Having run out of time last year, my Oscars prediction blog is back! I have managed to see a lot of the big contenders this year so hopefully this will be relatively insightful. As usual, I'll list the nominees first and mark with a * those that I've seen, and then give my prediction. So without further ado, I'll dive straight into the big categories.
Best Picture
Nominees
* Top Gun: Maverick
* Women Talking
* Everything Everywhere All At Once
* The Banshees of Inisherin
* Triangle of Sadness
* The Fabelmans
* All Quiet on the Western Front
* Avatar: The Way of Water
* Elvis
* Tár
Prediction
Everything Everywhere All At Once
There are a few very strong contenders for Best Film this year. All Quiet on the Western Front won the BAFTA, the Fabelmans (drama) and Banshees of Inisherin (musical or comedy) won the Golden Globes, and Everything Everywhere All At Once won the equivalent award at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. Any of those would be a worthy winner. I think it is unlikely to go to Top Gun or Avatar, which were both hugely successful blockbusters the like of which rarely do well at the Oscars (although the fact that they have been nominated is a good sign that the Academy is starting to realise that filmmaking quality and box office success are not always mutually exclusive). At the other end of the spectrum, Women Talking and Triangle of Sadness both had very limited releases and so haven't pulled the audience numbers that most of the other nominees have, which probably limits their chances too. I think All Quiet probably had a better chance at the BAFTAs given that the UK (and the rest of Europe) gets very sentimental over anything to do with WW1 or WW2 in a way that the American Academy probably doesn't. For me personally, the two favourites here are Everything Everywhere and Banshees. They're both original stories told well with a lot of humour but also some beautiful drama and character studies. I think of the two, Everything Everywhere has a slight edge in that it has a much more out-there concept but manages to wrangle it in a way that's very easy for the audience to follow. And I would love for the Best Picture winner to be a film that partly takes place in a universe where everyone has hot dogs for fingers and in which its most touching scene features two rocks with googly eyes. But if Banshees wins I will not be shedding any tears over getting this wrong.
Best Picture
Nominees
* Top Gun: Maverick
* Women Talking
* Everything Everywhere All At Once
* The Banshees of Inisherin
* Triangle of Sadness
* The Fabelmans
* All Quiet on the Western Front
* Avatar: The Way of Water
* Elvis
* Tár
Prediction
Everything Everywhere All At Once
There are a few very strong contenders for Best Film this year. All Quiet on the Western Front won the BAFTA, the Fabelmans (drama) and Banshees of Inisherin (musical or comedy) won the Golden Globes, and Everything Everywhere All At Once won the equivalent award at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. Any of those would be a worthy winner. I think it is unlikely to go to Top Gun or Avatar, which were both hugely successful blockbusters the like of which rarely do well at the Oscars (although the fact that they have been nominated is a good sign that the Academy is starting to realise that filmmaking quality and box office success are not always mutually exclusive). At the other end of the spectrum, Women Talking and Triangle of Sadness both had very limited releases and so haven't pulled the audience numbers that most of the other nominees have, which probably limits their chances too. I think All Quiet probably had a better chance at the BAFTAs given that the UK (and the rest of Europe) gets very sentimental over anything to do with WW1 or WW2 in a way that the American Academy probably doesn't. For me personally, the two favourites here are Everything Everywhere and Banshees. They're both original stories told well with a lot of humour but also some beautiful drama and character studies. I think of the two, Everything Everywhere has a slight edge in that it has a much more out-there concept but manages to wrangle it in a way that's very easy for the audience to follow. And I would love for the Best Picture winner to be a film that partly takes place in a universe where everyone has hot dogs for fingers and in which its most touching scene features two rocks with googly eyes. But if Banshees wins I will not be shedding any tears over getting this wrong.
Best Actor
Nominees
* Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
* Austin Butler (Elvis)
* Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
* Bill Nighy (Living)
* Paul Mescal (Aftersun)
Prediction
Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
There has been a lot of talk about this being Brendan Fraser's big comeback year, although he hasn't actually won as many of the build-up awards as you might expect - he won the Screen Actors Guild award but Austin Butler won both the BAFTA and Golden Globe for drama, and Colin Farrell won the Golden Globe for musical/comedy. Both of them would also be worthy winners. Butler embodied Elvis magnificently - nowadays with all the cheesy impersonators and the public memory of Elvis in his declining years, it's very easy to forget just how big a stage presence and sex symbol he was in his prime, but Austin Butler sells that image completely. And Colin Farrell gives a beautiful performance as a man trying to understand why his best friend is suddenly refusing to talk to him. It's sympathetic and nuanced and hard to believe that this is the same man who was buried under prosthetics playing the Penguin in this year's Batman reboot. But Brendan Fraser (buried under even more prosthetics as a morbidly obese father in The Whale) gave such an incredible performance that he fully deserves the buzz he's been getting. He is warm, believable and utterly heartbreaking. And the Hollywood elite is very well aware that it owes Fraser some love after what it's put him through, which might give him the edge over Butler and Farrell.
For the record, Nighy and Mescal both thoroughly deserve the recognition too - Living and Aftersun are beautiful films that stay with you for a long time afterwards, and a big part of that is the two central performances. But Nighy is the sort of actor who could do that in his sleep, and Mescal is just starting out in his career (with a very low budget indie film, unlike the similarly fresh-faced Butler who headlined a massive Baz Luhrmann blockbuster) so doesn't quite have the clout that the other nominees do. I'm really glad they've both been nominated but I don't think they'll win it.
Nominees
* Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
* Austin Butler (Elvis)
* Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
* Bill Nighy (Living)
* Paul Mescal (Aftersun)
Prediction
Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
There has been a lot of talk about this being Brendan Fraser's big comeback year, although he hasn't actually won as many of the build-up awards as you might expect - he won the Screen Actors Guild award but Austin Butler won both the BAFTA and Golden Globe for drama, and Colin Farrell won the Golden Globe for musical/comedy. Both of them would also be worthy winners. Butler embodied Elvis magnificently - nowadays with all the cheesy impersonators and the public memory of Elvis in his declining years, it's very easy to forget just how big a stage presence and sex symbol he was in his prime, but Austin Butler sells that image completely. And Colin Farrell gives a beautiful performance as a man trying to understand why his best friend is suddenly refusing to talk to him. It's sympathetic and nuanced and hard to believe that this is the same man who was buried under prosthetics playing the Penguin in this year's Batman reboot. But Brendan Fraser (buried under even more prosthetics as a morbidly obese father in The Whale) gave such an incredible performance that he fully deserves the buzz he's been getting. He is warm, believable and utterly heartbreaking. And the Hollywood elite is very well aware that it owes Fraser some love after what it's put him through, which might give him the edge over Butler and Farrell.
For the record, Nighy and Mescal both thoroughly deserve the recognition too - Living and Aftersun are beautiful films that stay with you for a long time afterwards, and a big part of that is the two central performances. But Nighy is the sort of actor who could do that in his sleep, and Mescal is just starting out in his career (with a very low budget indie film, unlike the similarly fresh-faced Butler who headlined a massive Baz Luhrmann blockbuster) so doesn't quite have the clout that the other nominees do. I'm really glad they've both been nominated but I don't think they'll win it.
Best Actress
Nominees
Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie)
* Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
* Cate Blanchett (Tár)
Ana de Armas (Blonde)
* Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
Prediction
Cate Blanchett (Tár)
I haven't managed to see To Leslie or Blonde yet, but I think they can both be discounted - there is too much controversy over how Andrea Riseborough was nominated, and although Ana de Armas's performance in Blonde is supposed to be brilliant, the way Marilyn Monroe's character was written in that film was not very well received in Hollywood. I would be very surprised if this is the last time de Armas is nominated though - she is regularly described as the best part of the scenes she appears in (see also: Knives Out, The Gray Man, No Time To Die, the trailer for Yesterday). Michelle Williams is always great but I think the favourites this year are Yeoh (who won the SAG award and the Globe for musical/comedy) and Blanchett (who won the BAFTA and the Globe for drama). Given that, I suspect, Everything Everywhere is going to do well in a lot of other categories, I think the Academy will give this one to Blanchett for her excellent performance as a gifted but morally corrupt orchestra conductor in Tár. She starts the film as a commanding presence but lets the little fractures in her psyche start to gradually show as the film plays out, until she breaks down completely by the end in a totally believable way. It's one of the best performances in Blanchett's already very impressive career and I would love to see her take the win, but again I wouldn't be unhappy if Yeoh picks it up instead.
Nominees
Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie)
* Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
* Cate Blanchett (Tár)
Ana de Armas (Blonde)
* Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
Prediction
Cate Blanchett (Tár)
I haven't managed to see To Leslie or Blonde yet, but I think they can both be discounted - there is too much controversy over how Andrea Riseborough was nominated, and although Ana de Armas's performance in Blonde is supposed to be brilliant, the way Marilyn Monroe's character was written in that film was not very well received in Hollywood. I would be very surprised if this is the last time de Armas is nominated though - she is regularly described as the best part of the scenes she appears in (see also: Knives Out, The Gray Man, No Time To Die, the trailer for Yesterday). Michelle Williams is always great but I think the favourites this year are Yeoh (who won the SAG award and the Globe for musical/comedy) and Blanchett (who won the BAFTA and the Globe for drama). Given that, I suspect, Everything Everywhere is going to do well in a lot of other categories, I think the Academy will give this one to Blanchett for her excellent performance as a gifted but morally corrupt orchestra conductor in Tár. She starts the film as a commanding presence but lets the little fractures in her psyche start to gradually show as the film plays out, until she breaks down completely by the end in a totally believable way. It's one of the best performances in Blanchett's already very impressive career and I would love to see her take the win, but again I wouldn't be unhappy if Yeoh picks it up instead.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees
* Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)
* Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
* Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
* Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
Prediction
Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
I think this is another battle between Banshees and Everything Everywhere. Brendan Gleeson has long been one of my favourite actors and is typically brilliant in Banshees - the fact that this is his first and only Oscar nomination is a real shame. Barry Keoghan has memorably popped up in a lot of films in recent years and it's great to see him getting recognised, plus he won the BAFTA so has to be in with a bit of a shout here too. But for me this has to go to Ke Huy Quan. He is the heart and soul of Everything Everywhere, playing a range of different characters in different universes who all have some sort of relationship with Michelle Yeoh's lead character and so function as a sort of emotional anchor saving her from getting lost. He is also the source of most of the exposition and most of the humour, as well as a good chunk of the action scenes. He is, literally, everything everywhere all at once. Plus if he wins then Short Round will have won more Oscars than Indiana Jones, which is (as Short Round would put it) very funny.
Nominees
* Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)
* Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
* Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
* Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
Prediction
Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
I think this is another battle between Banshees and Everything Everywhere. Brendan Gleeson has long been one of my favourite actors and is typically brilliant in Banshees - the fact that this is his first and only Oscar nomination is a real shame. Barry Keoghan has memorably popped up in a lot of films in recent years and it's great to see him getting recognised, plus he won the BAFTA so has to be in with a bit of a shout here too. But for me this has to go to Ke Huy Quan. He is the heart and soul of Everything Everywhere, playing a range of different characters in different universes who all have some sort of relationship with Michelle Yeoh's lead character and so function as a sort of emotional anchor saving her from getting lost. He is also the source of most of the exposition and most of the humour, as well as a good chunk of the action scenes. He is, literally, everything everywhere all at once. Plus if he wins then Short Round will have won more Oscars than Indiana Jones, which is (as Short Round would put it) very funny.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees
* Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
* Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
* Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
* Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
* Hong Chau (The Whale)
Prediction
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
I think this is the widest of the acting categories and the toughest one to call. Kerry Condon won the BAFTA, Angela Bassett won the Golden Globe and Jamie Lee Curtis won the SAG award, so they are probably the favourites - Hsu and Chau both absolutely deserve to be in the list as well though. Kerry Condon was in a British/Irish film which probably gave her an edge in the BAFTAs that she might not have here, so the strongest contenders are probably Bassett and Lee Curtis. The Academy likes to show how diverse it is after the #Oscarssowhite campaign, and this year there are only two black actors across any of the acting categories (the other being Brian Tyree Henry for Causeway, which nobody has seen), so this is likely their only opportunity to avoid another year of racism allegations by giving the award to Angela Bassett. It would be a worthy win too - Wakanda Forever was not as good as the first Black Panther film, suffering as it did from a big Chadwick Boseman-shaped hole, but Bassett's performance more than any of the others in the film really felt like it carried the emotional weight of Boseman's on-screen and off-screen loss. Jamie Lee Curtis is excellent in Everything Everywhere. Like Ke Huy Quan she has to play a range of different characters as they appear in different universes, from a possessed bureaucrat to a hot dog-fingered lesbian, and you can tell she jumped on all of them with relish (no pun intended). But I think the Academy will give it to Bassett.
Nominees
* Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
* Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
* Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
* Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
* Hong Chau (The Whale)
Prediction
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
I think this is the widest of the acting categories and the toughest one to call. Kerry Condon won the BAFTA, Angela Bassett won the Golden Globe and Jamie Lee Curtis won the SAG award, so they are probably the favourites - Hsu and Chau both absolutely deserve to be in the list as well though. Kerry Condon was in a British/Irish film which probably gave her an edge in the BAFTAs that she might not have here, so the strongest contenders are probably Bassett and Lee Curtis. The Academy likes to show how diverse it is after the #Oscarssowhite campaign, and this year there are only two black actors across any of the acting categories (the other being Brian Tyree Henry for Causeway, which nobody has seen), so this is likely their only opportunity to avoid another year of racism allegations by giving the award to Angela Bassett. It would be a worthy win too - Wakanda Forever was not as good as the first Black Panther film, suffering as it did from a big Chadwick Boseman-shaped hole, but Bassett's performance more than any of the others in the film really felt like it carried the emotional weight of Boseman's on-screen and off-screen loss. Jamie Lee Curtis is excellent in Everything Everywhere. Like Ke Huy Quan she has to play a range of different characters as they appear in different universes, from a possessed bureaucrat to a hot dog-fingered lesbian, and you can tell she jumped on all of them with relish (no pun intended). But I think the Academy will give it to Bassett.
Best Director
Nominees
* Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
* Todd Field (Tár)
* Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness)
* Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
* Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
Prediction
Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
This is another strong category and tough one to call. All the directors here have been nominated for films that have also had nods in a host of other categories. Directing combines a number of skills, one of the most important of which is coaxing a strong performance from your cast, so based on their full sweeps of the acting nominations the biggest contenders are arguably McDonagh and Daniels. Spielberg has to be in the running too, having won the Golden Globe (and, you know, being as he is Steven Spielberg). The Fabelmans is semi-autobiographical and a deeply personal film to Spielberg, and although that really shines through beautifully, it can come across as slightly self-congratulatory which might put voters off. Of the other two, I think if McDonagh was going to win anything he would have won the BAFTA, which instead went to Edward Berger for All Quiet on the Western Front (not even nominated here). So I'm going to take that as a sign that this is more likely to go to Daniels.
Nominees
* Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
* Todd Field (Tár)
* Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness)
* Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
* Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
Prediction
Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
This is another strong category and tough one to call. All the directors here have been nominated for films that have also had nods in a host of other categories. Directing combines a number of skills, one of the most important of which is coaxing a strong performance from your cast, so based on their full sweeps of the acting nominations the biggest contenders are arguably McDonagh and Daniels. Spielberg has to be in the running too, having won the Golden Globe (and, you know, being as he is Steven Spielberg). The Fabelmans is semi-autobiographical and a deeply personal film to Spielberg, and although that really shines through beautifully, it can come across as slightly self-congratulatory which might put voters off. Of the other two, I think if McDonagh was going to win anything he would have won the BAFTA, which instead went to Edward Berger for All Quiet on the Western Front (not even nominated here). So I'm going to take that as a sign that this is more likely to go to Daniels.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees
* Everything Everywhere All At Once
* The Banshees of Inisherin
* Triangle of Sadness
* The Fabelmans
* Tár
Prediction
The Banshees of Inisherin
This is a toss-up between Banshees and Everything Everywhere. I'm very conscious that I keep saying 'this is a toss-up between Banshees and Everything Everywhere' and then giving it to Everything Everywhere, and it would be criminal if Banshees doesn't win something, so I am predicting the Academy has the same thought process and awards this one to Banshees. Although it's a much more straightforward concept than Everything Everywhere, Banshees relies more heavily on its script for both humour and drama, which it balances beautifully. It also won the BAFTA and the Globe, although Everything Everywhere took Original Screenplay at the Writers Guild of America awards. It could go either way but the writing in Banshees is so good it just has the edge for me.
Nominees
* Everything Everywhere All At Once
* The Banshees of Inisherin
* Triangle of Sadness
* The Fabelmans
* Tár
Prediction
The Banshees of Inisherin
This is a toss-up between Banshees and Everything Everywhere. I'm very conscious that I keep saying 'this is a toss-up between Banshees and Everything Everywhere' and then giving it to Everything Everywhere, and it would be criminal if Banshees doesn't win something, so I am predicting the Academy has the same thought process and awards this one to Banshees. Although it's a much more straightforward concept than Everything Everywhere, Banshees relies more heavily on its script for both humour and drama, which it balances beautifully. It also won the BAFTA and the Globe, although Everything Everywhere took Original Screenplay at the Writers Guild of America awards. It could go either way but the writing in Banshees is so good it just has the edge for me.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees
* Living
* Top Gun: Maverick
* Women Talking
* Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story
* All Quiet on the Western Front
Prediction
Women Talking
I don't think this will go to Top Gun or Glass Onion, which are both perfectly well-written films but seem a bit on the commercial side for this category and aren't outstanding enough scripts to overcome that. Living is beautifully written but is probably not a great bet as it hasn't had the Best Picture nomination that the other two (and Top Gun) have. That leaves All Quiet on the Western Front, which won the BAFTA, and Women Talking, which won the WGA award. It's a really close call between the two but Women Talking, as the title suggests, is a very talky film. It lives and dies on the strength of its script whereas All Quiet has a lot of action and excitement to plug the gaps between the dialogues. On that basis Women Talking seems to me to have the edge. Plus, as mentioned earlier, All Quiet probably resonated more with British audiences whose history lessons at school covered the two World Wars to (as I understand it) a far greater extent than those in America, which would give a film like All Quiet an advantage at the BAFTAs that might not be repeated across the pond (hence not getting the WGA award). I could be wrong, but I'm predicting Women Talking.
Nominees
* Living
* Top Gun: Maverick
* Women Talking
* Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story
* All Quiet on the Western Front
Prediction
Women Talking
I don't think this will go to Top Gun or Glass Onion, which are both perfectly well-written films but seem a bit on the commercial side for this category and aren't outstanding enough scripts to overcome that. Living is beautifully written but is probably not a great bet as it hasn't had the Best Picture nomination that the other two (and Top Gun) have. That leaves All Quiet on the Western Front, which won the BAFTA, and Women Talking, which won the WGA award. It's a really close call between the two but Women Talking, as the title suggests, is a very talky film. It lives and dies on the strength of its script whereas All Quiet has a lot of action and excitement to plug the gaps between the dialogues. On that basis Women Talking seems to me to have the edge. Plus, as mentioned earlier, All Quiet probably resonated more with British audiences whose history lessons at school covered the two World Wars to (as I understand it) a far greater extent than those in America, which would give a film like All Quiet an advantage at the BAFTAs that might not be repeated across the pond (hence not getting the WGA award). I could be wrong, but I'm predicting Women Talking.
Best Animated Feature
Nominees
* Turning Red
* Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio
* Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
* The Sea Beast
* Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Prediction
Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio
This is probably the easiest category to predict, as Pinocchio (and, specifically, Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio and not the awful Disney live action remake or the even more awful Russian one) has swept the board with the other awards ceremonies in this category. The others are some strong entries - Turning Red is fun and inventive, and you should never dismiss Pixar in this category, but it came out a while back now which will have hurt its chances. The Sea Beast is basically How To Train Your Dragon on a boat, which is no bad thing, but it isn't as good as any of the HTTYD films and if they didn't win any Oscars then this shouldn't either. Puss In Boots was far better than a sequel to a spin-off to a sequel to a Dreamworks film has any right to be, but I think audiences might have (wrongly) dismissed it as a franchise cash-in and not given it the attention it deserves. Marcel the Shell With Shoes On is absolutely beautiful and I think is the strongest contender to Pinocchio, but at this point this is Pinocchio's to lose. Like everything Guillermo Del Toro makes, it's dark and twisted but also sweet and soulful. The stop-motion animation is richly textured and stylised and just feels like a lot more work has gone into it than any of the other nominees.
Nominees
* Turning Red
* Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio
* Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
* The Sea Beast
* Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Prediction
Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio
This is probably the easiest category to predict, as Pinocchio (and, specifically, Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio and not the awful Disney live action remake or the even more awful Russian one) has swept the board with the other awards ceremonies in this category. The others are some strong entries - Turning Red is fun and inventive, and you should never dismiss Pixar in this category, but it came out a while back now which will have hurt its chances. The Sea Beast is basically How To Train Your Dragon on a boat, which is no bad thing, but it isn't as good as any of the HTTYD films and if they didn't win any Oscars then this shouldn't either. Puss In Boots was far better than a sequel to a spin-off to a sequel to a Dreamworks film has any right to be, but I think audiences might have (wrongly) dismissed it as a franchise cash-in and not given it the attention it deserves. Marcel the Shell With Shoes On is absolutely beautiful and I think is the strongest contender to Pinocchio, but at this point this is Pinocchio's to lose. Like everything Guillermo Del Toro makes, it's dark and twisted but also sweet and soulful. The stop-motion animation is richly textured and stylised and just feels like a lot more work has gone into it than any of the other nominees.
Best International Feature Film
Nominees
* All Quiet on the Western Front
Argentina, 1985
The Quiet Girl
Close
* EO
Prediction
All Quiet on the Western Front
This one feels like it's more of a logic-based prediction than needing any actual film analysis. All Quiet on the Western Front has been nominated for Best Picture (and many other categories) whereas none of the other films have any other nominations. If All Quiet is declared the best film of the year (which isn't beyond the realms of possibility - it won the BAFTA) then it would be ridiculous for them to say in this category that actually The Quiet Girl is better. It kind of has to win Best International Feature by default. Out of the other nominees I've only seen EO, which was great and very different to anything else that I've watched this year but doesn't have the same blockbuster qualities that All Quiet has. Argentina, 1985 is meant to be very good too. But this has to go to All Quiet.
Nominees
* All Quiet on the Western Front
Argentina, 1985
The Quiet Girl
Close
* EO
Prediction
All Quiet on the Western Front
This one feels like it's more of a logic-based prediction than needing any actual film analysis. All Quiet on the Western Front has been nominated for Best Picture (and many other categories) whereas none of the other films have any other nominations. If All Quiet is declared the best film of the year (which isn't beyond the realms of possibility - it won the BAFTA) then it would be ridiculous for them to say in this category that actually The Quiet Girl is better. It kind of has to win Best International Feature by default. Out of the other nominees I've only seen EO, which was great and very different to anything else that I've watched this year but doesn't have the same blockbuster qualities that All Quiet has. Argentina, 1985 is meant to be very good too. But this has to go to All Quiet.
Best Documentary Feature
Nominees
All That Breathes
Fire of Love
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
A House Made of Splinters
Navalny
Prediction
Navalny
I had every intention of seeing All the Beauty and the Bloodshed but it only seemed to be on once in one cinema near me and I managed to miss it. I also meant to watch Fire of Love, which is on Netflix, but haven't found the time to do that either. And the others have passed me by completely, so I can't comment much on this category. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed had some excellent reviews and the trailer looked fun, and it won Best Doc at the Independent Spirit Awards, so that is definitely a contender. Navalny won the BAFTA and the Audience Award at Sundance, so that has to be the other big favourite. Being as it is about the attempted assassination of a former Russian opposition leader, I suspect Navalny might get a few extra political votes so maybe that will give it the edge. Also I just looked up a clip to add below and it looks great.
Nominees
All That Breathes
Fire of Love
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
A House Made of Splinters
Navalny
Prediction
Navalny
I had every intention of seeing All the Beauty and the Bloodshed but it only seemed to be on once in one cinema near me and I managed to miss it. I also meant to watch Fire of Love, which is on Netflix, but haven't found the time to do that either. And the others have passed me by completely, so I can't comment much on this category. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed had some excellent reviews and the trailer looked fun, and it won Best Doc at the Independent Spirit Awards, so that is definitely a contender. Navalny won the BAFTA and the Audience Award at Sundance, so that has to be the other big favourite. Being as it is about the attempted assassination of a former Russian opposition leader, I suspect Navalny might get a few extra political votes so maybe that will give it the edge. Also I just looked up a clip to add below and it looks great.
Best Original Score
Nominees
* Justin Hurwitz (Babylon)
* Son Lux (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
* Carter Burwell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
* John Williams (The Fabelmans)
* Volker Bertelmann (All Quiet on the Western Front)
Prediction
Justin Hurwitz (Babylon)
There are plenty of potential winners here. John Williams deserves all the awards he can get, Bertelmann won the BAFTA, and there is no reason not to think that Son Lux or Carter Burwell will continue the theme of Everything Everywhere and Banshees winning everything (everywhere). But Babylon was one of the few films this year where I left the cinema with the soundtrack going through my head. It's exciting and jazzy and really captures the madcap energy of the film. I'm listening to the track embedded below as I write this and tapping my foot and trying to resist the urge to type in time to the music. Plus Hurwitz (and Babylon's director Damien Chazelle) are owed a bit of love by the Academy after the whole La La Land fiasco, and Hurwitz already won the Golden Globe in this category this year.
Nominees
* Justin Hurwitz (Babylon)
* Son Lux (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
* Carter Burwell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
* John Williams (The Fabelmans)
* Volker Bertelmann (All Quiet on the Western Front)
Prediction
Justin Hurwitz (Babylon)
There are plenty of potential winners here. John Williams deserves all the awards he can get, Bertelmann won the BAFTA, and there is no reason not to think that Son Lux or Carter Burwell will continue the theme of Everything Everywhere and Banshees winning everything (everywhere). But Babylon was one of the few films this year where I left the cinema with the soundtrack going through my head. It's exciting and jazzy and really captures the madcap energy of the film. I'm listening to the track embedded below as I write this and tapping my foot and trying to resist the urge to type in time to the music. Plus Hurwitz (and Babylon's director Damien Chazelle) are owed a bit of love by the Academy after the whole La La Land fiasco, and Hurwitz already won the Golden Globe in this category this year.
Best Original Song
Nominees
Naatu Naatu - M. M. Keeravani, Chandrapose (RRR)
* This Is A Life - Mitski, David Byrne, Ryan Lott (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
* Lift Me Up - Rihanna, Tems, Ryan Coogler (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
* Hold My Hand - Lady Gaga, Bloodpop (Top Gun: Maverick)
Applause - Diane Warren (Tell It Like A Woman)
Prediction
Naatu Naatu - M. M. Keeravani, Chandrapose (RRR)
All five of these songs are on YouTube and I'll embed them below. Lift Me Up is quite nice, This Is A Life grows on you and is probably my second favourite to win, Hold My Hand is a Big Movie Ballad that sounds like any other Big Movie Ballad, and Applause is just plain dull (Diane Warren has been nominated for an Oscar fourteen times now and hasn't won once, which is probably because her writing is so generic that at this point I don't think anyone would notice if she was just recycling the same tune with different lyrics each year). Naatu Naatu is the most fun and memorable of the five by such a long way that I'm amazed the others even got nominated. Seriously, listen to each of them (and watch the videos) in turn, save Naatu Naatu for last, and see if you can even hum any of Applause afterwards. The Academy often embraces its childish side with this category (see for example the many Disney songs that have won over the years, or the 2012 winner Man Or Muppet) so the idea of them rewarding a film where a man uses a leopard as a ballistic weapon is not completely ridiculous.
Nominees
Naatu Naatu - M. M. Keeravani, Chandrapose (RRR)
* This Is A Life - Mitski, David Byrne, Ryan Lott (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
* Lift Me Up - Rihanna, Tems, Ryan Coogler (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
* Hold My Hand - Lady Gaga, Bloodpop (Top Gun: Maverick)
Applause - Diane Warren (Tell It Like A Woman)
Prediction
Naatu Naatu - M. M. Keeravani, Chandrapose (RRR)
All five of these songs are on YouTube and I'll embed them below. Lift Me Up is quite nice, This Is A Life grows on you and is probably my second favourite to win, Hold My Hand is a Big Movie Ballad that sounds like any other Big Movie Ballad, and Applause is just plain dull (Diane Warren has been nominated for an Oscar fourteen times now and hasn't won once, which is probably because her writing is so generic that at this point I don't think anyone would notice if she was just recycling the same tune with different lyrics each year). Naatu Naatu is the most fun and memorable of the five by such a long way that I'm amazed the others even got nominated. Seriously, listen to each of them (and watch the videos) in turn, save Naatu Naatu for last, and see if you can even hum any of Applause afterwards. The Academy often embraces its childish side with this category (see for example the many Disney songs that have won over the years, or the 2012 winner Man Or Muppet) so the idea of them rewarding a film where a man uses a leopard as a ballistic weapon is not completely ridiculous.
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Best Cinematography
Nominees
* Roger Deakins (Empire of Light)
* James Friend (All Quiet on the Western Front)
Darius Khondji (Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)
* Mandy Walker (Elvis)
* Florian Hoffmeister (Tár)
Prediction
Mandy Walker (Elvis)
I'm not sure about this one, but Walker has just won the American Society of Cinematographers award, becoming the first woman to do so, and it feels like the Academy will want to follow suit. Elvis did have some incredible cinematography - the staging of the shows and the riotous use of light and colour made a lot of the film feel like an extended music video. Roger Deakins is a legend and deserves a mention, but Empire of Light hasn't had much love in the other categories so probably isn't much in the running, and I haven't even heard of Bardo outside of this list so I expect Khondji is unlikely to win too. James Friend won the BAFTA but again I don't know if the American Academy will be as excited about All Quiet as the British Academy were. And Tár was beautifully shot but it felt like the cinematography melded into the overall look of the film rather than being front and centre as it was in Elvis.
Nominees
* Roger Deakins (Empire of Light)
* James Friend (All Quiet on the Western Front)
Darius Khondji (Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)
* Mandy Walker (Elvis)
* Florian Hoffmeister (Tár)
Prediction
Mandy Walker (Elvis)
I'm not sure about this one, but Walker has just won the American Society of Cinematographers award, becoming the first woman to do so, and it feels like the Academy will want to follow suit. Elvis did have some incredible cinematography - the staging of the shows and the riotous use of light and colour made a lot of the film feel like an extended music video. Roger Deakins is a legend and deserves a mention, but Empire of Light hasn't had much love in the other categories so probably isn't much in the running, and I haven't even heard of Bardo outside of this list so I expect Khondji is unlikely to win too. James Friend won the BAFTA but again I don't know if the American Academy will be as excited about All Quiet as the British Academy were. And Tár was beautifully shot but it felt like the cinematography melded into the overall look of the film rather than being front and centre as it was in Elvis.
Best Film Editing
Nominees
* Top Gun: Maverick
* Everything Everywhere All At Once
* The Banshees of Inisherin
* Elvis
* Tár
Prediction
Everything Everywhere All At Once
In a film that takes place in multiple universes simultaneously, good editing is vital not just to sell the concept but also to make sure the audience understands what is going on and where they are at any given point. The fact that Everything Everywhere manages to do this so naturally is really quite impressive. It won the BAFTA and the comedy award at the American Cinema Editors awards (Top Gun: Maverick won the drama award) so is likely the favourite to win here too.
Nominees
* Top Gun: Maverick
* Everything Everywhere All At Once
* The Banshees of Inisherin
* Elvis
* Tár
Prediction
Everything Everywhere All At Once
In a film that takes place in multiple universes simultaneously, good editing is vital not just to sell the concept but also to make sure the audience understands what is going on and where they are at any given point. The fact that Everything Everywhere manages to do this so naturally is really quite impressive. It won the BAFTA and the comedy award at the American Cinema Editors awards (Top Gun: Maverick won the drama award) so is likely the favourite to win here too.
Best Sound
Nominees
* Top Gun: Maverick
* All Quiet on the Western Front
* Avatar: The Way of Water
* Elvis
* The Batman
Prediction
Top Gun: Maverick
I always struggle to pick the winner for Sound (although it's a lot less confusing now that they've combined the old Sound Mixing and Sound Editing categories). All Quiet won the BAFTA (because of course it did) and the Association of Motion Picture Sound award, and Top Gun: Maverick won the Cinema Audio Society award. The CAS seems to be the bigger industry one, so I suspect that is the better indicator of what the Academy will vote for. I also think Top Gun has had a lot of nominations and deserves to win something - big blockbusters usually have to accept Visual Effects as their consolation prize at the Oscars but Top Gun has some big blue competition there this year, so maybe the Academy will give it this one instead. And it does make very effective use of sound - it would be hard to hear all the big inspirational speeches with all those planes flying around otherwise.
Nominees
* Top Gun: Maverick
* All Quiet on the Western Front
* Avatar: The Way of Water
* Elvis
* The Batman
Prediction
Top Gun: Maverick
I always struggle to pick the winner for Sound (although it's a lot less confusing now that they've combined the old Sound Mixing and Sound Editing categories). All Quiet won the BAFTA (because of course it did) and the Association of Motion Picture Sound award, and Top Gun: Maverick won the Cinema Audio Society award. The CAS seems to be the bigger industry one, so I suspect that is the better indicator of what the Academy will vote for. I also think Top Gun has had a lot of nominations and deserves to win something - big blockbusters usually have to accept Visual Effects as their consolation prize at the Oscars but Top Gun has some big blue competition there this year, so maybe the Academy will give it this one instead. And it does make very effective use of sound - it would be hard to hear all the big inspirational speeches with all those planes flying around otherwise.
Best Visual Effects
Nominees
* Top Gun: Maverick
* Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
* All Quiet on the Western Front
* Avatar: The Way of Water
* The Batman
Prediction
Avatar: The Way of Water
Avatar has been nominated for Best Picture this year - probably not because it has an original story like Everything Everywhere or Banshees, and almost certainly not because it has a clever, insightful script like Women Talking or the Fabelmans. It's there because the special effects are so ridiculously good that it raises the bar for cinema. The first Avatar made people see the artistic potential of 3D and led to a renaissance of 3D films which has since subsided, largely because nobody was doing it as well as Avatar did and audiences grew tired of it, eventually seeing it as a gimmick. The sequel dropped into that landscape unashamedly bringing back the extra dimension and audiences have turned out to watch it in such high numbers that it is already one of the biggest selling movies of all time. Within the first few frames you can immediately tell that the 3D and the visual effects generally are better than anything that's been released since the first Avatar film. Combining that with James Cameron's favourite (and very VFX friendly) medium of water just makes it even more stunning to look at. There is no way this award could go to anything other than Avatar.
Nominees
* Top Gun: Maverick
* Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
* All Quiet on the Western Front
* Avatar: The Way of Water
* The Batman
Prediction
Avatar: The Way of Water
Avatar has been nominated for Best Picture this year - probably not because it has an original story like Everything Everywhere or Banshees, and almost certainly not because it has a clever, insightful script like Women Talking or the Fabelmans. It's there because the special effects are so ridiculously good that it raises the bar for cinema. The first Avatar made people see the artistic potential of 3D and led to a renaissance of 3D films which has since subsided, largely because nobody was doing it as well as Avatar did and audiences grew tired of it, eventually seeing it as a gimmick. The sequel dropped into that landscape unashamedly bringing back the extra dimension and audiences have turned out to watch it in such high numbers that it is already one of the biggest selling movies of all time. Within the first few frames you can immediately tell that the 3D and the visual effects generally are better than anything that's been released since the first Avatar film. Combining that with James Cameron's favourite (and very VFX friendly) medium of water just makes it even more stunning to look at. There is no way this award could go to anything other than Avatar.
Best Production Design
Nominees
* Babylon
* The Fabelmans
* All Quiet on the Western Front
* Avatar: The Way of Water
* Elvis
Prediction
Babylon
There are a few that could win this. I don't think it will be Avatar - characters and settings are animated so the production design is effectively part of the visual effects, and I think it will win separately for that. The others are all period pieces which often do well here as the need for the production design to evoke the period of the setting is a very easy thing to assess. I don't remember it standing out in the Fabelmans as much as the other nominees so I would personally discount that, but any of the other three could win it. I'm going for Babylon on the basis that it won the BAFTA and the Art Directors Guild award for a period feature film (beating Elvis, Fabelmans and All Quiet - Avatar was nominated for the fantasy film award but lost out to Everything Everywhere). The production designers in Babylon had a lot of work to do - there is a ton of detail in the background of the huge party scenes and film sets in the first half before moving into the more traditionally evocative period settings of the second half. The fact that there are so many film sets means the production designers had to dress fictional film sets within the main film as well as the set around them. The world of the film is generally meant to come across as either sweaty and sleazy or covered in a shiny Hollywood veneer, and the production design effectively switches between the two without it feeling disjointed.
Nominees
* Babylon
* The Fabelmans
* All Quiet on the Western Front
* Avatar: The Way of Water
* Elvis
Prediction
Babylon
There are a few that could win this. I don't think it will be Avatar - characters and settings are animated so the production design is effectively part of the visual effects, and I think it will win separately for that. The others are all period pieces which often do well here as the need for the production design to evoke the period of the setting is a very easy thing to assess. I don't remember it standing out in the Fabelmans as much as the other nominees so I would personally discount that, but any of the other three could win it. I'm going for Babylon on the basis that it won the BAFTA and the Art Directors Guild award for a period feature film (beating Elvis, Fabelmans and All Quiet - Avatar was nominated for the fantasy film award but lost out to Everything Everywhere). The production designers in Babylon had a lot of work to do - there is a ton of detail in the background of the huge party scenes and film sets in the first half before moving into the more traditionally evocative period settings of the second half. The fact that there are so many film sets means the production designers had to dress fictional film sets within the main film as well as the set around them. The world of the film is generally meant to come across as either sweaty and sleazy or covered in a shiny Hollywood veneer, and the production design effectively switches between the two without it feeling disjointed.
Best Costume Design
Nominees
* Babylon
Mrs Harris Goes to Paris
* Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
* Everything Everywhere All At Once
* Elvis
Prediction
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
This is a slightly left-field choice, as Elvis won the BAFTA and the Costume Designers Guild award for a period film (beating Babylon and Mrs Harris), and Everything Everywhere beat Black Panther to win the CDG award for a fantasy film. Period films often do well here so it could well go to Elvis, but there is a real vibrancy to the costumes in Black Panther that I think deserve more recognition here. The clothes do a lot of the storytelling for the film, whether it's helping to establish the (fictional) national identities of both Wakanda and Talokan, or displaying the Wakandans' bereavement traditions in T'Challa's funeral scene. They also help to evoke (and contrast) more well-known contemporary settings such as the visits to America. I suspect the Chadwick Boseman send-off will have resonated more with Academy voters than it did with the Designers Guild or the British Academy.
Nominees
* Babylon
Mrs Harris Goes to Paris
* Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
* Everything Everywhere All At Once
* Elvis
Prediction
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
This is a slightly left-field choice, as Elvis won the BAFTA and the Costume Designers Guild award for a period film (beating Babylon and Mrs Harris), and Everything Everywhere beat Black Panther to win the CDG award for a fantasy film. Period films often do well here so it could well go to Elvis, but there is a real vibrancy to the costumes in Black Panther that I think deserve more recognition here. The clothes do a lot of the storytelling for the film, whether it's helping to establish the (fictional) national identities of both Wakanda and Talokan, or displaying the Wakandans' bereavement traditions in T'Challa's funeral scene. They also help to evoke (and contrast) more well-known contemporary settings such as the visits to America. I suspect the Chadwick Boseman send-off will have resonated more with Academy voters than it did with the Designers Guild or the British Academy.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees
* Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
* All Quiet on the Western Front
* Elvis
* The Whale
* The Batman
Prediction
The Whale
This is another one that could very easily go to Elvis, which won the BAFTA and two awards at the Makeup and Hairstylist Guild awards (for period and/or character makeup and period and/or character hairstyling), although the Whale won at the latter for special makeup effects. The Academy often rewards films that completely transform someone through prosthetics as well as more traditional makeup (see for example Darkest Hour and Vice), and the prosthetics on Brendan Fraser in The Whale do that absolutely. Unlike Darkest Hour and Vice (and Elvis) it's not transforming him into a recognisable historical figure, but nevertheless it's a real achievement. And the fact that Fraser can clearly act through all of that only adds to the achievement. But yes, it could also be Elvis...
Nominees
* Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
* All Quiet on the Western Front
* Elvis
* The Whale
* The Batman
Prediction
The Whale
This is another one that could very easily go to Elvis, which won the BAFTA and two awards at the Makeup and Hairstylist Guild awards (for period and/or character makeup and period and/or character hairstyling), although the Whale won at the latter for special makeup effects. The Academy often rewards films that completely transform someone through prosthetics as well as more traditional makeup (see for example Darkest Hour and Vice), and the prosthetics on Brendan Fraser in The Whale do that absolutely. Unlike Darkest Hour and Vice (and Elvis) it's not transforming him into a recognisable historical figure, but nevertheless it's a real achievement. And the fact that Fraser can clearly act through all of that only adds to the achievement. But yes, it could also be Elvis...
Live Action Short Film
Nominees
An Irish Goodbye
The Red Suitcase
Le Pupille
Ivalu
Night Ride
Prediction
Le Pupille
I haven't seen any of the live action shorts this year, although apparently Le Pupille is on Disney+. I have had a little look into them though and most commentators seem to be saying it's between this, the Red Suitcase (which seems to be everyone's favourite but not necessarily the most awards-worthy) and An Irish Goodbye (which won the BAFTA for British short but is apparently a little bit cloying and ends on a fart joke). Le Pupille is produced by Alfonso Cuaron and the director Alice Rohrwacher is apparently a bit of a legend on the festivals circuit, so she likely already has a lot of fans among the Academy voters who will be keen to boost her credentials.
Nominees
An Irish Goodbye
The Red Suitcase
Le Pupille
Ivalu
Night Ride
Prediction
Le Pupille
I haven't seen any of the live action shorts this year, although apparently Le Pupille is on Disney+. I have had a little look into them though and most commentators seem to be saying it's between this, the Red Suitcase (which seems to be everyone's favourite but not necessarily the most awards-worthy) and An Irish Goodbye (which won the BAFTA for British short but is apparently a little bit cloying and ends on a fart joke). Le Pupille is produced by Alfonso Cuaron and the director Alice Rohrwacher is apparently a bit of a legend on the festivals circuit, so she likely already has a lot of fans among the Academy voters who will be keen to boost her credentials.
Best Animated Short Film
Nominees
* My Year of Dicks
Ice Merchants
* An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It
* The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
* The Flying Sailor
Prediction
An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It
A few of these shorts are on YouTube or iPlayer in whole or in part. My Year of Dicks (not as rude as it sounds - there are more penises in the Flying Sailor) is broken into parts and YouTube only seems to have parts 1 and 3, but those are great. The animation is inventive and stylish and the plot feels lifted from a teenage girl's diary, as the main character talks about her crushes and how they each let her down. It's hard to give it my vote having not been able to see all of it but I did enjoy what I have seen. The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse (which won the equivalent BAFTA) is incredibly beautifully animated - the landscapes and skyscapes are straight out of a Christmas card - but the writing is so saccharine I'm not sure it will have the same appeal among Hollywood executives as it did in Britain. The Flying Sailor is fun and poignant but very light on plot and not the most original concept. By contrast, An Ostrich Told Me... is very inventive and imaginative, telling the story of a stop-motion character having an existential crisis as he starts to notice the artificiality of his world. The concept owes a lot to the mid-credits scene of the film Boxtrolls, but it's creatively executed and very funny. I think this is a tough one to call but I enjoyed Ostrich the most.
Nominees
* My Year of Dicks
Ice Merchants
* An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It
* The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
* The Flying Sailor
Prediction
An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It
A few of these shorts are on YouTube or iPlayer in whole or in part. My Year of Dicks (not as rude as it sounds - there are more penises in the Flying Sailor) is broken into parts and YouTube only seems to have parts 1 and 3, but those are great. The animation is inventive and stylish and the plot feels lifted from a teenage girl's diary, as the main character talks about her crushes and how they each let her down. It's hard to give it my vote having not been able to see all of it but I did enjoy what I have seen. The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse (which won the equivalent BAFTA) is incredibly beautifully animated - the landscapes and skyscapes are straight out of a Christmas card - but the writing is so saccharine I'm not sure it will have the same appeal among Hollywood executives as it did in Britain. The Flying Sailor is fun and poignant but very light on plot and not the most original concept. By contrast, An Ostrich Told Me... is very inventive and imaginative, telling the story of a stop-motion character having an existential crisis as he starts to notice the artificiality of his world. The concept owes a lot to the mid-credits scene of the film Boxtrolls, but it's creatively executed and very funny. I think this is a tough one to call but I enjoyed Ostrich the most.
Best Documentary (Short Subject)
Nominees
The Elephant Whisperers
Haulout
The Martha Mitchell Effect
Stranger at the Gate
How Do You Measure a Year
Prediction
The Elephant Whisperers
Again, some of these are available on streaming services but I haven't managed to make the time to watch them, so I'm going on a tiny bit of research. The Elephant Whisperers has baby elephants, and who wouldn't want to vote for baby elephants? So that's getting my vote, although apparently Stranger at the Gate was produced by Malala Yousafzai which will probably help get it some votes too.
Nominees
The Elephant Whisperers
Haulout
The Martha Mitchell Effect
Stranger at the Gate
How Do You Measure a Year
Prediction
The Elephant Whisperers
Again, some of these are available on streaming services but I haven't managed to make the time to watch them, so I'm going on a tiny bit of research. The Elephant Whisperers has baby elephants, and who wouldn't want to vote for baby elephants? So that's getting my vote, although apparently Stranger at the Gate was produced by Malala Yousafzai which will probably help get it some votes too.
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