the Academy doesn't really understand it either, and that's why the nominations are almost identical. The BAFTAs very sensibly merge them into one Best Sound award and gave it to Bohemian Rhapsody this year which, for a film about Freddy Mercury, makes sense. On that basis, I'm making Bohemian Rhapsody my prediction for Sound Mixing, although it could just as easily go to A Star is Born (another film about music). I would love for A Quiet Place to win the Sound Editing award - it was one of my favourite films of the year and the use of sound in it was very innovative and effective. I think there's a very good chance that could also go to Bohemian Rhapsody but I'm going to stick with A Quiet Place.

Animated Short Film
Nominees:
* Animal Behaviour
* Bao
* Late Afternoon
* One Small Step
Weekends

Prediction: Bao

I managed to find most of these on Youtube today. I had already seen Bao, a Pixar short which played before Incredibles 2, and in my head it was always the one to beat. It's heartwarming, funny and completely original. Having seen the others, I'm sticking with my gut feeling. Animal Behaviour wasn't great, and Late Afternoon was beautiful but quite simplistic in its style (which can be nice, but doesn't have the impact of Pixar at its best). The only competition is One Small Step, which is also Pixar and also a beautiful little film, but it doesn't quite have Bao's originality. 

And the rest...

I'm going to rush through the other categories, as I know next to nothing about them and there is now a very real risk that I'll still be writing this blog when the ceremony starts! 

Live action short
Nominees: 
Detainment
Fauve
Marguerite
Mother
Skin

Prediction: Skin

Documentary feature
Nominees: 
​Free Solo
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons
RBG

Prediction: Free Solo

Documentary short
Nominees:
Black Sheep
End Game
Lifeboat
A Night at the Garden
Period. End of Sentence.

Prediction: Black Sheep

So that's it! The ceremony starts in about an hour tonight and I'm staying up to watch it. If anyone else is still awake and wants to leave comments agreeing or disagreeing with my thoughts, please feel free to do so below.